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United States Steel Corporation (0LJ9.L)

LSE - LSE Delayed price. Currency in USD
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23.09-1.45 (-5.89%)
As of 06:41PM BST. Market open.
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  • V
    Victor
    I'm quite successful investing in bitcoin after I read through a post on bitcoin & how to get started with the help of an expert trader Natalie Louis
  • N
    Native American
    I sure hope US Steel announces that they are spending all of their profit on buying back shares.
  • N
    Navarre55
    The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh. Today Wall street played Marie Antoinette. We ate cake today. Tomorrow they cut our heads off. Seems X is a great ATM for hedge funds. Hope all have dry powder. Question? How low do they take it this time. Can they take it down to the $22 range this dip again?
  • C
    Cornerlot
    “We currently expect the second quarter to be the company’s all-time best second quarter as our balanced customer portfolio, raw materials integration and operating leverage is expected to expand adjusted EBITDA and support another quarter of strong EBITDA margin and cash generation. With each quarter of record performance and continued on-time and on-budget progress on our strategic investments, we believe U. S. Steel is well positioned to earn a significantly higher multiple as we demonstrate improved earnings performance, higher free cash flow, increasing direct returns to stockholders and outstanding leadership in innovation and research and development."

    Pump it. Pump that multiple! Cmon man..
  • C
    Clancy
    Took a week off from market and missed few opportunities to buy. We as family committed to keep $90k cash for emergency.
    Just have $30k cash in IRA looking for short term trading.
  • S
    Snake.
    Stock has lost half its value down from nearly $40 bucks. Healthy stock don't behave like this...
  • N
    Navarre55
    Fun facts. NUE has a book value of $57.15 and trades at $119.01. X has a book value of $37.20 and trades at $23.35. NUE has cash of $4.17B. X has cash of $2.87B. NUE has a debt of $6.96B. X has a debt of $4.16 B. NUE has cash per share of $15.68. X has cash per share of $11.

    As I posted NUE produces about 22 million tons per year. X produces about 11.5 million tons and in 2024 with the new mini mill another 3 million tons for 14.5 million tons.

    Now X does not even trade at book value. NUE at over twice book value. Twice for X would be $74.40. Now, what is wrong with this picture when the CEO said the best quarter yet is coming in the second quarter? How do we hit $25.04 this morning to sell off to $24.29. Sounds like an ATM for shorts. Buy the dips when you get dry powder. X is oversold and trading at bargain-basement prices. Oh, and did I say they were making money. Like anyone on wall street is listening.
  • H
    HJM
    There is no escape from global macro trends, patience is key. I wounds say this is a very good time to accumulate shares. If you search for "institutional buying United States Steel Corporation" then you will get many results I just randomly opened up a couple of URLs and can see the following:
    -more buyers than sellers
    -75% institutions which is really good
    -more shares bought than sold
    -more new positions than sold out positions
    -there is a LOT more buyers in 2022 so far than there were in 2021
    -in the last 3 years inflow keeps increasing

