|Bid||0.00 x 0|
|Ask||0.00 x 0|
|Day's range||26.30 - 26.30|
|52-week range||26.30 - 26.30|
|Beta (5Y Monthly)||1.38|
|PE ratio (TTM)||10.80|
|Forward dividend & yield||N/A (N/A)|
|1y target est||N/A|
These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But if you pick...
(Bloomberg) -- The next push for the global economy may come from governments instead of central banks -- and the outcome for markets could be messy.Synchronized monetary easing helped keep global stocks and bonds afloat amid a succession of bruising trade disputes and geopolitical flare-ups in 2019. But the effect may tail off soon, and an array of government spending measures designed to fuel growth may produce much more divergent results.The outlook for markets in the next year varies “drastically” from country to country in line with the ability of each to deploy fiscal stimulus, said Hannah Anderson, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. The result will be “incredibly wide dispersion” for stock markets “and quite a bit of volatility therein,” she said.Even if a consensus is building that governments will have to enact more expansionary fiscal measures, not all may be able to do so, said Sue Trinh, global macro strategist at Manulife Investment Management in Hong Kong. On metrics such as net borrowing as a percentage of gross domestic product and gross government debt levels, Japan, the U.S. and some European countries have limited scope to act, she added.Read here what Bloomberg Economists say about the future being fiscal.Inflation may also accelerate if governments start to stimulate economies at full employment while interest rates are already low, putting pressure on bonds, according to John Woods, chief investment officer for Asia Pacific at Credit Suisse Group AG. He expects equities to come out ahead in 2020, with losses anticipated for high quality fixed income.In developed markets, the U.K. is most likely to act as it attempts to deal with the consequences of Brexit, which could lead to gains for the pound, according to Standard Chartered PLC. Among emerging markets, the bank expects the most likely beneficiary to be the Russian ruble.“Fiscal expansion is growth-positive for the first year or two and is therefore usually FX-positive -- government spending generates growth and long-dated yields move higher,” analysts including Steve Englander, head of global G-10 FX research, wrote in a research report dated Dec. 2. For some emerging-market currencies from countries where interest rates are higher, the reverse is true -- and weakness in the currency could follow fiscal stimulus, the note added.Read more about how rising global debt levels may yet provide some countries with reasons to hesitate on spending“Fiscal spending tends to have a stronger and quicker impact on inflation and thus we should expect cyclical assets to perform well,” said Benjamin Jones, senior multiasset strategist at State Street. “We would expect equities to rise and outperform bonds provided we get both inflation and growth.” But if fiscal easing creates inflation without growth, both will probably perform poorly, he added.Jones expects industrials and consumer discretionary stocks to be among the best performers if more fiscal stimulus is deployed. But financials, despite their cyclical qualities, may underwhelm if central banks remain on hold, he added.Among the countries least likely to enact stimulus next year is the U.S., because of the difficulty of reaching any consensus in Congress, JPMorgan’s Anderson said. What could change that is an economic crisis, she added. Needless to say, that’s not a great proposition for stocks.“We’ve seen a lot of central banks hoping to see fiscal policy show up in their stocking this Christmas. They’re likely to be disappointed,” she said.(Adds comments from State Street beginning in eighth paragraph)To contact the reporter on this story: Gregor Stuart Hunter in Hong Kong at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Christopher Anstey at firstname.lastname@example.org, Joanna Ossinger, Brendan WalshFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world embroiled in trade wars. Sign up here. President Donald Trump’s latest missives on trade are a wake-up call to markets close to record highs that a major deadline is looming with China.The Dec. 15 flashpoint on tariffs was thrown into sharp relief Tuesday when Trump said he sees no urgency to complete a deal, right after he threatened an assortment of trading partners with levies.“If tariffs scheduled for Dec. 15 are implemented it would be a huge shock to the market consensus,” said Sue Trinh, managing director for global macro strategy at Manulife Investment Management in Hong Kong. “Trump would be the Grinch that stole Christmas,” she said.Global equities came within a whisker of their all-time high last month, propelled in part by swelling optimism that at least an interim U.S.