|Bid||187.82 x 214900|
|Ask||187.86 x 10000|
|Day's range||186.56 - 189.86|
|52-week range||117.10 - 232.60|
|Beta (5Y monthly)||1.13|
|PE ratio (TTM)||10.69|
|Earnings date||05 Aug 2020|
|Forward dividend & yield||9.60 (5.21%)|
|Ex-dividend date||07 May 2020|
|1y target est||213.69|
The Allianz Se (ETR:ALV) share price has risen by 18.8% over the past month and it’s currently trading at 182.02. For investors considering whether to buy, hol...
Allianz <ALVG.DE> is in talks with Chinese regulators for a licence as the German insurer looks to eventually offer broad asset management services in the world's second-largest economy. Discussions for a licence to manage its own assets in China are at an early stage, Solmaz Altin, its chief executive in Asia, told Reuters, adding he hoped to launch the business in the first half of 2021. Hong Kong's status as a global financial hub faces some uncertainty with the United States moving to eliminate its special status after Beijing announced it would impose a new national security law there.
Allianz Real Estate sees an opportunity to expand its asset allocation in Asia to 10-15% in the medium term, the investment manager's regional head said after it agreed to buy a A$648 million ($447 million) Australian logistics portfolio with a joint venture. Allianz Real Estate had 5.5 billion euros of assets under management in Asia Pacific as of end-2019, or about 7.5% of its global total.
A U.S. judge on Thursday said institutional investors, including BlackRock Inc <BLK.N> and Allianz SE's <ALVG.DE> Pacific Investment Management Co, can pursue much of their lawsuit accusing 15 major banks of rigging prices in the $6.6 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market. U.S. District Judge Lorna Schofield in Manhattan said the nearly 1,300 plaintiffs, including many mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, plausibly alleged that the banks conspired to rig currency benchmarks from 2003 to 2013 and profit at their expense. "This is an injury of the type the antitrust laws were intended to prevent," Schofield wrote in a 40-page decision.
Given the volatility in financial markets caused by Covid, it is becoming difficult to assess whether previous dividend forecasts are still useful. Dividend pa...
Lloyd's of London is likely to pay out $3.0-4.3 billion in claims related to the coronavirus pandemic and underwriting and investment losses for the global non-life insurance sector could reach a record $203 billion, Lloyd's said on Thursday. "I don't think anyone in our industry has ever seen both happen at once," Lloyd's Chief Executive John Neal told Reuters. Insured losses are likely to total $107 billion, similar to natural catastrophe losses in 2005 led by Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma and to 2017 including Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria, Lloyd's said.
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- The year started well for Pacific Investment Management Co., the fixed-income asset manager owned by German insurer Allianz SE. After pulling in 83 billion euros ($90 billion) of fresh cash from investors in 2019, the firm continued to attract new money in January and February. Then the global pandemic struck. Investor withdrawals equaled almost half of last year’s inflows, leaving Pimco with net outflows of 43 billion euros in the first quarter.Exhibiting masterly understatement, Chief Financial Officer Giulio Terzariol told Bloomberg Television, “March was a tough month.” Retail investors abandoned the market as the novel coronavirus threatened to trash the global economy.Beneath the headline decline in assets under management — Pimco’s worst drop in the five years since the surprise departure of bond maestro Bill Gross, as noted by my Bloomberg News colleagues — the firm’s recovery continues apace. That means Allianz will be dealing from a position of strength if it finally takes the plunge and decides to expand its asset-management business by buying a rival player. In the current beleaguered environment, the one variable that asset managers are able to control is their costs. As Pimco’s overall revenue grew by 18.4% in the year, to more than 1.3 billion euros, the firm was able to shave almost a percentage point from its cost-to-income ratio, extending a trend of parsimony that’s been in place for at least the past five years.Moreover, the margin Pimco is able to charge for managing other people’s money has been remarkably stable, particularly given the fee compression that the rest of the active management industry has endured amid increased competition from low-cost index-tracking products. While its first-quarter margin of 37.3 basis points was down a tad from December, it actually improved from 36.1 basis points in the year-earlier period.A year ago, Pimco’s parent toyed with the idea of buying DWS Group GmbH, when Deutsche Bank AG was mulling offloading its remaining 80% stake in the fund manager as part of its ultimately doomed attempt to