|Bid||175.02 x 0|
|Ask||174.86 x 0|
|Day's range||174.20 - 175.87|
|52-week range||131.04 - 192.99|
|Beta (5Y monthly)||0.84|
|PE ratio (TTM)||17.30|
|Earnings date||13 Feb 2020|
|Forward dividend & yield||0.07 (4.01%)|
|Ex-dividend date||08 Aug 2019|
|1y target est||221.84|
(Bloomberg) -- Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world embroiled in trade wars. Sign up here. Japanese exports dropped more than expected in December, with the shipments slump dragging on for a 13th month despite recent signs of green shoots in global manufacturing.The value of shipments overseas fell 6.3% from a year earlier, weighed down by sliding exports of cars and auto parts, Ministry of Finance data showed Thursday. The result undershot the estimates of all 28 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The median forecast was for a 4.3% decline. December’s drop in overall exports extended the longest stretch of declines since 2016.Still, the report also showed strong gains in shipments of semiconductor-making equipment, adding to evidence of a bottoming of the global tech cycle. That’s a positive for Japan’s outlook, even if economists expect a recovery in the overall figure to be slow. Exports to China, the country’s single biggest overseas market, also inched up for the first time in 10 months.Key InsightsThe monthly data cap a miserable year for Japanese shipments abroad. Exports in 2019 fell 5.6% for the first drop in three years.The ongoing drop in exports adds to headwinds facing a Japanese economy forecast to have shrunk an annualized 3.7% in the fourth quarter as domestic factors, including typhoon damage and a hike in the sales tax, hit growth.Still, accelerating gains in shipments of chip-making equipment, which rose 25.8% in December, could indicate a turnaround in the tech industry, whose yearlong slump has been a large factor in Japan’s trade woes.“The bottoming out of the adjustments in the IT sector is a positive factor and that should support a recovery,” said Barclays economist Kazuma Maeda, who also said a clear rebound would take time.The phase-one trade agreement signed this month between the U.S.-and China should also brighten the outlook for shipments in 2020, though tensions could flare up again.In the near-term, there’s also less onus now on Japan’s exports to support growth since the Abe administration last month unveiled $120 billion in economic stimulus measures. The package was a big reason the Bank of Japan this week raised its growth forecast for the coming fiscal year, though it warned that overseas risks still need careful monitoring.What Bloomberg’s Economist Says“The phase-one trade deal is positive, in that it could help lift demand from China. Without a stronger performance in the U.S., though, exports are likely to remain sluggish overall..”\--Yuki Masujima, economistClick here to read more.Get MoreImports slid 4.9% in December, compared with economists’ median estimate for a 3.2% drop.The trade balance was a 152.5 billion yen deficit, roughly in line with analysts’ forecasts.Exports to the U.S. dropped 14.9%, while those to Europe fell 5.6%.Car shipments slid 11.8%; auto parts declined 10.9%.On the positive side, shipments to China edged up 0.8%, led by a near 60% surge in chip equipment to the market.Overall shipments of semiconductor-making equipment rose 25.8%, much better than the average double-digit declines of April-September. Chip exports increased by 2.6%.(Adds economists’ comment and detail throughout.)\--With assistance from Toru Fujioka.To contact the reporter on this story: Yuko Takeo in Tokyo at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Malcolm Scott at email@example.com, Jason Clenfield, Paul JacksonFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
Britain's regulators should have a formal role after Brexit to keep the financial sector globally competitive and less prone to "gold-plating" international norms, an industry think tank said on Thursday. The International Regulatory Strategy Group (IRSG) said new thinking and targeted reforms were required after Britain leaves the European Union on Jan. 31.
Stress testing of banks in the European Union to check their ability to withstand market shocks without taxpayer help should be eased to cut bank costs, the EU's banking regulator proposed on Wednesday. The European Banking Authority (EBA) proposed a new framework that would allow banks to publish their own results of the stress test alongside the EBA's. Only one set of results are published now. "The framework we are proposing today aims at making the EU-wide stress test more informative, flexible, and cost-effective," EBA Chair Jose Manuel Campa said in a statement.
Westpac Banking Corp is set to appoint former Australia and New Zealand Banking Group chief executive John McFarlane to succeed chairman Lindsay Maxsted, the Australian Financial Review (AFR) reported https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/westpac-to-appoint-john-mcfarlane-as-chairman-20200122-p53trm on Wednesday. Maxsted, who served as Westpac's chairman for eight years, said in November he would retire in the first half of 2020 after the bank was embroiled in a money laundering scandal involving child exploitation. The scandal saw Chief Executive Brian Hartzer step down after more than seven years with the company, while Maxsted said he would retire in early 2020, sooner than planned.
