|Bid||27.00 x 0|
|Ask||26.21 x 0|
|Day's range||26.08 - 26.21|
|52-week range||22.98 - 30.35|
|Beta (3Y monthly)||1.18|
|PE ratio (TTM)||12.57|
|Earnings date||1 Nov 2019|
|Forward dividend & yield||1.60 (6.06%)|
|1y target est||28.83|
(Bloomberg) -- Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world embroiled in trade wars. Sign up here. New Zealand’s central bank is poised to cut interest rates to a fresh record low and may hint it’s not done yet as the economy cools and global peers ease policy.The Reserve Bank will lower the official cash rate by a quarter point to 1.25% on Wednesday, according to 18 of 21 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Many expect another reduction before the end of the year.“We see another cut in November to 1%, and there could well be further cuts beyond that,” said Nick Tuffley, chief economist at ASB Bank in Auckland. “The economy should be growing faster than it is. There’s a risk that it continues to undershoot its potential and instead of more inflation pressure you get less.”Weak business and consumer confidence are weighing on hiring and spending, damping growth and keeping inflation below the midpoint of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band. The bank is also under pressure to keep step with a global shift toward lower borrowing costs so that the New Zealand dollar doesn’t strengthen, which could hurt exports and reduce imported inflation.The RBNZ will publish its decision at 2 p.m. in Wellington on Wednesday along with fresh forecasts for growth, inflation and the OCR. Governor Adrian Orr will hold a press conference an hour later.Markets are certain the central bank will deliver a cut tomorrow and have almost fully priced in another move in November, swaps data show.The RBNZ, which is mandated to deliver both price stability and maximum sustainable employment, cut rates in May, getting a head-start on peers such as the Australian and U.S. central banks, which have since followed suit. Although it held rates steady in June, it said then that “a lower OCR may be needed over time to continue to meet our objectives.”ANZ Bank New Zealand economists this morning predicted the RBNZ will lower the cash rate three more times this year, taking it to 0.75% in November. They cited an escalation in the U.S.-China trade war after China allowed its currency to depreciate.The domestic outlook has also softened. While inflation accelerated to 1.7% in the second quarter, economists expect it to weaken again. The economy’s annual growth rate has fallen to 2.5%, the slowest in more than five years, and a further deterioration is expected.An RBNZ report today showed inflation expectations dropped to 1.86% -- below the bank’s 2% goal for the first time since early 2017.Bucking the trend, labor market data also released today were unexpectedly strong. The jobless rate dropped to 3.9% in the second quarter, an 11-year low, and wages surged after the government increased minimum pay rates.Unconventional Policy“The sharp fall in the unemployment rate is unlikely to prevent the RBNZ from cutting rates tomorrow given the volatility in labor market data,” said Ben Udy, an economist at Capital Economics in Singapore, who expects the bank to cut again in November. “Given the weakness in business surveys, alongside the recent declines in the logging prices and a higher minimum wage, we think the unemployment rate will rise over the rest of 2019.”As the cash rate falls further into uncharted territory, reducing the RBNZ’s ability to counter an unexpected shock, there is increased discussion about what non-standard measures it might turn to, such as bond purchases or negative rates. The bank said last month that it’s taking another look at its unconventional policy strategy, though this was “at a very early stage.”“It’s re-doing its homework on that front and it’s very timely that it does, because we do risk heading into territory where the OCR starts to lose its traction,” said Tuffley. “If the global economy deteriorates markedly and puts more pressure on us, you may well find the Reserve Bank needs to look at other measures to get some stimulus.”(Updates with inflation expectations in 10th paragraph)\--With assistance from Tomoko Sato.To contact the reporter on this story: Matthew Brockett in Wellington at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Matthew Brockett at email@example.com, Chris Bourke, Tracy WithersFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- Gold fell for a second day, while sustaining its hold above $1,400 an ounce, after the Federal Reserve signaled it probably won’t embark on a lengthy easing cycle following the first U.S. rate cut since the financial crisis.On Wednesday, the bank pared the target range for the benchmark rate by a quarter point, a move that was widely expected. Still, markets were whipsawed on remarks from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who struggled to define the path ahead. Two Fed rate-setters dissented.“The Fed poured cold water on the market and we are seeing a reversal in most asset classes, gold included,” said Howie Lee, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “Overall, it appears that the Fed is not entirely sure of its future policies in the near-term,” he said, adding: “An unclear Fed means confused markets, and I expect volatility to be high in the near term.”Gold is facing a setback after rallying in recent months to a six-year high as central banks globally signaled that looser monetary policy is needed to boost growth. Powell said the quarter-point reduction amounted to a “mid-term policy adjustment,” fueling speculation the central bank is not necessarily at the start of an easing cycle, but he also said the Fed hasn’t ruled out further cuts. A gauge of the dollar rose to the highest in two months.