merge with Commerzbank AG.In the end, neither transaction happened. But Allianz has given notice that it intends to be part of any industry consolidation. At some point, the German insurer might want to bolster its fund-management defenses against the rise of the index trackers by buying a specialist in passive strategies. With a market share of more than a quarter of Europe’s exchange-traded products, DWS may still prove attractive — if it ever comes up for sale.This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Mark Gilbert is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering asset management. He previously was the London bureau chief for Bloomberg News. He is also the author of "Complicit: How Greed and Collusion Made the Credit Crisis Unstoppable."For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinionSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
German insurer Allianz said on Tuesday that a key measure of capital may fall below the company's target floor level as it faces claims for disruption caused by the coronavirus crisis. Allianz, which earlier reported a nearly 30% slump in first-quarter profit, is one of many European insurers warning about the outlook as clients claim for business interruption and cancelled events, while demand for car and travel insurance has fallen. Its so-called solvency ratio dropped to 190% in the first quarter, down from 212% at the end of last year, and Chief Financial Officer Giulio Terzariol said it may fall below the insurer's 180% limit although this would not be a "big concern".
DGAP-News: Allianz SE / Key word(s): Quarter Results 12.05.2020 / 06:59 The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. \- Internal revenue growth of 3.7 percent in 1Q 2020\- 1Q 2020 operating profit of 2.3 billion euros\- 1Q 2020 net income attributable to shareholders down 28.9 percent to 1.4 billion euros\- Solvency II capitalization ratio of 190 percent\- 2020 operating profit outlook 12 billion euros, plus or minus 500 million euros, has been withdrawn due to COVID-19 uncertaintiesManagement Summary: Resilient performance in adverse conditions The COVID-19 induced turmoil in the financial markets and a slowing economy have clearly aggravated business conditions for the financial services industry. However, Allianz with its well-diversified business portfolio and a robust balance sheet is well prepared to manage the Corona crisis and has achieved good results in the first quarter of 2020.Internal revenue growth, which adjusts for currency and consolidation effects, amounted to 3.7 percent, driven in particular by our Life/Health business segment but also supported by our other business segments. Total revenues increased 5.7 percent to 42.6 (1Q 2019: 40.3) billion euros. Operating profit declined 22.2 percent to 2.3 (3.0) billion euros. Our Asset Management business segment reported a strong increase in operating profit due to a rise in assets under management driven revenues. Our Property-Casualty business segment saw a decrease of the operating profit due to higher claims from natural catastrophes, as well as COVID-19-related losses. Operating profit from our Life/Health business segment also declined mainly driven by the market downturn, which impacted the investment margin and deferred acquisition costs. Net income attributable to shareholders decreased 28.9 percent to 1.4 (2.0) billion euros mostly driven by the lower operating profit. The non-operating result also worsened as realized gains from the sale of Allianz Popular were more than offset by COVID-19-related market impacts. A lower tax rate had a partly offsetting effect.Basic Earnings per Share (EPS) decreased 27.8 percent to 3.36 (4.65) euros. Annualized Return on Equity (RoE) amounted to 9.3 percent (full year 2019: 13.6 percent). The Solvency II capitalization ratio was at 190 percent at the end of the first quarter of 2020, compared to 212 percent at year-end 2019.In light of the uncertainties for the macroeconomic development caused by the current pandemic and the now available updated financial plans of the operating entities of the Group, as already announced in the media release from 30 April 2020, the Board of Management does not assume that Allianz Group can achieve the target range for the operating profit for 2020 in the amount of 12 billion euros, plus or minus 500 million euros. A new profit target for 2020 will be announced by the Board of Management upon completion of the revised planning once the impact of the Corona crisis can be better assessed."The first quarter of 2020 showed the resilience of Allianz in these unprecedented circumstances," said Oliver Bäte, Chief Executive Officer of Allianz SE. "I am very proud of the operational preparedness of Allianz, the dedication of our employees and our IT that ensures the highest service levels for our customers even in this challenging situation. These are very testing times for us all, but I believe that together we will rise to this challenge."Property-Casualty insurance: Combined ratio burdened by COVID-19 and natural catastrophe claims\- Total revenues rose by 4.2 percent to 20.3 (19.5) billion euros in the first quarter of 2020. Adjusted for foreign currency translation and consolidation effects, internal growth totaled 1.8 percent, driven by a positive price effect of 3.3 percent and a negative volume effect of 1.4 percent. AGCS, Allianz Asia Pacific, and Allianz Turkey were the main growth drivers.