Alleviation of Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt (FUD) > SAMR Regulation – Fine has been levied and is probably behind us US/China Politics – Biden admin seems more sympathetic - gave leeway to ByteDance and Tencent ADR / Delisting / Accounting – No FUD for NIO, PDD, XPEV, or others / BABA uses PwC / This posed no problem during BABA’s previous rise
Momentum > Without catalyst, expected within a month
Market Awareness> Market is aware BABA is undervalued
Possible Catalysts> 1. 6.18 Sales Results 2. Jack Ma appearance 3. Q2 Earnings Report
Of course my post was removed. So once more: Did you guys know BABA is not only ANT and Taobao? "Alibaba-Backed Huitongda filed today for Hong Kong IPO". This news is quite big. But yes, it is just Alibaba, so we have medicore + 0,2%. If it was JD or something like Facebook... Hmmmm. Anyway, this IPO was barely mentioned in the US media yet BABA owns 20% of the business and could be important play on the lower tier cities or rural areas for Alibaba . This was mentioned to be priority in the last conference...
I
Found 618 information Alibaba owns Tmall as well as Taobao Tmall is an offshoot of another successful Alibaba e-commerce platform – Taobao. The key difference between Tmall and Taobao is that while Tmall is a B2C platform, Taobao is C2C (think of it like the difference between Amazon and Ebay). ... Thus a key driver for Tmall's success is brand integrity. Here are the 618 numbers: According to the sales data monitoring of Syntun, during 2021 China "618" (from 00:00 on June 1, 2021 to 24:00 on June 18, 2021), the GMV of the major e-commerce platforms is 578.5 billion RMB, up 26.5% year-on-year, with Tmall platform ranking first. At the same time, the e-commerce livestreaming and new retail channels performed well during the "618", with the sales reaching 64.5 billion RMB and 17.8 billion RMB respectively. Every year, the "618" is a good time for many shopaholics to get the best deal, especially for the household appliances, which rank the first with a turnover of 824 billion RMB, followed closely by mobile communications, clothing & accessories...
J
Business grew 40% in core and stock price lost around 35% in since the top a few months ago.
1
- 9988 closed @ $207, so NYSE needs to close at $213.62 to strike arbitrage equilibrium - 9988 ending the week green is a rare occurrence and suggests optimism from impending 6-18 results - Baba SP is a function of driven systemic and unsystematic risk ... the former is decreasing (delisting of Chinese stocks, regulatory overhang etc), but at a slow-pace ... the latter risk is minor, as Baba valuation, scale opps, and geographic expansion are all impressive - NYSE peaked at $240 between Christmas'20 meltdown and today... when we get back to $240, that's when the SP has achieved the required consolidation and will be up, significantly, from there ... until then, will be more up n down - key 'up triggers' are 6-18, Q1 ER, and Ant definiton - @Filip said the same $240 target as I was typing, lol
JMHO
M
Value investors lets talk about the interesting stuff: did you have any personal experience with baba services and products? From my perspective, the aliexpress service to Europe is EXTREMELY efficient and competitive in a time of crisis/supply chain problems, very satisifed my last order of silk ties (just a try)! Please share your experiences, thanks a lot!
m
So Bloomberg reported that Ant could list its shares by the end of this year, according to a report from Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Valuation would be 60% lower than originally, but still, end of the year is soon!
m
If Ant IPO indeed proceeds before the end of the year, something I can't find on many major news sites despite Bloomberg discussing it, the process towards it should be announced in a couple of months. I can see enthusiasm and confidence come back in the run-up to the IPO. Just hold tight for now.
C
Anyways i dont see big mouvements before earnings ... We all need real data ... All these predictions pro and against babà on daily or weekly prices seem to me to be based on nothing... Blesssings from italy dear friends share holders ☺️🙏
I
Cathie Woods 🪵 article this morning says she just trimmed Netflix and purchased more JD Expectatiouns of China 🇨🇳 stocks to rebound though still holding fair amount of this point of her holdings in alibaba Ark Invest has been shedding shares of Alibaba but still holds 424,428 shares, worth $89.8 million, via ARKX, ARKQ and ARKF.
1
On Mad Money today, Cramer took 4 calls on “Am I Diversified?” Two of the callers had Baba in their 5 stock portfolio and he was supportive of that. FWIW.
A
Jack is about as relevant to $BABA as Bill is to $MSFT.
