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iShares Trust - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (0JFU.L)

LSE - LSE Delayed price. Currency in USD
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113.10+1.01 (+0.91%)
At close: 03:50PM BST
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  • g
    gaskm
    This has been the most painful hold I've had. I need $TLT to hit $180 NOW!!!
  • M
    Michael
    earnings will be revised down and this will make the TLT a great buy as recession becomes a reality.
  • 진우
    Theoretically, at 7%, all asset markets are destroyed.
  • M
    Merenkov
    Industrial metals are rolling over. Just in the past 30 days: copper (-13%), steel (-8%), iron ore (-15%), and hot rolled coil steel (-19%). But unemployment (the most lagging of all economic indicators) is just fine, everything’s good, nothing to see here, lol…https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities
  • S
    Smertilo
    next increase .75 to 1, either or, and when it that happens then you will see TLT down to 100-105
  • T
    Tyler
    Anyone who thinks this is going to $80-$90 is delusional...so much is priced in the economy will break after another 0.75% hike no problem.
  • M
    Merenkov
    On Mondays, Wednesday and Fridays, the bond market is worried about inflation. On Tuesdays and Thursdays it's worried about the coming recession. And back and forth we go.
  • M
    Merenkov
    A lot of data will be released the next two days (Th & Fr): initial jobless claims, PCE price index, personal spending, Chicago PMI, construction spending and ISM manufacturing. Add to that the end of quarter/beginning of quarter (before a 3-day weekend!) and it should be an interesting couple of days.
  • M
    Merenkov
    2s10s close to inverting again, with yields separated by only 3 basis points. 3s/10s, 5s/10s and 7s/10s are all currently inverted.
  • b
    bob
    For those who think clearly the flight to bonds is ending. This understanding comes from simplicity. There are those who believe bonds will always strengthen as recession grows. However, currently such beliefs are foolhardy. In the future, fed rates will soon hit say 7%. It is ludicrous to believe that in a market where a bank CD or other instrument bearing 7% has no influence upon bond yields.The sovereign funds will continue will to purchase bonds, such as Japan and China, because that is their ante into the US market. But, about 75% of bonds are purchased by Americans or their firms. Surely, if you manage funds for a bank or simply cash a paycheck, why would pass on purchasing a 7% CD. No one, repreat no one would pass this to buy a treasury at say 2.5%.

    Additionally, it would be prudent to wait until treasury yields rise before purchasing so that: 1) you enjoy a better rate; and 2) will enjoy bond price increases as yields lessen.
  • A
    A
    ECB: inflation is not coming down.
  • B
    Benjo
    I am still for 80, if not 60. The inflation is sky high. It's not slowing, but heating up. Go to any store like WMT, TGT or even COST.
  • b
    bob
    BTW I am considering shorting oil or one of its sectors. The time is approaching. :-)
  • A
    Anonymous
    Bond market will increasingly price in the recession that is sure to come. The fed pivot is closer than some think. Buy things that the market currently hates. Best way to make money. They are now turning against oil stocks.
  • M
    Merenkov
    Per just-released BoJ data, Japanese institutions are dumping foreign bonds for the second week in a row. They were net sellers of ¥840 billion last week (about $6.2 billion) and about $8.5 billion the week before that. Not a good sign. For those who think it's related to US inflation, think again - it's all about the weakening yen (which earlier today hit an 18-year low versus the dollar). Sometimes bond bears can be right for the wrong reasons (at least in the short term). See Japanese foreign bond investment here: https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/foreign-bond-investment
  • M
    Merenkov
    The yield on the 2Y is a pretty good indicator of where the bond market thinks the terminal Fed Funds rate ends up. Current yield of the 2Y is around 3.40%, so maybe tomorrow we see +75 bps, July +75 bps, Sep +50 bps, and Nov +50 bps (so 250 bps total, bringing the Fed Funds rate to 3.50%). All of this assumes no major crack-ups in credit markets along the way, so we'll see.
  • R
    Richard
    Where will TLT be trading by Friday? And then by next Friday? Everyone "knows" there will be a 50 bps rate rise. The buzz now has been the Fed will go higher - 75 bps or even 100. The expectation for 75 bps starts baking in, what will happen if they do 50?

    Will there be enough energy in this uncertainty about the size of the hike to produce a large move for TLT in the short term? Looking at the weekly candles over the last 3 years, it's pretty uncommon to see them larger than $10. Discounting monsters of March 2020, $8-9 candles are outliers.

    I'm betting on a max $3.50 move off the Wed morning price, either way, by Friday close. Probably a $106-$114 window will hold the move to close the week.
  • r
    roberth
    the 30 year treasury note up 3% and 10 year treasury up 2%, so why is ETF TLT down almost 2%?
  • L
    L
    This is what Steven Van Metre's Portfolio Shield is made of! If TLT is supposed to shield SPY, what shields TLT?
  • A
    Anonymous
    Well, it should be an interesting day for the market with CPI release at 8:30. I'm thinking the core cpi comes in less than expected (probably by .1%).
    The fed raises rates next week which will get us to 1.25%. The next two rate hikes at 50 bp may or may not happen. If you look past some of the headline numbers and actually dig down into recent economic reports for the underlying facts, we have a rapidly slowing economy. The bottom 90% of people are running up huge month to month credit card debt just to survive. The vast majority of people live paycheck to paycheck with little to no savings. Layoffs have already started.....recession (possibily a major one) will be here by year's end if not sooner.