\- Operating profit decreased strongly by 29.1 percent to 1.0 billion euros in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the year-earlier period. The underwriting result was pressured by an increase in losses from natural catastrophes and COVID-19 impacts. Higher claims were partly offset by a strong improvement of our expense ratio.\- The combined ratio rose 4.1 percentage points to 97.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the year-earlier period."COVID-19 has aggravated operating conditions in our Property-Casualty business segment," said Giulio Terzariol, Chief Financial Officer of Allianz SE. "Our combined ratio adjusted for natural catastrophes and COVID-19 impacts remains at 94 percent as we continue to focus strongly on technical excellence in underwriting and claims management in order to navigate successfully through this crisis jointly with our customers."Life/Health insurance: Resilient results in times of financial market headwinds\- PVNBP, the present value of new business premiums, increased to 18.0 (17.6) billion euros in the first quarter of 2020. This was largely driven by higher sales of unit-linked products in Italy, as well as of capital-efficient products in the German life business. Weakened sales of savings products in France partly offset this development.\- The new business margin (NBM) decreased to 2.7 (3.5) percent due to the impact of lower interest rates in the first quarter of 2020. The value of new business (VNB) dropped to 494 (609) million euros in the first quarter of 2020. The negative effects from the worsening of the interest rate environment were partly offset by increased sales, improved products and the continued shift to preferred lines of business.\- Operating profit decreased to 0.8 (1.1) billion euros in the first quarter of 2020. This was mainly due to a lower investment margin, driven predominantly by higher impairments following the market downturn. Further contributing factors were higher hedge costs and increased deferred acquisition costs (DAC) true-up mainly in the United States. The negative effects were partly compensated by an improved technical margin."New business margin in our Life/Health business segment held up very well during the first quarter of 2020 and sales were concentrated on our preferred lines," said Giulio Terzariol. "On the other hand, our operating result reflects the turbulences in financial markets. We continue to manage actively our product range and asset base to ensure the resilience and value proposition of our Life/Health business segment."Asset Management: Operating profit increased by 19 percent\- Third-party assets under management (AuM) decreased by 129 billion euros to 1,557 billion euros in the first quarter of 2020, compared to the end of 2019. This development was driven by negative market effects of 107.6 billion euros and net outflows of 46.4 billion euros, mostly in March. Positive foreign currency translation effects of 25.0 billion euros could not outweigh the aforementioned negative effects.\- Total assets under management decreased to 2,134 billion euros in the first quarter of 2020.\- The cost-income ratio (CIR) went down by 2.0 percentage points to 61.7 percent in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter of 2019. This was due to higher net fee and commission income, largely driven by higher average AuM, supported by an increase in AuM-driven margins. As a result, operating profit increased by 18.6 percent to 679 (573) million euros in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the year-earlier period."I am pleased with the operating performance of our Asset Management business segment," said Giulio Terzariol. "We observed headwinds from financial markets towards the end of the first quarter of 2020 which might persist in the coming quarters. As the fundamentals of our business are very solid, I am confident about the mid- and long-term value creation of our Asset Management franchise."  