G
forget the short term price movement, at these prices you will for sure see great returns in 1 to 2 years. For those who say "that's what they said 3 years ago, return is 0 in that time" stop choosing a time period to suit your agenda, all stocks have highs and lows.... baba is up 175 percent over the last 5 years vs s&p only up 105 percent (not to mention s&p is over valued and at all time highs).
F
Hold green today, nice! See if anything can trigger an uptrend Monday, nice weekend
I
Today is triple witching Friday. In two weeks from today in July 1 one year ago 2020 BABA made it’s 50 point run from 214 to 264 {July 1st-15th} on 🐜 IPO news
B
According to the sales data monitoring of Syntun, during 2021 China "618" (from 00:00 on June 1, 2021 to 24:00 on June 18, 2021), the GMV of the major e-commerce platforms is 578.5 billion RMB, up 26.5% year-on-year, with Tmall platform ranking first.
E
if you have time, you can read some early reports from CITIC (state owned securities), some 618 highlights here: 2.5 times more brands, double VIP enrollment...in the first day; their views on cloud valuation and growth and competition is also very informative; some articles on the route of ANT IPO process and impact to baba; analysis on the results of softbank using baba shares to back their margin loans (interesting indirect valuation)........it's better than just dump long or short on this board,
J
Charlie munger bet 37 million on this company when it was at 227.. who here has out invested munger? I’ll wait.....
D
Very bullish end of week for BABA. Well done to all those who held the line.
Alleviation of Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt (FUD) >
SAMR Regulation – Fine has been levied and is probably behind us
US/China Politics – Biden admin seems more sympathetic - gave leeway to ByteDance and Tencent
ADR / Delisting / Accounting – No FUD for NIO, PDD, XPEV, or others / BABA uses PwC / This posed no problem during BABA’s previous rise
Momentum > Without catalyst, expected within a month
Market Awareness> Market is aware BABA is undervalued
Possible Catalysts>
1. 6.18 Sales Results
2. Jack Ma appearance
3. Q2 Earnings Report
https://chart-analysis.tools/BABA
But yes, it is just Alibaba, so we have medicore + 0,2%. If it was JD or something like Facebook... Hmmmm. Anyway, this IPO was barely mentioned in the US media yet BABA owns 20% of the business and could be important play on the lower tier cities or rural areas for Alibaba . This was mentioned to be priority in the last conference...
Alibaba owns Tmall as well as Taobao
Tmall is an offshoot of another successful Alibaba e-commerce platform – Taobao. The key difference between Tmall and Taobao is that while Tmall is a B2C platform, Taobao is C2C (think of it like the difference between Amazon and Ebay). ... Thus a key driver for Tmall's success is brand integrity.
Here are the 618 numbers:
According to the sales data monitoring of Syntun, during 2021 China "618" (from 00:00 on June 1, 2021 to 24:00 on June 18, 2021), the GMV of the major e-commerce platforms is 578.5 billion RMB, up 26.5% year-on-year, with Tmall platform ranking first.
At the same time, the e-commerce livestreaming and new retail channels performed well during the "618", with the sales reaching 64.5 billion RMB and 17.8 billion RMB respectively. Every year, the "618" is a good time for many shopaholics to get the best deal, especially for the household appliances, which rank the first with a turnover of 824 billion RMB, followed closely by mobile communications, clothing & accessories...
- 9988 ending the week green is a rare occurrence and suggests optimism from impending 6-18 results
- Baba SP is a function of driven systemic and unsystematic risk ... the former is decreasing (delisting of Chinese stocks, regulatory overhang etc), but at a slow-pace ... the latter risk is minor, as Baba valuation, scale opps, and geographic expansion are all impressive
- NYSE peaked at $240 between Christmas'20 meltdown and today... when we get back to $240, that's when the SP has achieved the required consolidation and will be up, significantly, from there ... until then, will be more up n down
- key 'up triggers' are 6-18, Q1 ER, and Ant definiton
- @Filip said the same $240 target as I was typing, lol
JMHO
Ark Invest has been shedding shares of Alibaba but still holds 424,428 shares, worth $89.8 million, via ARKX, ARKQ and ARKF.
In two weeks from today in July 1 one year ago 2020 BABA made it’s 50 point run from 214 to 264 {July 1st-15th} on 🐜 IPO news