(Bloomberg) -- China’s fragile economic stabilization could be at risk if authorities fail to contain the new virus currently sweeping across Asia, economists have warned.UBS Group AG, Nomura Holdings Inc. and Barclays Bank PLC reached back to the 2003 SARS outbreak for guidance on potential impact.UBS noted that “history does not repeat itself, but it rhymes,” while Nomura said that based on the outbreak 17 years ago, it expects “increased downward pressure on China’s growth, particularly in the services sector.” Barclays expects the “economic impact from the virus is likely to be transitory, with the effects felt more in transportation and retail sales.”Chinese officials are stepping up monitoring of domestic transport links as the death toll increased to nine from six previously. Health officials around the world are racing to gauge the danger posed by the SARS-like virus as confirmed cases have stretched to five additional countries, including the first diagnosis in the U.S.While the virus’s arrival in the U.S. highlights the dangers of it spreading and impacting economies around the world, even if it’s contained to China, there would still be a hit to global growth. That’s because China’s weight has more than doubled since the 2003 SARS epidemic. It is estimated to account for about one-fifth of the world economy this year, compared with 8.7% at the time of SARS, International Monetary Fund data show.What Bloomberg’s Economists Say...“The changing structure of China’s economy increases the risks. A larger services sector and bigger role for consumption mean a disease outbreak that hits shopping, eating out, and other leisure activities will have a bigger impact. A larger role for financial markets means more potential for shocks to trigger a blow to sentiment.”\--Tom Orlik and Chang ShuTerminal clients can read the full note HEREUBS economists Wang Tao and Ning Zhang noted the ongoing peak travel season around the Lunar New Year “is a tremendous challenge, which could complicate the disease diffusion.”“If the pneumonia couldn’t be contained in the short term, we expect China’s retail sales, tourism, hotel & catering, travel activities likely to be hit, especially in Q1 and early Q2,” UBS said. “Our forecast of sequential growth rebound in Q1 and Q2 2020 would face some downside risk. The government would likely strengthen its policy easing to offset the shock from the pneumonia, especially for those directly affected sectors.”Barclays economists including Chang Jian also see prospects for targeted credit and fiscal support if the spread intensifies.(Updates with Barclays comments in the third paragraph.)\--With assistance from Garfield Reynolds.To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Heath in Sydney at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Malcolm Scott at email@example.com, James MaygerFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- The worst-case scenarios for Boeing Co.’s 737 Max crisis no longer look far-fetched.The airplane maker said Tuesday that its “best estimate” for when regulators will lift a flying ban on its Max jet is now mid-2020. The once top-selling plane has been grounded since March following two fatal crashes. The updated timeline reportedly reflects a new, recently discovered software flaw connected to how the Max’s flight computers power up and verify they’re receiving valid data, as well as the need to correct vulnerabilities in certain wiring bundles. Boeing said it’s also accounting for “further developments that may arise in connection with the certification process.”Perhaps the company is finally taking a more conservative attitude toward the Max crisis after a series of overly optimistic promises left its reputation in tatters and CEO Dennis Muilenburg without a job. The Federal Aviation Administration, for its part, reiterated that there’s no time frame for the Max’s return and that safety is its first priority. Airlines and suppliers now have to recalibrate accordingly, and this latest delay will be by far the most painful for them.With its stockpile of undeliverable jets growing and its cash burn deepening, Boeing had already made the call to halt production of the Max once it became clear it wouldn’t meet its previous deadline for a return to service by the end of 2019. The shutdown, which began in January, has already forced suppliers to idle their factories as well and, in some cases, to lay off employees. In one of the more extreme examples, Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc., which gets more than half its revenue from the Max, saw the rating on its debt cut to junk by Moody’s Investors Service earlier this month and is cutting about 2,800 workers. In total, economists from Barclays and JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimated the Max production shutdown could subtract half a percentage point from U.S. gross domestic product in the first quarter. Investors were expecting total compensation to affected airlines to amount to about $10 billion, according to a survey conducted by Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned. If that sounds bad, consider that the baseline case among investors and analysts before Tuesday’s update was that Max deliveries would resume by March or April.The major U.S. airlines have all pulled the Max from their schedules through June in what they thought would be a conservative call. The logistical challenges of bringing jets out of storage and putting pilots through the simulator training that Boeing has now decided to recommend means that the airlines will likely have to go without their Max fleets for yet another peak travel season. That is likely to drive even more market share toward Delta Air Lines Inc., which doesn’t fly the Max and has been benefiting from that fact. The longer the grounding lasts, the more permanent those share gains may be. Either way, expect airlines to significantly increase their demands for compensation.The biggest pain will be felt by Boeing’s suppliers. A three-month production shutdown is one thing; a six-month halt is something else, entirely. Getting supplier factories humming to the point where they could meet Boeing’s Max production pace required a logistical miracle and some parts-makers actually used the first few months of the grounding to play catch-up. At a minimum, suppliers run the risk of workers leaving for more secure jobs amid a buoyant labor market. Taco Bell is offering a $100,000 salary for a restaurant manager position, for heaven’s sake. For others, the damage may be more lasting. Boeing enjoys an effective duopoly with Airbus SE that has helped buoy profits over the years and arguably protected it from greater financial pain in the form of canceled Max orders. The flip side of that is that some suppliers depend heavily on Boeing for their business. The biggest producers such as General Electric Co., Honeywell International Inc. and United Technologies Corp. will be able to weather the hit from a prolonged production halt; smaller suppliers risk going bankrupt.This will all come back to haunt Boeing once it’s finally ready to restart production. With a legitimate debate about the sustainability of air traffic growth at the levels needed to maintain demand, it’s not out of the question that the company might not ever reach its target of producing 57 Max jets per month. Air Lease Corp. Chairman Steven Udvar-Hazy said Monday that his company had urged Boeing to drop the Max name to make the plane more palatable for fliers. But the longer the grounding drags on, the likelihood increases that Boeing will need to make more than just a name change for the latest iteration of its 737 model and instead plow billions into a true successor. To contact the author of this story: Brooke Sutherland at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Beth Williams at email@example.comThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.Brooke Sutherland is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering deals and industrial companies. She previously wrote an M&A column for Bloomberg News.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinionSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
Larry Kudlow said negative rates are 'really bad for banks, they're really bad for savers, they're not great for investors.'