PVNBP is shown after non-controlling interests, unless otherwise stated. Allianz Group - key figures 1st quarter 2020 1Q 2020 1Q 2019 Delta Total revenues EUR bn 42.6 40.3 5.7% \- Property-Casualty1 EUR bn 20.3 19.5 4.2% \- Life/Health EUR bn 20.5 19.3 6.5% \- Asset Management EUR bn 1.8 1.6 12.5% \- Corporate and Other EUR bn 0.1 0.1 5.4% \- Consolidation EUR bn -0.1 -0.1 -4.9% Operating profit / loss EUR mn 2,304 2,962 -22.2% \- Property-Casualty EUR mn 1,032 1,455 -29.1% \- Life/Health EUR mn 819 1,096 -25.3% \- Asset Management EUR mn 679 573 18.6% \- Corporate and Other EUR mn -228 -164 38.4% \- Consolidation EUR mn 2 4 -47.9% Net income EUR mn 1,483 2,051 -27.7% \- attributable to non-controlling interests EUR mn 84 82 2.4% \- attributable to shareholders EUR mn 1,400 1,969 -28.9% Basic earnings per share EUR 3.36 4.65 -27.8% Diluted earnings per share EUR 3.21 4.65 -30.9% Additional KPIs \- Group Return on equity2,3 % 9.3% 13.6% -4.3% -p \- Property-Casualty Combined ratio % 97.8% 93.7% 4.1% -p \- Life/Health New business margin % 2.7% 3.5% -0.7% -p \- Life/Health Value of new business EUR mn 494 609 -18.9% \- Asset Management Cost-income ratio % 61.7% 63.7% -2.0% -p 03/31/2020 12/31/2019 Delta Shareholders' equity3 EUR bn 69.4 74.0 -6.2% Solvency II capitalization ratio4 % 190% 212% -23% -p Third-party assets under management EUR bn 1,557 1,686 -7.6% Please note: The figures are presented in millions of Euros, unless otherwise stated. Due to rounding, numbers presented may not add up precisely to the totals provided and percentages may not precisely reflect the absolute figures. 1 Total revenues comprise gross premiums written and fee and commission income. 2 Represents the annualized ratio of net income attributable to shareholders to the average shareholders' equity excluding unrealized gains/losses on bonds, net of shadow accounting, at the beginning and at the end of the period. Annualized figures are not a forecast for full year numbers. For 1Q 2019, the return on equity for the respective full year is shown. 3 Excluding non-controlling interests. 4 Risk capital figures are group diversified at 99.5% confidence level. Munich, May 12, 2020These assessments are, as always, subject to the disclaimer provided below.Cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements This document includes forward-looking statements, such as prospects or expectations, that are based on management's current views and assumptions and subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance figures, or events may differ significantly from those expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements. Deviations may arise due to changes in factors including, but not limited to, the following: (i) the general economic and competitive situation in the Allianz Group's core business and core markets, (ii) the performance of financial markets (in particular market volatility, liquidity, and credit events), (iii) the frequency and severity of insured loss events, including those resulting from natural catastrophes, and the development of loss expenses, (iv) mortality and morbidity levels and trends, (v) persistency levels, (vi) particularly in the banking business, the extent of credit defaults, (vii) interest rate levels, (viii) currency exchange rates, most notably the EUR/USD exchange rate, (ix) changes in laws and regulations, including tax regulations, (x) the impact of acquisitions including and related integration issues and reorganization measures, and (xi) the general competitive conditions that, in each individual case, apply at a local, regional, national, and/or global level. Many of these changes can be exacerbated by terrorist activities.No duty to update The Allianz Group assumes no obligation to update any information or forward-looking statement contained herein, save for any information we are required to disclose by law.Other The figures regarding the net assets, financial position and results of operations have been prepared in conformity with International Financial Reporting Standards. This Quarterly Earnings Release is not an Interim Financial Report within the meaning of International Accounting Standard (IAS) 34.This is a translation of the German Quarterly Earnings Release of the Allianz Group. In case of any divergences, the German original is binding.Privacy Note Allianz SE is committed to protecting your personal data. Find out more in our Privacy Statement. * * *12.05.2020 Dissemination of a Corporate News, transmitted by DGAP - a service of EQS Group AG. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. The DGAP Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. Archive at www.dgap.de * * * Language: English Company: Allianz SE Königinstr. 28 80802 München Germany Phone: +49 (0)89 38 00 - 7555 Fax: +49 (0)89 38 00 - 38 99 E-mail: email@example.com Internet: www.allianz.com ISIN: DE0008404005 WKN: 840400 Indices: DAX-30, EURO STOXX 50 Listed: Regulated Market in Berlin, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt (Prime Standard), Hamburg, Hanover, Munich, Stuttgart; Regulated Unofficial Market in Tradegate Exchange EQS News ID: 1041205 End of News DGAP News Service
National governments must help provide insurance cover for future lockdowns, the industry's European Union regulator said on Monday, as the private sector cannot afford to provide such broad coverage on its own. Countries have introduced lockdowns to fight the coronavirus pandemic, forcing companies to close and furlough staff. Businesses are fighting to get insurers to pay business interruption claims as a deep recession beckons.