“Gold had become somewhat overbought in the short term and was due a correction,” said Mark O’Byrne, research director at GoldCore, adding that he sees gold falling as low as $1,350. Still, “given the uncertain political and economic backdrop and growing demand globally, we expect this selloff to be short and relatively shallow.”The implied rate on January fed funds futures, an indication of where the market sees the central bank’s key rate at year-end, rose to 1.77%, from 1.72% before the Fed decision. That’s less than the Fed’s decision Wednesday to lower the target range for the benchmark rate to 2%-2.25%.Data from the 1980s to date show that once the market prices in lower borrowing costs within 30 days of a Fed decision, “the market has its way more often than not — suggesting that gold could still remain supported,” TD analysts including Bart Melek said in a note to clients Thursday.Gold futures for December delivery declined 1.3% to $1,419.70 an ounce at 10:16 a.m. on the Comex in New York. In July, the precious metal hit $1,454.40, the highest intraday since May 2013. Silver futures dropped 2% to $16.075 an ounce, while platinum and palladium also fell.While the initial gold market reaction may be to sell off early this month, the outcome is “largely neutral” for the precious metal at current levels, Citigroup Inc. said in a note. The bank maintained its third-quarter average price forecast of $1,425 and its zero-to-three month point-price target of $1,450.Investors will now seek further clarity from the Fed, as they weigh fresh government data showing U.S. manufacturing activity deteriorated in July to an almost three-year low alongside rising jobless claims.\--With assistance from Justina Vasquez.To contact the reporters on this story: Ranjeetha Pakiam in Singapore at firstname.lastname@example.org;Rupert Rowling in London at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Phoebe Sedgman at firstname.lastname@example.org, Steven Frank, Luzi Ann JavierFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
The AUD/USD is trading higher after the consumer inflation report because traders are reducing the chances of a rate cut in August. However, the RBA is still likely to cut rates again in October after it receives more information on the labor market, growth and the initial impact of both the government’s tax refunds and the June/July rate cuts.
(Bloomberg) -- Australia’s dollar took a beating last week and worse may be to come in the form of quarterly inflation data due Wednesday.The currency slid about 1.5% over the five days through Friday as influential Westpac Banking Corp. economist Bill Evans brought forward his forecast for the next interest-rate cut to October, and Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said he was ready to ease again to revive economic growth.The one-two punch put an end to a one-month rally in the Aussie and ensured the currency remained in a long-term downtrend, capped by its 200-day moving average. Slow stochastics, an indicator of momentum, suggests more weakness lies ahead at least in the short term.Leveraged funds are among those betting on further losses. They held a net short position of 16,868 contracts for the week ended July 16, close to the most bearish this year, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.Overnight interest-rate swaps are pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut in October, up from 40% odds at the start of last week. That would be the third reduction this year following moves in June and July that have pushed down the benchmark to a record-low 1%.The next leg down in the Aussie may be triggered by Wednesday’s inflation data. Economists predict the trimmed mean reading will fall to 1.5% for the second quarter, which would be the lowest since December 2016. The gauge has remained stubbornly below the central bank’s 2%-to-3% target range for more than three years.Speaking on Thursday, Lowe flagged the importance of keeping borrowing costs low until inflation recovers. “On current projections, it will be some time before inflation is comfortably back within the target range,” he said at a speech in SydneyA further batch of disappointing inflation data may see investors boost pricing on another rate cut even further, and bring a smile to the face of Aussie bears.Below are key Asian economic data and events due this week:Monday, July 29: Japan retail salesTuesday, July 30: Australia building approvals, New Zealand building permits, BOJ policy decision and outlook report, Japan industrial production and jobless rate, South Korea manufacturing and non-manufacturing business surveysWednesday, July 31: Australia 2Q CPI, New Zealand ANZ business confidence, Japan consumer confidence and construction orders, South Korea industrial production, China manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Thailand trade balance and BoP current account balanceThursday, Aug. 1: Japan Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI, BOJ’s Amamiya speaks, South Korea CPI, trade balance and manufacturing PMI, China Caixin manufacturing PMI, Indonesia CPI, Thailand CPI and business sentiment indexFriday, Aug. 2: Australia retail sales, 2Q retail sales ex-inflation and PPI, New Zealand ANZ consumer confidence, BOJ minutes to June meeting, Malaysia trade balance\--With assistance from Stephen Spratt.To contact the reporter on this story: David Finnerty in Singapore at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Tan Hwee Ann at firstname.lastname@example.org, Nicholas ReynoldsFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Shayne Elliott became the CEO of Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ASX:ANZ) in 2016. This analysis aims...