-China trade deal was in the offing. Meantime, the clock kept ticking towards Dec. 15, when Trump has threatened to impose 15% levies on $160 billion of Chinese imports.With about two weeks to go on the China front, the Trump administration Monday hit Brazil and Argentina with steel tariffs and proposed levies on France as punishment over a tax that’s hit large American tech companies.Moves by self-styled Tariff Man Monday were enough to trigger the biggest Wall Street sell-off in eight weeks -- with a little help from a weak U.S. manufacturing report.“I have no deadline,” Trump told reporters Tuesday in London when asked if he wanted an agreement by year end. Stocks fell.The U.S. president suggested that in some ways, it might be better to wait until after the November election.The following are the views of a number of market participants on what happens if the tariffs on China kick in Dec. 15.‘Gloomy Future’It will be “definitely risk-off across the screen,” Tongli Han, chief investment officer at Deepblue Global Investment, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “What happened recently makes this trade deal more costly for Chinese leaders -- so I’m seeing a gloomy future for the short term, one-to-two months.”Better Luck Next YearWith the clock running down on 2019 and a prospects of a trade deal looking more remote it’s time for investors to take a little bit of risk off the table, said Steve Brice, chief investment strategist at Standard Chartered private bank, on Bloomberg TV.“It looks like it’s going to be pushed to the beginning of next year at the best case,” Brice said. The message to investors is “maybe trim a little bit of equity exposure, or certainly not chase the market at this stage. But look to do so in the next few weeks if we see a 5-to-7% pullback.”Longer term, Brice remains optimistic “the U.S. and China will still strike a deal of some sort. That will reduce uncertainty and help the global economy do well.”Optimism DashedFor Kerry Craig, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, a key concern is markets have already priced in the prospect of a trade deal that has yet to be signed.“There had been a lot of optimism built in around a trade deal and it’s still the thing that will weigh on markets over the coming months,” Craig said on Bloomberg TV. “In the meantime we need to see more of a pick-up in the global economy to really offset some of those uncertainties.”Buy the DipFor some, the retreat in equities at the start of the week already presents a buying opportunity.“I’d fade the correction today,” Eli Lee, head of investment strategy at Bank of Singapore, told Bloomberg TV.The renewed tariff pressures on South America and Europe are likely an effort to bolster Trump’s “tariff man” image ahead of a trade deal with China, he said.“With the economy in a very delicate situation, if this came on, it would seriously ratchet up the risk of a recession -- and the White House wouldn’t want this situation going into the 2020 presidential election next year,” Lee said.‘Wild Day’There may be some massive initial market swings in store, said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd. in a note to clients.“We could face a wild day,” he said. The S&P 500 is likely to fall about 2%, with currencies including the yuan, Australian dollar and Korean won also likely to move, he said. A relief rally may be in the offing afterward, particularly if there’s agreement to revisit talks in 2020, he said.Even Worse?“Even if there is a trade deal, it doesn’t solve most of the issues that we still have with China,” which is something that markets are going to have to reflect in time, said Christopher Smart, chief global strategist at Barings Investment Institute, on Bloomberg TV. “In fact, it probably makes the relationship more difficult to manage, because we’ve taken tariffs off the table.”Smart said “time is running out” to get a deal done this year, given the logistics involved in setting up a presidential meeting. What does offer solace is that global central banks have eased policy and injected liquidity, postponing the recession that investors had been worrying about, he said.“We would hope that a bout of common sense breaks out,” Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec, told Bloomberg TV. “Don’t forget that this situation is very volatile -- it swings to and fro. We wouldn’t interpret too strongly events of one day.”(Updates with latest Trump comments on timing for a China deal.)\--With assistance from Cormac Mullen, Andreea Papuc, Joanna Ossinger and Francine Lacqua.To contact the reporters on this story: Eric Lam in Hong Kong at email@example.com;Gregor Stuart Hunter in Hong Kong at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Christopher Anstey at email@example.com, Cecile GutscherFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
British life and general insurer Aviva Plc will keep its operations in Singapore and China, it said on Monday, two days ahead of an expected strategy update and following speculation of a sale of the Singapore business. Aviva began a review of its Asia business earlier this year under new CEO Maurice Tulloch. "Following a thorough review of options for the Singapore business, including seeking offers ... Aviva has concluded that the best value for shareholders will be achieved by retaining the business," the company said.
