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Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABAF)
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Logan Kane has the same opinion as me. The panic in Baba shares sets up an opportunity like tech stocks in 2003, bank stocks in 2009, and oil stocks in 2020. The risks of nationalization, delisting and governance are overblown for Alibaba, which trades for 11.5x next year's earnings with strong long-run growth potential.
As long as there are no future news of delisting. I'm holding to $BABA
Alibaba has recently established a wholly-owned subsidiary called "Yuanjing Shengsheng" (元境生生), the business of which will be associated with metaverse. The Alibaba Cloud Game Division unveiled the new "Yuanjing" (元境) sub-brand in September to provide cloud games with platform as a service (PaaS) ability and a developer platform. The new entity may signify Alibaba's further layout in the metaverse gaming field.
BABA-SW (09988.HK) has recently established a wholly-owned subsidiary called "Yuanjing Sh...
BABA-SW (09988.HK) has recently established a wholly-owned subsidiary called "Yuanjing Sh...
Bought some more baba , at this price it's a garbain on the street , this is the best buy and undervalued, act fast before too late , 3x in 2 years easy , tencent and baba best of the best from China
Is it correct that Ali BABA has $276B in cash after subtracting debt. If this is true BABA,s market can after subtracting cas is $76B. This is way too cheap if these numbers are correct.
When a Barron's article comes out with a headline declaring that the 2 day rally was just a headfake and the stock is falling from here, it's a confirmation that there is an agenda to bring the stock price down.
We are currently at the turning point when institutional investors start to buy. It won’t be until we hit $200-300 before retail investors start to purchase, at which point we can peel off and take profits, holding until $400 when the stock reaches its true price and we can reap our rewards.
Jimmy Da Saint
I swear, the editor of seeking alpha has to be bipolar. I’ve never seen a publication post such a diverse variance of news pieces regarding a company.
Why Alibaba Won't Be Delisted
Dec. 07, 2021 6:44 PMAlibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)
China's aging population points to current account deficits ahead and therefore the need for foreign capital inflows. Large-scale delistings and the related fallout would be against China's best interests.
Large and strategic Russian ADR companies have granted the PCAOB access without any national security problems. We could be overthinking the China vs. US agenda.
DiDi's delisting is likely to be an isolated case and a result of weak network security.
Both the Chinese and US sides have communicated a willingness to cooperate and reach a middle ground before the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act starts to delist Chinese ADRs.
Alibaba's cybersecurity capabilities are top in class, which may keep it out of regulators' crosshairs. Rock-bottom valuations make the stock too cheap to ignore. BUY on the dip caused by delisting fears.
Never forgetti, alibaba will buy own shari (15b$) starting within a month or so
Audi has formed tie-ups with Alibaba Group Holding, Baidu and Tencent Holdings to collaborate in the fields of big data, Internet of Things and urban mobility. The German carmaker plans to to assemble five battery-powered EV models at its mainland-based plants in 2025.
“We want to ensure that Audi is at the forefront of the technical development with the [Chinese] partnerships,” Delucchi said in an exclusive interview with the Post. He added that autonomous driving, digital connectivity and sophisticated in-car entertainment are the key areas that Audi would explore, as the firm aimed to stay ahead of the competition in China.
Source: South China Morning Post
I am going to walk you through why you are getting the core business of BABA at 6.1x EBITDA, even after the explosive performance on Monday. We have a long way to run as of yet.
Enterprise value (Market Cap + net debt) at end of trading on Monday = $284bn. We are at an annualized Adj. EBITDA of ~$20bn based on the six months ended 2021 (note that this is less than management adj. EBITDA, as I don't add back share-based compensation or operating lease costs when bridging to adj. EBITDA...both are real expenses, never let anyone tell you otherwise).
Together, those give us 284/20 = 14x EV/Adj. EBITDA for the group as a whole. But this misses the bigger picture.
1. The adjusted EBITDA above doesn't include a cent from the BABA investment portfolio, including a 1/3rd stake in Ant financial, which is accounted for by the equity method (slide 10). By the way, they have over 300 distinct investments. Baba’s share in Ant alone was worth ~$100bn exactly one year ago. Say it's now a third of that, and you get the whole investment portfolio for free. That's a $33bn stake.
