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Axos Financial, Inc. (AX)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed price. Currency in USD
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34.80-2.05 (-5.56%)
At close: 04:00PM EDT
36.49 +1.69 (+4.86%)
After hours: 05:07PM EDT

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  • o
    optional
    Zach's thinks AX is likely to have an earnings beat this quarter.
    Unfortunately that is just is just a computer robot and pretty clueless about the details of any business.

    But Zach's is a useless service. If AX is going to have an earning miss (they haven't missed for 3-4 years), it is probably going to be this quarter.
    INBK just missed. AX just settled legal nonsense from the 2015 short attack employee plant (where the judge disallowed any testimony about the short attack and a rogue employee's direct and obvious participation in that attack.) And they probably will have to write off something like 1-5 million for it (or maybe insured? I don't know). Doesn't look like they will appeal it. They wasted too much money on exposing the short manipulators already.

    Overall AX are going to do great during the upcoming recession. The low cost deposits are about to shine.
    All the off-balance sheet holding are going to allow rapid growth out of the recession. I would have liked a one penny beat to the 2022 final year number (bank end of year comes out Aug 4) so the year earning were a nice round value of $4.00 (just like I predicted they would be last summer). But it will be close enough.
  • o
    optional
    Ford Equity Research published their report on AX on Dec 6th.
    They don't make price predictions. But they do use a discounted cashflow model to estimate fair value.
    Their estimate of AX fair value is now $59.15. Up from around $40 a year ago.

    Net interest margin of 4.1% is slightly better than other banks at 3.5%
    Return on assets of 1.5% is better than average for banks of 1.3%
    Return on equity (what we own) is is 15.3% vs 9.9% for bank average.
  • o
    optional
    Ford Equity Research upped its recommendation from hold (3) to strong buy (1) on Sept 6th.
    Its previous assessment on Aug 30th is identical in every way that I can tell - except the conclusion.
    A look at the 1-month chart shows this strong run upwards starting exactly on the 6th.
    So I am intrigued. And will pay slightly more attention to Ford in the future.
    All the banks have been running. So I suspect what changed was something bigger picture.
    As I said - the company assessment is identical between the 30th and the 6th, so Ford is including more than they say.
    And they got this run correctly.

    Just a side note. Ford has a fair value of $59.80 for AX right now (and also had that on the 30th).
    I don't think that is a price target. But it is an interesting financial assessment.
  • A
    Alex
    up to 100 million in repurchases announced. Board/management believes fair value is higher.
  • o
    optional
    175 million loan at less than 5%. Means roughly 10x in new assets (1.75 billion).
    Which takes us to 15 billion assets soon.
    And it seems like just yesterday we were sneaking about under 10 billion.
    With RoE of 18% (or lowball it to 15% is you want to be a pessimist) that is 10-13% net money to shareholders soon.
    Return on assets is about 1.5% I think. So that is an extra 26 million a year in profit for us (per year, at the low 10% net) which is about $0.44 per share per year.
    It seems increasingly likely we earn more than $3 per year soon.
    Get in before the estimates go up.
  • L
    LongDistance
    I didn't think the GOP could do anything. So a wasn't factoring in tax reform at all to my fair value.
    But ...

    Under Yahoo Financials: BOFI income before taxes in 2017 was 232 M and total income tax was 98M (or 42.24 %).
    That is 10.8% CA Bank income tax plus the 35% top Federal tax rate (on income over 18M) minus whatever breaks they get.
    The corporate rate is now more likely than not to go from 35% to 20%. And a 15% reduction from the $232 M is $35 M tax savings (or a new 27.24% tax rate). Which is about $0.55 per share more income for 2017 (if the reduction had been in place).
    So for for 2017, theoretically the new tax rate would have increased earnings by 26.5% to $2.62. Scaling current analysts estimates similarly would give:
    June 2018 yearly earnings estimate becomes $3.01
    and June 2019 estimate is $3.45.

    At a PE=15 which is conservative. It is less than the bank average of 18. And equal to the current income growth rate of 15% (for a PEG = 1). And that growth rate is currently depressed due to capital investment. That would put
    BOFI's Jun 2017 fair value at about $39.3
    BOFI's Jun 2018 fair value at about $45.1
    BOFI's June 2019 fair value at about $51.7

    And none of that factors in the years of short buying pressure (there won't be a classic rapid squeeze).
    You boys are about to double your money ...
    That means you too Healthy - hang in there.
  • T
    TB 12
    My cost average is 26. This is a 10 hold for me. Best online bank in US.
  • o
    optional
    BAC (which I also own) is a good comparison stock for AX.
    AX is making 10% more per share, and selling for 10% less than BAC.
    AX has higher ROE, high growth, and lower loan loss ratios than BAC.
    Both are doing substantial stock buybacks.
    BAC has a dividend of about 2%.
    AX has the more innovative business model, and has far more market-share space to grow into.
  • W
    Wiredre2000
    Name change for the Bank:

    We launched our bank eighteen years ago on our great nation’s Independence Day to symbolize our commitment to liberat
    customers and businesses from high-fee, high-cost banking.