Oil prices were little changed on Friday and were on track for a second straight week of gains, ahead of talks over the trade dispute between the U.S. and Chinese presidents this weekend and on production cuts from OPEC on Monday. Brent August crude futures were up 19 cents at $66.74 a barrel by 1:50 p.m. ET (1750 GMT), ahead of expiry.
Oil prices fell on Friday but posted their second straight week of gains ahead of trade talks between the U.S. and Chinese presidents this weekend, and on widely expected production cuts from OPEC on Monday. The most active September Brent crude futures fell 93 cents to settle at $64.74 a barrel. Brent August crude futures settled unchanged at $66.55 a barrel.
Investing.com - Asian markets were mixed in morning trade on Monday as Hong Kong stocks traded in the green after another mass protest over the weekend that forced an apology from the city’s chief executive.
Today we'll take a closer look at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ASX:ANZ) from a dividend investor's...
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Want to participate in a research study? Help shape the future of investing tools and earn a $60 gift card! If you want to know who really controls Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ASX:ANZ), then you'll have to look a...
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ASX:ANZ) is a large-cap stock operating in the financial services sector with a market cap of AU$78b. As major financial institutions return toRead More...
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd said it would make 16 changes to its business, including dropping default charges on drought-hit farmers, in response to the recommendations ...
After a year of bruising interrogation, Australia's oligopoly banking system has emerged from a government-appointed inquiry with reputations tarnished and some top executives removed - but also an unexpected opportunity to rebuild. Proposed reforms to the mortgage broking industry revealed on Monday will potentially put billions of dollars of broker-originated loans in play in the banks' most important profit-generating sector. Australia's "Big Four" banks - Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank and Westpac Banking Corp - now have the opportunity to battle for the money projected to leak from the mortgage broking sector and capture extra margins by cutting out an intermediary.
Australian bank shares surged the most in a decade on Tuesday after a long-awaited report on finance-sector misconduct recommended dozens of rule changes but spared the "Big Four" lenders any serious threat to their market dominance. In a report released by the government on Monday, the retired judge who led a public inquiry into financial-sector misconduct last year, referred 24 cases to regulators for possible prosecution. "It is possible that the banks may face criminal proceedings but we do not believe that any of the 76 recommendations by themselves will have a material financial impact," UBS analysts said in a research note.
Oil prices fell on Monday after disappointing U.S. factory data sparked fresh concerns about a slowdown in the global economy, but losses were limited as OPEC-led supply cuts and U.S. sanctions against Venezuela pointed to tighter supply. Brent crude futures dropped 24 cents, or 0.38 percent, to settle at $62.51 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 70 cents, or 1.27 percent, to settle at $54.56 a barrel.
A special government-appointed inquiry excoriated Australia's financial sector for misconduct on Monday, referring two dozen cases to regulators for possible legal action but leaving the structure of the country's powerful banks in place. Regulators will be subjected to a new oversight body and the financial industry's pay will be overhauled to remove conflicts of interest, according to the recommendations of the so-called Royal Commission. The recommendations come after the public inquiry heard 11 months of shocking revelations of the financial industry's wrongdoing, including that fees were charged to the accounts of dead people and that cash bribes were paid over the counter to win mortgage business, wiping A$60 billion from the country's top finance stocks.