BARC.L - Barclays PLC
| Previous close | 148.70 |
| Open | 149.00 |
| Bid | 145.00 x 0 |
| Ask | 158.00 x 0 |
| Day's range | 148.40 - 157.30 |
| 52-week range | 131.04 - 181.00 |
| Volume | 55,226,911 |
| Avg. volume | 48,636,100 |
| Market cap | 27.016B |
| Beta (3Y monthly) | 0.46 |
| PE ratio (TTM) | 8.75 |
| EPS (TTM) | 17.90 |
| Earnings date | 25 Oct 2019 |
| Forward dividend & yield | 0.07 (4.71%) |
| Ex-dividend date | 2019-08-08 |
| 1y target est | 221.84 |
- Bloomberg
EM Review: Trade Truce Hopes, ECB Bazooka Fueled Risk Appetite
(Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market currencies posted the longest streak of gains since January 2018 and stocks rose to a six-week high as global monetary easing and prospects of a trade truce -- even if a temporary one -- made investors more comfortable with riskier assets. As the European Central Bank cut rates and announced a new stimulus plan, markets are waiting for the Federal Reserve to confirm bets on additional easing.The following is a roundup of emerging-markets news and highlights for the week ending Sept. 13.Highlights:U.S. officials have discussed offering a limited trade agreement to China that would delay and even roll back some U.S. tariffs in exchange for Chinese commitments on intellectual property and agricultural purchases, according to five people familiar with the matterBefore that, President Donald Trump had said he was postponing the imposition of 5% extra tariffs on Chinese goods by two weeksEarlier, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Fox Business that Washington and Beijing made “a lot of progress” in trade negotiationsThe U.S. is considering an executive order to crack down on shipments of fentanyl and counterfeit goods, according to people familiar with the matter, a move aimed in part at pressuring China to help the U.S. combat its opioid epidemicChina announced a range of U.S. goods to be exempted from 25% extra tariffs put in place last year, as the government seeks to ease the impact from the trade war without lifting charges on major agricultural items like soybeans and porkThe Asian country is considering whether to permit renewed imports of American farm goods including soybeans and pork, according to people familiar with the situationSaudi Arabia’s oil production was cut by half after a swarm of explosive drones struck at the heart of the kingdom’s energy industry and set the world’s biggest crude-processing plant ablaze -- an attack blamed on Iran by the top U.S. diplomatSaudi Aramco has picked a slew of banks to work on its planned initial public offering following intense lobbying by some of the world’s top dealmakers, people with knowledge of the matter saidThe European Central Bank cut the deposit rate to a record-low minus 0.5% and said it’ll buy 20 billion euros ($22 billion) a month of debt for as long as neededNorth Korea delivered a pointed message to the Trump administration -- firing two “short-range projectiles” into its eastern seas hours after saying it was willing to restart nuclear talks with the U.S.Turkey’s new central bank governor delivered another interest-rate cut that exceeded forecasts as he balances calls for drastic easing from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with the market’s fragile sentiment. The key rate was cut to 16.5% from 19.75% and the lira advancedTrump discussed easing sanctions on Iran to help secure a meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani later this month, prompting then-National Security Advisor John Bolton to argue forcefully against such a step, according to three people familiar with the matterEmerging-market exchange-traded funds received inflows for a second straight week, led by Mexican stocksAsia:Global funds no longer need approval to purchase quotas to buy Chinese stocks and bonds, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange saidChina’s producer price index fell further into contraction, signaling a worsening economic slowdown that threatens to add deflationary pressures to the global economy. Credit growth rebounded faster than expected in AugustThe country is opening the door to soybean meal shipments from Argentina, the world’s biggest exporter of the animal feed, as Beijing looks to pivot away from U.S. agricultural products amid a trade war with WashingtonSouth Korea’s unemployment rate plummeted to the lowest level in nearly six years in August, a rare positive sign for an economy facing headwinds from weak global demandPresident Moon Jae-in appointed to the position of justice minister a close confidant who faced a grilling in the media and in parliament over allegations of corruption and nepotismIndia is making all efforts to boost the economy and create jobs, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman saidInflation accelerated in August, reaching the highest level since October, while remaining within the central bank’s medium-term targetThe nation has called a meeting of state-run bank chiefs next week to review lenders passing on interest-rate cuts to customers, people with the knowledge of the matter saidBank of Thailand Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob