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American International Group, Inc. (AIG)

NYSE - Nasdaq Real-time price. Currency in USD
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61.91+0.04 (+0.06%)
At close: 04:00PM EST
61.91 0.00 (0.00%)
After hours: 05:39PM EST
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  • q
    queenie
    Hard to believe I've had this stock in my IRA since 2008 and don't even have a gain to show for it.
  • a
    aabbg
    AIG + ALPP + AABB Gold-backed crypto Aabbg stock before Dec 28 th.
  • J
    James
    still no hype no excitement, but the company and others are buying. this is a 75 at stock.
  • G
    Gator
    Don't worry they are holding a lot of AMC shares
  • J
    John
    Positive on liquidity from the earnings call. Ended the quarter with 5.3 Billion of liquidity, they sold a 9.9% of L & R in Q4 for 2.2 Billion, should earn 1 Billion in Q4 and sell the affordable housing assets for another 4.4 Billion. That's roughly 13 Billion excluding a sale of the remaining L & R stake. Sounded like they were considering going about a 20% total number on the IPO but getting to the 20% would give then another 2.2 Billion for a total of 15.3 Billion.
    They have already committed to 1 Billion of debt reduction and 1 Billion of buybacks in Q4 so a net of 13.3 Billion. Seems like they are comfortable at 5 Billion so that leaves 8 Billion for buybacks. As mentioned prior the current P & C market cap is roughly 27 Billion(including the addition 1 Billion buyback in Q4).
    With a ratio under 90% for 22, P & C could earn 7 Billion pre-tax and they shouldn't have to cash pay taxes due to the NOL.
    27 Billion current cap, less 8 Billion additional buyback gives you a 19 Billion stock that could earn 7 Billion pre-tax. That's a very long way of saying it's really cheap here.
  • J
    James
    still no rara just buybacks and bond reductions saving between 100 and 200 million a year. this will be in the 70s next year
  • j
    josh
    (AIG) reported Q3 adjusted after-tax earnings of $0.97 per diluted share, compared with $0.81 a year earlier.

    Analysts polled by Capital IQ expected $0.92.

    Net investment income for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was $3.72 billion, down from $3.80 billion a year earlier. Analysts polled by Capital IQ expected $2.87 billion.

    The insurance company's board maintained a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share, payable Dec. 30 to shareholders of record on Dec. 16.
  • J
    James
    got to love it. no noise great liquidity low price buybacks and blackstone does not invest in losers. the value of the two companies will be in the seventies next year.
  • j
    josh
    11/8/21
    RBC Raises Price American International Group, Inc. (AIG) $65.00 ➝ $73.00 Outperform
  • T
    Tom
    So far the new ceo doing great job taking the share holders down
  • j
    josh
    11/9/21
    UBS Raises Price American International Group, Inc. (AIG) $64.00 ->$65.00
  • J
    John
    "Short-termism"driving AIG's excessive ceding?