Forcing insurers to retroactively cover business disruption losses from the pandemic could ultimately put financial stability at risk, the International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS) said on Thursday. Eight U.S. states have introduced legislation which would require insurers to pay claims, mainly to small businesses, despite exclusions. Where pandemic risks are covered by a policy, insurers should pay out such claims in a prompt and efficient manner, the IAIS said in a statement.
Britain's Financial Conduct Authority is looking to get business interruption insurance policies examined by a court as soon as July, Daniel Duckett, a member of the Hiscox Action Group of policyholders, said on Thursday. The action group, which is seeking to sue Hiscox over allegations that legitimate business interruption claims have been rejected during the coronavirus pandemic, held a discussion with the FCA this week, Duckett said. The FCA said last week it was seeking clarity from the courts about whether some business interruption policies should provide cover as a result of the pandemic, after policyholders complained their claims were denied.
Two law firms said on Tuesday they were gathering companies in Britain for a potential group lawsuit against German insurer Allianz <ALVG.DE> for rejecting business interruption claims during the coronavirus pandemic. Edwin Coe and Harris Balcombe said they wanted to challenge the British subsidiary of Allianz on behalf of businesses, such as restaurants and leisure groups, whose policies had been arranged by brokers JELF and Marsh <MMC.N>.
You can share your thoughts with Thyagaraju Adinarayan (firstname.lastname@example.org), Joice Alves (email@example.com) and Julien Ponthus (firstname.lastname@example.org) in London and Stefano Rebaudo (email@example.com) in Milan. "While the ramp-up of vehicle production in Europe will be gradual, it is credit positive for automakers and an important first step in the sector's eventual recovery," Moody's says. The coronavirus-induced shutdown meant European companies missed to produce about 2.2 million cars, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association.
In this article we will quickly re-cap the broker forecasts for Allianz Se (ETR:ALV). The Allianz Se (ETR:ALV) share price has risen by 7.65% over the past mon8230;
You can share your thoughts with Thyagaraju Adinarayan (firstname.lastname@example.org), Joice Alves (email@example.com) and Julien Ponthus (firstname.lastname@example.org) in London and Stefano Rebaudo (email@example.com) in Milan. European bourses match falls in Asia after a long weekend, as a new U.S.-China spat worries that the economy could come under renewed pressure for possible trade-war hostilities. Sentiment soured again after hoping for a relief due to easing of coronavirus outbreak induced lockdowns.
You can share your thoughts with Thyagaraju Adinarayan (firstname.lastname@example.org), Joice Alves (email@example.com) and Julien Ponthus (firstname.lastname@example.org) in London and Stefano Rebaudo (email@example.com) in Milan. Continental European bourses are set to play catch-up this morning having missed out on Friday's (May Day) sharp declines in UK and US markets. Reuters reported Britain hires Morgan Stanley to advise on aviation rescue plan.