said the baht’s appreciation is a big concern for the country’s exporters. Finance Minister Uttama Savanayana said the central bank closely monitors the currencyThe government is ready to take new economic steps if the ones already rolled out are insufficient, Uttama saidThe World Bank projects Indonesia’s economic growth will slow to below 5% next year and warned of “severe” outflows if global risks worsenThe country expects to complete $10.9 billion of strategic projects this year, according to a statement issued by Coordinating Ministry for Economic AffairsIndonesian sovereign bonds will extend a rally as foreign funds keep chasing high-yield securities amid a global slowdown and a low interest-rate environment, according to a government officialThe nation must speed up reforms aimed at boosting foreign investment and bolstering the economy to counter risks of a global recession, President Joko Widodo saidMalaysia’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3% for a second straight meeting as the economy posts steady growth despite mounting global risks. “Domestic drivers of growth, alongside stable labor market and wage growth, are expected to remain supportive of economic activity,” Bank Negara Malaysia said in a statementThe government will need to seek fiscal space in its 2020 state budget to prioritize sustainable economic growth, Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng saidTaiwan’s exports rebounded more than expected in August, as the protracted China-U.S. trade war accelerates manufacturing relocation and the new iPhone launch cycle lifts demandChina again urges the Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party to immediately withdraw their “black hands” in Hong Kong, spokesman from China’s Taiwan Affairs Office saidPhilippines’ trade deficit widened to $3.4 billion in July after narrowing in the previous two months, compared with a revised shortfall of $2.4 billion in JuneCurrent account deficit narrowed to $1.7b in 1H from shortfall of $3.8b the year earlierHouse of Representatives approved bill gradually reducing transaction tax rate on listed stocks from current 0.6% to 0.1% in 2024Philippine central bank Governor Benjamin Diokno said another policy rate cut of at least 25 basis points could come as early as this monthEMEA:South Africa’s longer-maturity debt and the low level of foreign-currency bonds is “more of a strength than a weakness” for the country’s credit rating, according to Moody’s Investors ServiceBusiness confidence slumped to the lowest level since disinvestment from the country over its apartheid policies more than three decades agoFactory output contracted for the second consecutive month in July as the output of petroleum and chemical products and basic iron and steel continued to shrinkTalks around restructuring Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd.’s bonds must be approached carefully to avoid spooking the market, according to S&P Global RatingsThe Nigerian government is holding on to its economic growth projection of 3% this year even after expansion missed forecasts in the second quarterA local court upheld President Muhammadu Buhari’s victory in February elections, dismissing a challenge by the main opposition candidate that sought to overturn the winTurkey’s 12-month rolling current-account surplus widened to the highest level since January 2002 as weak consumer demand continued to curb importsZimbabwean Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube established a Monetary Policy Committee in his latest attempt to stabilize an economy in freefallSerbia’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged at a record low, pausing after two unexpected cuts to assess the impact of looser monetary policy on below-target economic growth and slowing inflation. The benchmark rate was held at 2.5%Surging inflation and a government plan to nearly double the minimum wage weren’t enough to make Poland abandon its pledge to keep borrowing costs at a record-low for the foreseeable future. The central bank left its key rate at 1.5%Romanian inflation slowed for the second month in three, with the lack of sustained direction in prices bolstering the central bank’s stance to keep interest rates on holdCzech consumer prices rose 2.9% from a year earlier in August, exceeding the 2.8% median analysts’ estimate and the central bank’s own projection of 2.6%The Tadawul All Share Index almost wiped out this year’s gains after Saudi Arabia picked banks for the Aramco saleAramco is considering a structure for its initial public offering that would prevent it from marketing the deal directly to fund managers in the U.S., people with knowledge of the matter saidSaudi Arabia held discussions with some of the kingdom’s wealthiest families about becoming anchor investors in Aramco’s mammoth share sale, according to five people with knowledge of the talksLebanon’s government is unlikely to tap international bond markets at current market rates, an official said, days after the indebted country’s finance minister announced plans for a sale of up to $2 billion in NovemberEgypt will approach investment