    Conclusions: stats on X are phenomenal. Low PE, stock buyback, margin, outlook, etc...and as you know me I believe it will be like DDS was I expect $250-$300 eventually for share price. ..of course there are lot of institutions in trouble these days, they lost money so in order to show "result" to their customers it is likely that couple of the early buyers will have to sell some to color their books. It is not that they want to sell their winners but unfortunately they have to reduce positions for. Luckily it seems like these are block sales, as soon as an institution sells other interested institutions buy the shares...we all know why.....GLTA
  • C
    Charles
    How can this stock be up on the potential to remove US tariffs on unfair China subsidized imports? Dems' would throw even the unions under the bus to get elected.
  • C
    Cornerlot
    Is there anymore long term INVESTORS and not short term gamblers? Zoom out friends..There will be rewards for those that invest beyond a day or a month or a quarter..
  • K
    Kevin
    Hey a Green Positive day for X. Only need 20-25 more similar days to bring this to fair value. Way undervalued.
  • T
    Tim
    On Feb. 11, Cleveland cliff reported Q4 2021 earnings. They reported having an average steel price of $1187 per ton for 2021 compared to full year hrc average of $1600. So due to their fixed price contracts, they sold for less than spot. For 2022 they guided for an average price of $1225 even though the futures curve for the rest of the year indicated only $925 per ton. For context US steel averaged $1172 per ton in 2021 so very similar to clf. Therefore X also had fixed price contracts that prevented them from getting the $1600 per ton average. In Q4 2021, X reported an average selling price of $1432 and Clf reported $1423. In Q1 2022, where spot dropped 34%, X average price dropped to $1368 while clf actually went up to $1446 so this is a big plus for clf although X did relatively well as well. By April 22, clf reported that they expected a $1445 2022 average price as the overall futures curve was predicting a $1300 average price for 2022. So, clf benefits from the March April futures rise but now the price has come down, their average price may have gone down to the $1200+ level although they and X had a chance to lock in more fixed price contracts at higher prices. Now, I don't know how far and what percentage of contracts cliff and X have locked up but it may not be too large a discrepancy specially if hrc is above $1k. Cliff has been reporting revenues from the auto industry that make up 22 to 28% of their total revenue. Now while they have a sizable leading market share in auto, it's only about 1/4 of their revenues. With x high strength steel line and minimill footprint, I believe they will pick up share here. In any case X has been talking about fixed price contracts since at least Q3 so they also want to lock in profitable pricing. In any case I think the fixed pricing 'advantage' of clf is not enough to value them 3x relative to X base on shareholder equity. They also need a higher spot if they want an even higher valuation and that would erode any fix price contracts advantage they have. I do agree if spot continues to deteriorate then clf will perform better from a current earnings standpoint but then again their shareholder equity is nowhere near X so even in a downturn, X can still withstand better from a balance sheet perspective. Also $11+ per share earnings for X vs $6 per share this year for Clf is a lot to overcome. In any case clf is valued a lot relative to X. Whether it's justified or not is up to the market and I'd still want clf to surge as X will be there as well.
  • a
    al
    United States Steel (X) has been on a downward spiral lately with significant selling pressure. After declining 33.2% over the past four weeks, the stock looks well positioned for a trend reversal as it is now in oversold territory and there is strong agreement among Wall Street analysts that the company will report better earnings than they predicted earlier.
  • T
    Tim
    Clf vs X. The share price of both companies have generally moved in tandem but when steel futures were high the gap was over $6. Now that steel futures have come down, the gap has reduced to below $3. Clf benefits from their fixed price contracts and their strength in auto as well as lower cost operations. That definitely helps when spot is in the $700 to $800 range but does it really make a big difference at $1k+ per ton range. As I posted yesterday it doesn't seem to matter too much to warrant such a huge valuation gap. Due to about double the number of shares 520mln to 260mln, clf has to earn twice as much to have an equal per share earnings. So far the totals for 2021 and 2022 are very similar so X on a per share basis is earning twice as much. Currently clf has about $1bln more in debt and zero cash while x has $2.9 bln in cash and thus it can buy back shares. Another negative for Clf is their pension liabilities of $2.9bln compared to over funded pension for X. Clf book value reflects this reality as it's book is $12 compared to $37.2 for X. I give credit to LG and the management for making huge purchases a couple of years ago and leveraging at the right time and attacking his naysayers but hard to justify how clf could be valued at $5bln more with $3bln less in equity, which becomes more glaring on a per share level.
  • T
    Tim