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Two- and-a-half years after the Indian central bank took the highly unusual step of directing banks to put 12 large corporate debtors into bankruptcy, the most closely watched of the “distressed dozen” cases has finally been resolved.With the Supreme Court in New Delhi clearing the decks for the sale of Essar Steel India Ltd., the Ruia family has accepted defeat. Control of the 10 million-tons-a-year integrated plant in western India will pass to ArcelorMittal, which will pay banks 420 billion rupees ($5.9 billion), or 90% of their claims.This final episode of a drawn-out legal saga, in which the Ruias made multiple attempts to hold on to their prized asset, was a nail-biter. At the last moment, the bankruptcy tribunal’s appellate authority had inexplicably jumped into the fray and ordered that more of ArcelorMittal’s money be given out to unsecured operational creditors and less to secured financial lenders.India’s $200-billion-plus bad debt mess is starting to attract serious global capital from pension and sovereign funds. Had expected recovery rates of 90% shriveled to 60%, private equity funds assembling this stock of patient money to take over secured lenders’ exposure would have fled. Thankfully, the court restored the power of the creditors’ committee to decide who gets what.It’s been a costly delay. When the Reserve Bank of India referred large cases to new bankruptcy tribunals, it was hoping to solve 25% of the country’s bad-loan problem in 270 days. There was interest among potential buyers, particularly for steel plants, because global metals demand was stabilizing. But with missed deadlines, lengthy litigation and suspected fraud holding back asset sales, liquidation has emerged as the default option, with only 15% of closed insolvency cases ending in a resolution plan. A lot has changed in India’s corporate distress landscape between 2016, when India promulgated its bankruptcy law, and now. For one thing, global demand for steel — and steel assets — is starting to sag. That isn’t all. With practically all sectors of India’s economy facing a demand funk, there’s trouble everywhere from real estate and roads to power and telecom.Each industry comes with its own unique challenges. In residential real estate, it’s the homeowners’ interest that makes creditor coordination difficult. In telecom, the difficulty comes from exorbitant government demands for spectrum fees. The danger of a voluntary bankruptcy filing by Vodafone Idea Ltd. has everyone from investors to the government worried. The mobile operator posted a $7.1 billion quarterly loss, the worst in India’s corporate history. A new complexity is that creditor institutions themselves — from shadow lenders to small deposit-taking banks — are becoming insolvent, prompting India to extend the bankruptcy law to nonbank lenders as well. This quick fix would further weigh on a system creaking under its case load. A steel plant can preserve value through a lengthy in-court bankruptcy by utilizing its fixed capacity. A lender has to continuously make new loans to stay in business. Without the trust of the financial markets, its enterprise value very rapidly falls to zero. Early liquidation is the best possible outcome for an insolvent lender’s creditors seeking to extract value, but it’s also the scenario that poses the biggest risk to stability of the existing financial system.The current law can’t solve this dichotomy. Rather than overburdening it, India must keep the bankruptcy tribunal focused on what it can actually handle. A recent example of overreach is the start of an insolvency petition against Aviva Plc’s local life insurance joint venture for not paying its landlord. Such things used to happen in Indonesia, where a Jakarta commercial court declared Canadian insurance firm Manulife Financial Corp.'s Indonesian unit bankrupt in 2002, and followed it up two years later by holding Prudential Plc’s local business insolvent. A higher court had to reverse those rulings. By setting right the balance between secured and unsecured lenders, the Essar judgment has scored a win above all for common sense. The verdict will rekindle hope in the integrity of India’s bankruptcy process, but it will take a lot more work to allay concerns about its effectiveness.To contact the author of this story: Andy Mukherjee at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Patrick McDowell at email@example.comThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Andy Mukherjee is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrial companies and financial services. He previously was a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews. He has also worked for the Straits Times, ET NOW and Bloomberg News.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- Sign up to our Brexit Bulletin, follow us @Brexit and subscribe to our podcast.Politics in Britain has rarely been so divided, but its warring factions are increasingly united on one thing: fiscal largesse is coming. And that could torpedo the U.K.’s high-flying bond market.Gilts that are beating Treasuries and bunds this year suddenly look vulnerable to JPMorgan Asset Management, BlueBay Asset Management and Nikko Asset Management. The money managers cite election season promises that come with big spending plans by Tory incumbent Boris Johnson and his main opponent, and the prospect of an economic recovery that will lift inflation.BlueBay and Nikko are taking short positions in the U.K. rate market; Nikko for the first time since Britain voted to leave the European Union in 2016. They reason that no matter which party emerges victorious in December, the era of fiscal austerity is over.This week Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party pledged to deliver free broadband by nationalizing a BT Group Plc unit at a cost of 20 billion pounds ($26 billion). Johnson’s Conservative Party announced plans to reopen local rail networks in “overlooked” towns and cut business rates for