banks “very soon” to advise on a plan to raise between $3 billion and $7 billion from international debt markets by June, a Finance Ministry official saidInflation eased in August to its lowest level since the start of 2013, paving the way for what could be the second-biggest push to cut interest rates across emerging marketsZimbabwe’s central bank raised its main interest rate to 70% to stabilize a plummeting currency and rein in surging inflationLatin AmericaArgentina’s recently imposed capital controls are now creating impediments for bondholders looking to collect payments as their securities come dueThe International Monetary Fund is unlikely to grant a $5.4 billion disbursement to Argentina without knowing the economic policy plans of the government that takes over in December, according to people familiar with the situationCountry’s economy minister is headed to Washington this month for more talks on the country’s record International Monetary Fund loan, which has hit trouble after the government imposed capital controls and delayed debt payments amid a market slumpDollar reserves continue to shrink as businesses and savers move money out of banks, increasing the chances that the government will need to tighten capital controls in coming weeksPresidential front-runner Alberto Fernandez is expected to visit Mexico on Sept 19 to meet with President Andres Manuel Lopez ObradorInflation was little changed at 54.5% in August, less than the 55.4% forecast by analystsMexico’s inflation slowed sharply in August to very near the central bank’s target, bolstering the case for policy makers to lower borrowing costs furtherManufacturing production increased 3% from a year earlier, three times more than economists expected and partly offsetting a drop in the broader industrial sectorState-run oil producer Petroleos Mexicanos tapped the international bond market and announced cash tender offers for outstanding bondsPemex also to receive a $5 billion capital injection from the Mexican government to improve its debt profileLopez Obrador sent Congress a 2020 budget plan that assumes a growth scenario many economists see as too optimisticBrazil’s economy contracted in July after two months of gains, according to a key gauge of activity, as the central bank prepares to cut interest rates again in its efforts to boost growthBrazil-based funds significantly reduced bets on falling interest rates last month as the real slumped 8%Retail sales rose five times more than economists expected in JulyGovernment has announced the rules for an auction of oil drilling rights worth $26 billion, setting the stage for Latin America’s top crude producer to become an even bigger player in the global marketA senior Brazilian lawmaker expressed confidence that the pension reform bill currently in the Senate won’t have to return to the lower house for further scrutiny, a move that would delay the crucial legislation and unsettle investorsThe special secretary for the tax office has resigned amid a fierce debate over the possible introduction of a tax on financial transactionsPresident Jair Bolsonaro has flip-flopped on key appointments to Brazil’s antitrust regulator, leaving the respected body in a state of paralysis and subject to accusations of political interferenceChile will submit a bill to Congress within six months to make it more attractive for foreign companies to sell stocks and bonds in the local market, Finance Minister Felipe Larrain saidPeru’s central bank kept its reference rate unchanged at 2.5% while signaling it’s ready to consider increasing stimulus after the economy’s worst slump in almost decadeThe government’s plan to reduce its fiscal deficit by increasing revenue faces risks due to slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings saidColombia’s economic committees for the Senate and Lower House approved the amount of 271.7 trillion pesos ($81 billion) for the nation’s 2020 budgetGovernment will take on 19.2 trillion pesos in new debt to fund its 2020 budget, Finance Minister Alberto Carrasquilla said\--With assistance from Colleen Goko and Selcuk Gokoluk.To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Yumi Teso in Bangkok at yteso1@bloomberg.net;Netty Ismail in Dubai at nismail3@bloomberg.net;Aline Oyamada in Sao Paulo at aoyamada3@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Tomoko Yamazaki at tyamazaki@bloomberg.net, Karl Lester M. YapFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
- Reuters - UK Focus
UPDATE 2-Brexit optimism breathes life into UK-focussed stocks
UK stocks ended Friday on a high note as optimism that a no-deal Brexit could be avoided spurred a rally in stocks with domestic exposure, overpowering losses in blue-chip exporter stocks that were hit by a stronger sterling. The FTSE 100 rose 0.3%, with homebuilder Barratt jumping nearly 6% to top the gainers. The country's big banks Lloyds, Royal Bank of Scotland and Barclays added more than 5%.
- Yahoo Finance UK
Ex-Barclays innovation head: There's 'opportunity to re-think value'
Kirsty Rutter, who left the bank in May, said company valuations should take into account environmental and social impact.