Allianz SE (ETR:ALV) stock is about to trade ex-dividend in 4 days time. Ex-dividend means that investors that...
Allianz SE / Key word(s): Change in Forecast Allianz SE: Allianz withdraws profit target 30-Apr-2020 / 19:31 CET/CEST Disclosure of an inside information acc. to Article 17 MAR of the Regulation (EU) No 596/2014, transmitted by DGAP - a service of EQS Group AG. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. * * * On the basis of the preliminary results for the first quarter 2020 Allianz Group expects an operating profit for Q1 of EUR 2.3 bn (Q1 2019: 3.0 bn) and a shareholder's net income for Q1 of EUR 1.4 bn (Q1 2019: 2.0 bn). In light of the uncertainties for the macroeconomic development caused by the current pandemic and the now available updated financial plans of the operating entities of the Group, from today's perspective the Board of Management does not assume that Allianz Group can achieve the target range for the operating profit for 2020 in the amount of EUR 12 bn +/- EUR 500 mio. A new profit target for 2020 will be announced by the Board of Management upon completion of the revised planning." Explanations of the alternative financial ratios used (Alternative Performance Measures (APM)) can be found on the website of Allianz SE (available at https://www.allianz.com/content/dam/onemarketing/azcom/Allianz_com/investor-relations/en/results-reports/annual-report/ar-2019/en-alternative-performance-measures-2019.pdf) Person making the notification: Michael Sieburg, Compliance Officer, Allianz SE These assessments are, as always, subject to the disclaimer provided below. * * *Information and Explanation of the Issuer to this News: Cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements This document includes forward-looking statements, such as prospects or expectations, that are based on management's current views and assumptions and subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance figures, or events may differ significantly from those expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements. Deviations may arise due to changes in factors including, but not limited to, the following: (i) the general economic and competitive situation in the Allianz Group's core business and core markets, (ii) the performance of financial markets (in particular market volatility, liquidity, and credit events), (iii) the frequency and severity of insured loss events, including those resulting from natural catastrophes, and the development of loss expenses, (iv) mortality and morbidity levels and trends, (v) persistency levels, (vi) particularly in the banking business, the extent of credit defaults, (vii) interest rate levels, (viii) currency exchange rates, most notably the EUR/USD exchange rate, (ix) changes in laws and regulations, including tax regulations, (x) the impact of acquisitions including and related integration issues and reorganization measures, and (xi) the general competitive conditions that, in each individual case, apply at a local, regional, national, and/or global level. Many of these changes can be exacerbated by terrorist activities. No duty to update The Allianz Group assumes no obligation to update any information or forward-looking statement contained herein, save for any information we are required to disclose by law. * * *30-Apr-2020 CET/CEST The DGAP Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. Archive at www.dgap.de * * * Language: English Company: Allianz SE Königinstr. 28 80802 München Germany Phone: +49 (0)89 38 00 - 7555 Fax: +49 (0)89 38 00 - 38 99 E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org Internet: www.allianz.com ISIN: DE0008404005 WKN: 840400 Indices: DAX-30, EURO STOXX 50 Listed: Regulated Market in Berlin, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt (Prime Standard), Hamburg, Hanover, Munich, Stuttgart; Regulated Unofficial Market in Tradegate Exchange EQS News ID: 1034645 End of Announcement DGAP News Service
* HSBC, UBS, Santander: mixed Q1 results Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters. You can share your thoughts with Thyagaraju Adinarayan (email@example.com), Joice Alves (firstname.lastname@example.org) and Julien Ponthus (email@example.com) in London and Stefano Rebaudo (firstname.lastname@example.org) in Milan. The pandemic seems to affect only slightly their underwriting results, while it has positive consequences for the frequency of the motor claims.
German insurer Allianz <ALVG.DE> has struck a deal to invest in the bancassurance business of Spanish lender BBVA <BBVA.MC>, the companies said on Monday, confirming an earlier report by Reuters. The venture will give Allianz a platform to revive its Spanish distribution network for its property-casualty insurance products after a previous agreement with Banco Popular came to an end following Popular's sale to Santander in 2017. Allianz will acquire 50% plus one share of the joint venture for an initial 277 million euros ($299.94 million).