    I believe we have lived up to that commitment. We have provided better value products to our clients and have grown dramatically, with millions of customers and businesses now using our various banking services. We are humbled and grateful that you shared our journey as a digital banking pioneer and that you continue to trust us to provide you banking services in a unique and innovative way.

    When we launched our bank, Google was only two years old and the iPhone wouldn’t be released for seven years. Delivering banking services on the “internet” was unique. In the nearly two decades since our founding, waves of digitally-driven changes have dramatically reshaped customer expectations in most industries. We acknowledge these high expectations created by the world’s greatest digital companies—and we are evolving to rise to the challenge.

    As one component of a comprehensive, multiyear program to better serve the needs of our partners and their clients, we are changing the name of our bank from BofI Federal Bank to Axos Bank™ on October 1, 2018. Brands are meaningful only with respect to the promises they make to their customers. The promise we make to you is that we will listen and strive to deliver an evolved banking experience that meets the high expectations of you and your clients.

    We will make every effort to be a better kind of bank by giving you and your clients the tools, the information, and the power to make smarter choices. We believe you deserve a different kind of bank—a better kind of bank. That’s what you and your clients can expect from us.

    As we become Axos Bank, what will change for you? Very little. Any partnership agreements that are in place will remain in effect throughout the term of the agreement. Your clients' account number(s) and our routing number will not change and their FDIC insurance will remain in place. Our existing websites and email addresses will be redirected to axosbank.com.

    Click here for additional details about our new brand and a brief list of questions and answers you may have about our name change.

    To learn more about our rebrand, I invite you to visit axosbank.com. Should you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact your relationship manager or call our customer service 24/7, at 833-411-AXOS (2967).

    Welcome to Axos Bank – Banking Evolved.

    Sincerely,


    Gregory Garrabrants
    President and Chief Executive Officer
    BofI Federal Bank – Axos Bank on October 1
  • a
    asdf
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-24/kushners-needing-funds-for-n-j-project-got-web-lender-loan

    Link to the article. The linked "short case for BOFI" cited in the article is from April 2015. Says all you need to know about how well researched the article is regarding BOFI and their business.
    The company owned by the family of presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner says Jersey City, New Jersey, a Democratic stronghold, is blocking its plan to build two towers because of politics and hinted a lawsuit is possible. Behind the fight there’s an
    The company owned by the family of presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner says Jersey City, New Jersey, a Democratic stronghold, is blocking its plan to build two towers because of politics and hinted a lawsuit is possible. Behind the fight there’s an
    www.bloomberg.com
  • R
    Riley
    Two analysts have revised their earnings estimates so far. Will likely be a flurry of activity next week and the one after. Current FY2018 and FY2019 consensus estimates are $2.43 and $2.87, up from $2.38 and $2.73 a week ago, respectively.
  • R
    Riley
    BOFI filed a mixed shelf registration statement authorizing them to sell up to $300m in stock to the investing public with an additional $50m available to be sold by select shareholders.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1299709/000129970918000024/s-3asr20180226.htm
    Document
    www.sec.gov
  • L
    LongDistance
    The short sellers lost in court so am back. I bought more at below 25 today.
    PE = 8 is fine with me. Even if running into a recession.
    Next recession won't be bank related.
    And during the last recession (which was bank related) they cleaned up during it.
  • E
    Eric
    And somewhere Long Distance is enjoying a VERY expensive drink. Thanks for your guidance.
  • R
    Roni
    earnings attributable to common stockholders excluding the deferred tax revaluation were $39.7 million and $39.6 million, respectively, or $0.61 per diluted share for the second quarter of fiscal 2018, an increase of 22.9% from the second quarter ended December 31, 2016.
  • R
    Riley
    $3 billion in deposits from Nationwide was their M&A transaction that delayed the call. That’s a lot of lower-cost (than CDs) deposits to turn into profitable loans.
  • o
    optional
    In fiscal year 2014 (ending June 2014) AX (then BOFI) made 0.96 cents per diluted share (for that year).
    The stock sold for roughly $19 per share then.
    We are about to make that much profit in just the currently operating quarter today.
    And the price is only $31 per share.

    In the past 5 years the company has tripled its earnings per share. 300%. That is a 25% CAGR in earning.
    The stock price is up only 63%. That is 10% CAGR in price. Which is fine - but not comparable.
    All else being equal, when the last 8 M shares are gone, the price would equivalently be $57 per share today
    if it followed the earnings.

    At some point, reversion will happen. Either the earnings will drop to half of the current earnings.
    Or the share price will double.
  • J
    James
    Tax Reform Passed! Toothy are you sure you still want to hang around Shortville? Might be wise to get out now before the analysts start adjusting their EPS forecast :D
  • R
    Roni
    5 Reasons to be optimistic:
    1. Higher 10Y this quarter means less mortgage prepayments, thus higher net loan growth
    2. Tax relief impact - 22% upside to 2019 results
    3. business initiatives that will start materialise in 2018. efficiancy ratio will start improving in late 2018, and profits will start growing faster
    4. low valuation relative to peers and to the history of BOFI itself
    5. Short sellers are covering in an accelareting pace. This creats trading momentum. In the last two weeks of december they were responsible for nearly 25% of the volume, buying stocks and supporting the stock price. They have a very long way to go to eliminate their short position

    good luck longs !