2. EBITDA multiples ignore valuable yet negative-EBITDA businesses. One example - the Digital Media & Entertainment sector had EBITA of around negative $400mm USD. This segment is predominantly Youku, which has ~60mm active daily users and 350-400mm monthly active users. It's the third largest video site in China and a fifth of SNAP's user base! On our multiple above, it alone subtracts $5.6bn* from the biz. value (*ignoring minimal depreciation here, BABA doesn't report segment-by-segment depreciation). Recall that they actually paid $5.5bn for it in 2014. Mark it at cost. Btw.... do you know any platform social media businesses that you can buy at 2014 valuations? I don't.
3. Alibaba Cloud - a biz with insane operational leverage, meaning profits scale exponentially with revenue. In 2021, they had $12.6bn of annualized revenue vs $64bn for AWS. Q3 saw 31% YoY growth despite losing a key customer. Adjusted EBITA is finally positive, at $115mm. This division is a fifth the size of AWS and almost half of Chinese cloud market share. They have a HUGE runway.
The average Cloud 100 valuation multiple was 34x revenue in 2021, but those grow quite a bit faster than 91%. Call it a 10x ARR for Alibab Cloud and there's $126bn of EV there alone. In our EBITDA multiple approach above, it was only $1.5bn.
4. Lastly, in this analysis we are ignoring that BABA is spending heavily on growth initiatives that depress profitability in the short term, but deliver in the long term. Let’s leave that out.
This is getting long, so let's wrap it up.
ADJ. EBITDA: Group less DME less Cloud less ANT contribution = $20 - 0.14 - 0.40 - N/A (equity accounting doesn't affect EBITDA) = $19.46bn.
Enterprise Value: Group ($284) less DME EV ($5) less Cloud EV ($126) less Ant EV ($33bn) = $120bn.
The core e-commerce group is trading at $120/$19.46 = 6.1x EBITDA.
Average trailing EV/EBITDA ratios for large cap US companies are 15x for communcations, 23x for IT and 23x for Consumer discretionary. No sector is less than 13x. Walmart trades at 16x. Microsoft is 26x. Amazon aggregated is 28x, twice BABA as a group. FB = 18x. eBay, literally the dinosaur of American e-commerce, trades at 8x. I don't know about you, but I haven't "Bought it now!" since 2006.
Baba isn’t a dinosaur quite yet. To those who complain that this might get delisted in the states, I say this…if that ever happens, just transfer your shares to HK. Same same.
This is a great business at a dirt cheap price. It’s a steal at these prices and it’s even more of one at anything beneath it. Personally, I’m thrilled to take advantage of this opportunity.
Anyone else feel like making some real money?
lol, feels sad for shorters.. so busy need to come to yahoo forum everyday to try to get people to sell. Longs are nicely set up, relaxing at home with a glass of wine in hand. This baby is not going anywhere.
It was reported on Wednesday that Alibaba’s research outfit DAMO Academy has teased a chip that stacks logic and memory in 3D, citing the Register.
Just FYI the short interest in BABA was less 1.4% that less than Amazon, AMD, FB,.....and now it's totally gone.
Let's see BABA > $160
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA, HKEX: 9988, "Alibaba Group") today announced that it will host a virtual 2021 Investor Day on December 16-17, 2021 China Standard Time. Speakers will include Daniel Zhang (Chairman and Chief Executive Officer), Maggie Wu (Chief Financial Officer), Toby Xu (Deputy Chief Financial Officer) and other members of its senior management team.
Alibaba Group will provide a webcast of key executives’ presentations during the 2021 Investor Day. The exact webcast time will be posted on the Investor Relations section of Alibaba Group’s corporate website at
before the 2021 Investor Day.
Shorters were smart to ride baba down from the highs, but to still be lurking short now is misguided.
UPDATE 1-U.S. House passes measure clamping down on products from China's Xinjiang region
Wed, December 8, 2021, 7:19 PM
(Adds more details, background, additional votes)
By Patricia Zengerle
WASHINGTON, Dec 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation on Wednesday to ban imports from China’s Xinjiang region over concerns about forced labor, one of three measures backed overwhelmingly as Washington continues its pushback against Beijing's treatment of its Uyghur Muslim minority.
It will hurt chinese import and Alibaba
The chip does exist. BABA unveils one of china's most advanced computer chips with nanometer technology. A.I. is here and BABA could be the forefront. Server chip, called Yitian 710, which will be used in new servers, named Panjiu, and is designed to further boost its cloud computing business.
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