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday issued a stunning global economic forecast after most of the world's biggest nations shut down almost all nonessential businesses amid the coronavirus pandemic: The unfolding recession will be much worse than the 2008-09 financial crisis and may be surpassed only by the Great Depression.What the IMF refers to as the "Great Lockdown" recession will cause global growth to decline by 3% this year, a sharp reversal from the 3.3% expansion it predicted in January before the disease spread to the world's industrialized nations and many emerging markets. By comparison, world growth fell just 0.1% in 2009 during the financial crisis. We asked Bloomberg Opinion columnists and contributors who write about the economy to share their thoughts:Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, the parent company of Pimco:The IMF provides one of the most comprehensive and insightful analyses of the sudden economic stop triggered by the coronavirus. It places the right emphasis on how the world has dramatically changed in just a few months, the extreme uncertainties still ahead, the growing dispersion in countries’ abilities to respond effectively, the danger of adverse multiple equilibria and the severe risks of a worse outcome.Needless to say, the ability to translate all this into precise economic forecasts is challenging, something that the IMF acknowledges itself by stressing the “extreme uncertainty around the forecasts.” Yet it is the forecast that will attract the most attention, and for understandable reasons: Forecasts are easier to broadcast in summary form.Having said that, the specific projections still look too optimistic; and I say this notwithstanding the enormous uncertainty that still surrounds the duration of this new recession, how it will be lifted and what’s on the other side. The optimism isn't limited to a few countries. It starts with the U.S. and Europe, and extends to many other nations, both advanced and developing. As such, a negative 3% global growth in 2020 may be the sunny scenario. We should hope for it, but plan for more contingencies, especially when it comes to the vulnerable developing economies where the risk of massive human tragedy is already too high.Bill Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York from 2009 to 2018:In my view, it is a reasonable forecast. But it should be taken with a grain of salt given the considerable uncertainty that surrounds the outlook in a vast array of dimensions. A non-exhaustive list includes: the effectiveness and sustainability of social distancing; the course of the coronavirus and the impact this has on behavior (willingness to fly, take cruises, go to restaurants); the timeline for when a vaccine will become broadly available; and the impact on government, household and business balance sheets and how that affects future saving and spending decisions. There is considerable uncertainty about each dimension and all these aspects will interact in complex ways that we cannot fully anticipate.Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from 2009 to 2015:The IMF's new growth outlook for 2020 is a dire one, and includes an overall fall in output in the U.S. of almost 6%. The baseline outlook for 2021 is much brighter, but it is predicated on the assumption that "the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020." The alternative scenario, in which Covid-19 and associated stringent public-health interventions persist into 2021, unfortunately seems highly likely to me. Fortunately, countries such as the U.S. and Germany are able to borrow at extraordinarily low interest rates. They should be prepared to make full use of that fiscal capacity to support the global economy during the deepening slowdown, whatever its duration, and to provide much-needed vigor to the recovery that follows.John Authers, senior editor for markets:A 3% contraction in the global economy this year would be very, very bad. The one number needed for context is 0.1%. That was the fall in global gross domestic product during the Great Recession year of 2009. We all know that the worst downturn in generations will be due to the greatest voluntary halt in economic activity in history. But it’s also important to note at least one factor that we were worried about even before Covid-19. China’s Energizer Bunny growth has kept the entire global economy ticking along for three decades and alone almost stopped growth from going negative in 2009. Its growth is no longer so reliable, and the IMF’s pessimism owes a lot to the way China is trying to handle its economic transition.Beyond that, as Bloomberg noted in impressive detail last year, economic predictions are difficult. The IMF does still matter. As an organization it is arguably better positioned than any other to produce forecasts like this. We should attempt to navigate the world ahead of us with some kind of a road map, and this is the best it can manage. But the IMF does have a tendency to underestimate growth, and with impressive honesty it admitted back in 2014 that its forecasts are no more or less accurate than those of private-sector competitors. So