    As has been mention in prior posts, AIG cedes premium at a much greater rate than Chubb. In 2020 AIG Ceded 11 billion vs Chubb's 7 Billion a difference of 4 Billion. I've adjusted the numbers for Chubb's having roughly 14% greater gross written premium than AIG.
    What does AIG get for this extra $4 Billion - their catastrophic losses were 1.5 Billion less than Chubb's and we are running at about the same differential this year. That's 2.5 BILLION of lost income before taxes.
    AIG consistently cites "reduction in volatility" as it's reason for so much ceding. I don't know about you but I'll take a really large catastrophic loss in a quarter or two(short term thinking) if I'm getting an additional 2.5 Billion over the course of the year.
    Their thinking on this issue is very hard to understand.
  • J
    John
    Trying to figure out when stock tanked during CC and believe it was when they said net 2020 premium was going to be flat with 19 at 25 billion. AIG ceded 28% of their premiums in 2019 vs 22% in 2018 vs Chubbs 20% in 2019. That 8% difference between them and Chubb is worth 2.7 billion pre-tax, and we know AIG doesn't have to cash pay taxes for a while. The 5% move for them from 18 to 19 was 1.9 billion difference in net premium. Perplexed why/how they can reduce limits and increase deductibles and get huge price increases yoy BUT they still need to increase reinsurance ceded by 5% and do it at a rate 40% worse than Chubb. What kind of policies had they been writing in the past? Perhaps they should tell us occasionally what the Cat Losses would have been had they not reinsured. It's hard to fathom they would need to give up 2.6 billion to what Chubb is doing to protect against CAT losses. Again, what kind of risk were you taking in 2018 when you ceded 1.9 billion less in premium and your deductibles and limits were apparently 50% greater than in 2019. I guess another way to check the CAT loss protection out is to see what AIG's 2019 CAT losses were vs. Chubb's. What do we get for the 2.6 billion. I will check that and get back to you.
  • K
    Kaptain
    Baby Steps: I expected AIG to crush earnings, but the beat was only modest. I get the impression that running an insurance operation is like herding cats. Results from positive initiatives are so amorphous and slow. We are deep into Brian's second year and he's still struggling to recover the stock price that Peter left him with. I feel more relieved than grateful with this report.
  • J
    John
    Appear to be adding tremendous liquidity which should speed debt reduction(assuming debt is callable) and more importantly buybacks. Investment book in L & R was sold in July for 6.8 billion minimum(that was value of investments). Affordable housing will be sold in fourth quarter with 4 billion cash being sent to the parent. 2.2 billion dollars from Blackstone L & R 9.9% deal and then another 2 billion potential from the L & R IPO. Was hard to decipher but it appeared they were intimating on the call that the L & R IPO may go above another 9.9% which would mean more than 2 billion. That's almost 15 BILLION of liquidity excluding earnings. I've cited several times about how they are overcapitalized at both P&C and L&R so it makes sense they would sell investments for cash and then put that cash to work in some fashion.
    The value of P&C is now roughly 21 billion if you assume the Blackstone valuation of L & R at 22 billion is accurate. Where will they put the 15 BILLION to work? Could they do it all, except the 2 billion buyback in 21? That means 13 BILLION and that excludes earnings for the next two quarters with last quarter's earnings at 1.3 BILLION.
  • K
    Kaptain
    If you saw me climbing a tree for apples, and you saw the best fruit at arm's length from the ground, would you naturally ask me why I haven't bothered to pick that fruit too? What if my response was that, I'm just too busy climbing this tree, because " it's hard, but I'm really good at it"?

    Obviously the proverbial "low hanging fruit" are stock buybacks, the higher fruit are the harder and riskier underwriting selection and corporate reorganization. While I'd like to think they can do that too, it frustrates me to think they cannot free up a $billion or two per year to buy back stock at such a steep discount. Seriously? They are going to retire 4% debt, when the dividends alone saved on buybacks would be over 2.6%, and the instant tangible booked profit would be 16+%. That's not even counting the very real value in the other 30+% booked for DTAs and AOCI. Brian may know how to grow apples, but he sure doesn't know how to pick them.
  • K
    Kaptain
    Looks like today is the end of the road for us warrant holders. Some ask why they still have any value at all? My guess is two reasons: Small traders often confuse the conversion of $42.23 per 1.067 shares (wrong) for the actual $42.23 per share ($45.07 per 1.067 shares). Larger traders are betting on cashing in, at least to some extent, on the class action lawsuit that is certain to happen. Brian's missteps, by paying too much for acquisitions with little impact, and foregoing all buybacks (hugely profitable) that weren't forced upon him, hurt the shareholders and killed the warrant holders, implicitly his most ardent supporters. This was not about Covid or cat losses. It was about Brian not measuring up operationally, and putting his ego ahead of all the stakeholders. Thank you, Brian!
  • K
    Kaptain
    The CC was surprisingly strong. The bottom line was ugly, no doubt. But they were surprisingly detailed and confident that they could achieve profitable underwriting and 8% ROE for 2019. I don't expect huge upside, but I do think our losses will moderate after the analysts have had time to weigh in. The buyback program was not as neglected as I thought either They might pick up another 40-50M shares during the year as well.
  • R
    ROLAND
    Regarding warrants, AIG can change the terms of the warrants. They may not do it as part of their game plan!!!

    WHEREAS, pursuant to the terms of Section 14 of the Warrant Agreement, the Company and the Holder have the power to amend and modify the terms of the Warrant Agreement.
  • J
    John
    Listened to call and can't imagine they won't extend the warrant expiration date(if necessary). They are hell bent on reducing debt, even more so now that they are splitting. Assuming our/my understanding of the warrant transaction is correct(meaning warrant holders pay 42.25 for each share). Also, I did a 5 year chart on Yahoo and for the majority of the time it's at 60, never mind 45. They could use Covid as justification for the extension and I'm not sure they need justification.

    Unfortunately and as usual the topic was not discussed.