    The main negatives against US steel is that when steel prices are low, margins and earnings are low and it's time to bail. That's very valid as we see the earnings the previous years. From 2017 to 2021, the average price for their flat rolled segment were $726, 811, 753, 718, and in 2021 it was $1172. The EBITDA were as follows $1.087bln, $1.76bln, $711mln, -162mln, and $5.592 bln. So there was definitely a problem when prices were low. Now, the average price in 2021 was $1172. Spot reached highs of $1900 in 2021 and up to $1600 this year so now that it is below $1000 for some months people are freaking out. But let's look at this rationally. Q1 2022 average was $1368 compared to Q4 2021 of $1432. That's with spot coming down 34%. Q2 will probably be higher than Q1 as spot recovered. As far back as Q3 2021 management already mentioned negotiating fixed price contracts 90 days earlier and even with the negative futures curve 2022 will be higher. In December update, they announced fixed price contracts resetting higher compared to other competitors with more spot exposure (interesting) and finally in last cc, the cfo mentioned 2022 fixed price contracts reset significantly higher for 2022. Now the 2nd half futures pricing was always low since last year so the Russia bump only helped them on their contract negotiations. Also the 2nd half months are still up from the start of the year despite all the recession talks and higher interests. The economic backdrop and interest hikes, semiconductor supply issues haven't been this negative either so pricing has a good chance of surging in the back half of the year. So earnings of $11+ for the year is very doable in my opinion. Now the market/short activity has brainwashed people thinking $1500 steel is the norm and if it drops the company will collapse. It's not. As I've shown the last 5 years spot at $1k with higher fixed price contracts set are very very good for the company. Earnings post to be continued.
  • T
    Tim
    At the April 29 q1 call, management mentioned increasing their buyback as shares were significantly undervalued (paraphrasing) and within a couple of weeks it falls from $32 to $24 so how lucky is that for the buyback? At the call they had just finished the $300mln initial buyback so for April they spent roughly $79mln. Now the question is how much of the $500mln will they spend out of the 2nd tranche? They mentioned they will purchase whatever free cash flow for the quarter. Now this is ambiguous as they will make $1bln give or take but I suppose they have to start paying for mini mill 2 as capex. Since free cash flow was $406mln. I'd guess they would spend at least $379mln leaving $200mln in the plan so $300mln in the $24 to $30 range would be reasonable. For the quarter..if they can buy 13 mln shares or so they can say they bought 5% of the outstanding shares! Considering the huge drop from the call and the 40% discount to book this would be an excellent purchase and good PR. Going forward I like that they set a plan of maintaining $1.5bln cash and spending on buybacks after capex expenses. So, it does seem they are 'shareholder' friendly contrary to the articles out there.
  • T
    Tim
    I've discussed the very low p/b of us steel relative to other US steel makers. Normally most investors don't even look at book value and instead focus on earnings. Also for cyclical stocks, it's not a good idea to invest on a down cycle. But what happened in the last year is unlike any up cycle. At the end of 2020, US steel shareholder equity was at $3.786bln. It increased to $9.01bln at the end of 2021, a 1 year gain of $5.2bln. It further increased to $9.698bln at the end of q1 2022. So, in 5 quarters it gained almost $6bln or 156%. That's shareholder gap gain. Now other companies trade at half book but they did not gain 156% within the last year. The current market cap is $6.36bln. Now some will argue the company shareholder equity of $3.786bln is worthless but the company had already purchased 49.9% of Big River steel in 2019 for $700mln and it has the iron ore mining assets in it which should be significantly undervalued in the books. So at the current price market price, you are basically paying for the shareholder equity gains the last year for about $400mln but remember they are about to make $1bln this quarter. That's not EBITDA but adjusted earnings so essentially by end of Q2 at the current price, you are just paying for the equivalent of equity gains in the last 6 quarters AND a bonus of $600mln. So theres a huge difference when comparing X book over some other banks book value or even MTs book. So currently it trades at .65 to equity (composed mostly of earnings in the last year and undervalued mining and Big River Steel assets) with another $1bln profit coming in this QUARTER. Will have a separate post on Big River and earnings going forward. But this is the reason the company should buy back as much as they can at these levels. Out of the $800mln in the buyback plan, they spent $150mln in Q4 and $121 in Q1 so they still have $579mln. At the earnings update they had gone over the $300mln so they still have around 500mln as of the earnings cc. So this drop definitely is a bright spot from that standpoint. Looking for them to buy at least $300mln in Q2 and announce more buybacks at the cc or the next guidance announcement next month. If the price goes even lower so much the better from a buyback standpoint and diluted shares will go down even more.
  • K
    Ken Bertg
    Are blast furnaces just worthless? Are EAF so much better that blast furnaces are basically breakeven exxcept for exceptional times (like the past year)? That's kind of what the market is saying.

    How about pig iron production? That has to be worth something. Guess not enough.

    If the rest of the world uses primarily blast furnaces, especially china, How can they compete? Lower labor? Subsidies?
  • C
    Cornerlot
    I posted earlier that DE seen growth this Q in Mining and Forestry. Two industries that demand steel along with energy and infrastructure. Should bode well for X.
  • T
    Tim
    India, just put tariffs on Indian companies that export steel. This has to be good for X and theInfastructure bill should start kicking soon!