shops, pubs and cinemas.Read more: U.K. Labour Plans to Nationalize BT’s Broadband UnitMuch of the money for ambitious spending plans of both parties is likely to be borrowed, hitting the bond market with a wave of issuance. At the same time, prime-the-pump policies to boost growth could create inflation that erodes bond returns.Stimulative fiscal policy “implies higher deficits, and therefore much more bond supply,” said Mark Dowding, the chief investment officer at BlueBay. He’s holding bearish positions in gilt futures and sterling interest rate swaps and said he sees the 10-year benchmark climbing to as high as 2% “over time.”It’s a bold bet. History in the past decade has shown that gilt yields don’t necessarily follow supply higher. In the 2009-2010 fiscal year, when the U.K. sold a record 227.6 billion pounds of bonds to steer the economy out of recession, yields actually dropped by an average 75 basis points.Britain is headed to the polls on Dec. 12 in an election aimed at breaking the Brexit deadlock. While uncertainty remains high, bond bears have become more confident that it’s no longer a one-way bet for gilt yields. They expect the new government to use fiscal stimulus to support the fragile economy.Sajid Javid, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, and Labour counterpart John McDonnell have pledged to loosen the purse strings. Javid announced new fiscal rules this month.Read more: Javid Allows Borrowing for Investment in Revamp of U.K. RulesA day later, Moody’s Investors Service placed the U.K.’s Aa2 rating on negative outlook, saying the country’s ability to set policy has weakened in the Brexit era along with its commitment to fiscal discipline.“Fiscal stimulus will have to be deployed whatever the outcome,” said Grant Peterkin, a portfolio manager at Manulife Investment Management. He’s betting on higher long-term yields through curve steepening trades and trimmed a long position in U.K. bonds.The influx of new debt will be a bigger factor in yields than during the post-crisis years when safety was tantamount, according to Seamus Mac Gorain, head of global rates at JPMorgan Asset Management.“There might not be the same demand this time around,” said Mac Gorain. “The economy is not quite as weak as it was back then.”There are other factors that complicate a bet against bonds.The U.K. dodged a recession ahead of the now-postponed Oct. 31 Brexit deadline, but the weakest growth in almost a decade and inflation at a three-year low is keeping the tone dovish at the central bank, with some of its policy makers ready to deploy support. Two policy makers -- Michael Saunders and Jonathan Haskel -- voted for an immediate cut from 0.75% at the meeting this month.But for some, the uncertain macro outlook is overshadowed by the chance a political breakthrough will follow the election, especially if it results in a Tory majority and better chances of an orderly Brexit.The turning point for Lucas Irisik, a portfolio manager at Nikko Asset Management, came when Prime Minister Johnson’s Brexit plan was approved by the EU and passed in principle by the House of Commons (though the timing remains contentious). Irisik initiated a small short position -- and says he’ll add to it when he sees political stability and growth returning, sapping the haven trade in U.K. government bonds.“The U.K. economy, particularly in regard for investment, has been held back by an overhang of uncertainty for three years,” he said. “There’s hope that this time around we will be able to move forward in terms of Brexit after the election.”\--With assistance from Marcus Ashworth.To contact the reporters on this story: Anchalee Worrachate in London at firstname.lastname@example.org;David Goodman in London at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Samuel Potter at firstname.lastname@example.org, Cecile Gutscher, Sid VermaFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Readers hoping to buy Manulife Financial Corporation (TSE:MFC) for its dividend will need to make their move shortly...
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Discovery is targeting 500,000 insurance clients in South Africa to take regular surveys on their mental health in an extension of a programme which rewards "good" behaviours. The South African insurer's model already offers clients insurance discounts and everything from free coffee to cheap flights for buying healthy food, exercising and driving safely. Dinesh Govender, CEO of Vitality, the insurer's behaviour change programme, said the aim, as with its physical fitness scheme, was both to make its clients healthier and over time bring down the cost of claims.
The asset and wealth arm of Canada's Manulife Financial Corporation said on Monday it had opened an office in Ireland to expand its European operations and as part of planning for Britain's exit from the European Union. Banks, insurers and asset managers have been opening offices, hiring staff and moving capital to various locations across the trade bloc to ensure they can continue to serve clients in the event Britain leaves the EU without an exit deal. Currently staffed by four employees, Manulife Investment Management's Dublin office plans to hire two more people over the next six to nine months.
On a per-share basis, the Toronto-based company said it had net income of 81 cents. Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring gains, were 57 cents per share. The results surpassed Wall Street expectations. ...
Foreign insurers including Generali and Prudential Plc are in early talks with authorities to enter China's private pensions sector, people with knowledge of the matter said, as Beijing opens up to overseas companies. Hong Kong-based AIA Group and Manulife Financial are also considering similar moves, they said. Beijing gave approval to the first foreign joint-venture firm to establish a pensions insurance business last month and two of the people said China has been running pilot projects in three provinces involving foreign firms.