we can still hope that it has underestimated growth this time.Tim Duy, professor of economics at the University of Oregon:The IMF is correct in that this will likely be the steepest contraction in a century. Acknowledge, though, that we are also witnessing support in the U.S. that is impressive in both its size and speed as policy makers rush to put a floor under the economy. The Federal Reserve has taken a whatever-it-takes approach to shoring up financial markets and preventing a credit collapse, while Congress has enhanced unemployment insurance to provide generous benefits to a wider range of workers. It also has funded forgivable loans to small- and medium-sized companies to encourage them to keep employees on payrolls.To be sure, not everyone will be caught in the safety net and the money is moving out the door slower than we would like. Still, the substantial amount of support for the economy should limit the downside. The bottom will be deep relative to where we began, but not nearly as deep as it would be absent the policy support. Eventually, the economy will restart, and while it may be many months until we have a widely distributed vaccine or other therapeutic cure, we are moving toward that objective. During that transition, businesses and individuals will have to learn how to live with the virus. Continued policy support will be essential to fostering gains even as we confront a new normal for the economy.Conor Sen, portfolio manager of New River Investments:Although economic output and employment may drop by the most since the Great Depression, the early policy response from the Fed and Congress provide hope that it need not feel historically painful for Americans. The Fed has rolled out emergency lending and liquidity programs with record speed, doing what they can to stabilize the financial system and credit markets.As for workers, we may see a historic gap between the income received by Americans and the number of them who are employed. If 20 million Americans are thrown out of work by the crisis, but the vast majority are receiving $900 weekly in unemployment benefits thanks to legislation passed by Congress, most of them will still be able to pay their bills. It may be temporary, but American workers have a safety net like they've never had before.The economic shocks resulting from the coronavirus may be the only option if we're going to prevent millions of deaths. But if we get the policy response right, and so far we've been moving in the right direction, then we might have record unemployment for a while but also defeat the virus while ensuring that people get paid even if they're out of work. That should be our objective, and if we achieve that goal, it would be an outcome to celebrate.Noah Smith, former professor of economics at Stony Brook University:The IMF is absolutely right that the initial shock of the coronavirus is likely to be worse than the recession that followed the financial crisis of 2008. But it overestimates the speed of the recovery, for at least three reasons.First, there's the global nature of the crisis. The Great Recession was a U.S.-centric downturn that later became a Europe-centric downturn. The coronavirus pandemic is hitting every major country in the world at more or less the same time. Every advanced economy is in some form of lockdown and every emerging market economy is being hit by capital outflows, collapsing commodity prices and the threat of the pandemic. This means that even when some countries start to recover, they will be slowed by the many others that aren't.Second, the coronavirus depression will lead to enduring policy changes that will further disrupt the world's economic system. A rise in financial nationalism and an attempt to bring important supply chains within national borders will partially reverse globalization; both business models and asset markets will take years to readjust.Third, Donald Trump's administration has shown itself to be rudderless and ineffectual during the crisis, suggesting that the U.S. executive policy response will remain weak and haphazard throughout 2020. Better policy may or may not arrive in 2021, but by then crucial time will have been lost.This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.James Greiff is an editor for Bloomberg Opinion. He was Wall Street news team leader at Bloomberg News and senior editor for Bloomberg Markets magazine. He previously reported on banking for the St. Petersburg Times and the Charlotte Observer.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinionSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
German insurer Allianz <ALVG.DE> on Thursday welcomed plans by China to open its insurance market to foreigners and underscored its desire to expand there. China plans to make it easier for foreign life insurers to make controlling acquisitions and large equity investments in domestic peers, Reuters reported earlier on Thursday, citing five people with knowledge of the matter. In an emailed statement to Reuters, Solmaz Altin, regional chief of Asia Pacific and chief executive officer of Allianz China, welcomed "further liberalization of the Chinese insurance market."