- Reuters
Deutsche Bank is first to settle bond-rigging lawsuit, amid federal probe
Deutsche Bank AG will pay $15 million to resolve claims it conspired to rig prices of bonds issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac , becoming the first of 16 financial services companies to settle litigation by investors. The German bank did not admit wrongdoing in agreeing to the settlement, which also requires that it bolster its antitrust compliance procedures and cooperate with the investors. The settlement was disclosed in filings late Wednesday in Manhattan federal court.
- Fool.co.uk
How low can the Barclays share price go?
The Barclays plc (LON: BARC) share price fell below its 2016 low in August. I think there could be worse to come.
- Bloomberg
Carrefour Bid for Casino Would Be a Big Roll of the Dice
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Talk of a tie-up between the French hypermarket stalwart Carrefour SA and its arch-rival Casino Guichard Perrachon SA is back, almost a year after a first stab at exploring the idea ended in a public clash of egos and accusations of dishonesty.Carrefour has again denied an offer is in the works, but shares of the heavily-indebted, heavily-shorted Casino rose 3% on Monday after BFM reported that the grocery chain was thinking about an approach. While there would be obvious advantages for both sides in a deal, navigating the politics around potential job cuts and getting to an agreed price would be tough. A selective sale of assets looks more likely.The time passed since this combination was last considered has at least made a difference in how the big personalities involved – Carrefour boss Alexandre Bompard and Casino’s boss and lead shareholder Jean-Charles Naouri – might think about a move to create France’s biggest supermarket group. In late 2018, Naouri’s debt-laden empire was under attack from short-sellers, Casino shares were trading near 20-year lows and trust was at a minimum. Despite both men’s similar background in France’s elite schools and civil service corps, nothing clicked. Bompard, 24 years Naouri’s junior, reportedly enraged his rival by using the informal “tu” to address him.The pressure on Naouri has intensified since his investment vehicle Rallye SA (through which he controls Casino) entered creditor protection in May, but Casino is in a happier place. Its share price has jumped about 50% in a year, giving it a market value of 5 billion euros ($5.5 billion). It’s no longer being squeezed to help pay off Rallye’s debts and its Monoprix and Franprix stores give it a leading position in Paris. Online delivery deals with Amazon.com Inc. and Ocado Group Plc are another positive.This has left Naouri in a better position than some of his hedge fund antagonists were anticipating. He still controls Casino, even if his shares have been pledged to bank lenders as collateral, and the rebound in the company’s market value is a bonus. Daniel Kretinsky, a Czech billionaire, has backed his strategy by buying a Casino stake. While there’s still a need to sell assets to lighten Rallye’s debt load, Naouri has options to avoid a fire sale.On Carrefour’s side, Bompard would be foolish not to take a serious look at Casino given the intense competition in France’s supermarket sector. Carrefour’s 20% share of the French grocery market is in danger of being chipped away by its closure of hypermarkets and the threat from German discount chains such as Lidl. Adding Casino’s 11% market share would remove a rival and save money. Barclays estimates that the deal could deliver about 1 billion euros in gross synergies, or 1% of the companies’ combined annual revenues.Politics and price are, however, serious hurdles. Casino shares already trade at a premium to the sector, and the company would probably demand a sweetener to give up control. Carrefour has cash after selling a stake in a China business, but a higher value bid would force it to try to extract more savings. That might not be easy with regulators almost certainly demanding store disposals and France’s president Emmanuel Macron desperate to avoid layoffs.Asset sales might be better, or maybe a Brazil-only deal. Carrefour’s and Casino’s combined Brazil entities would have a market share of 54% in that country so some disposals would be necessary. But it might still be a way to free up some cash for Naouri and improve Carrefour’s profit margins in Latin America. Given the barbs being traded between Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro and Macron over trade and the environment, this might be one idea on which the leaders can agree.To contact the author of this story: Lionel Laurent at llaurent2@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: James Boxell at jboxell@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Lionel Laurent is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Brussels. He previously worked at Reuters and Forbes.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
- Bloomberg
Markets Take a Trip to Normalcy as Traders Await the ECB
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- There are times when the fundamentals get thrown out the window and greater forces take over the market. The first part of this week was a prime example as investors decided en masse to do some rebalancing by shifting out of stocks that have outperformed largely because of sheer momentum into those that have lagged, namely deeply discounted value stocks. This shift did little to overall valuations, with the MSCI All-Country World Index gaining a grand total of 0.01% on both Monday and Tuesday. Markets returned to some sense of normalcy on Wednesday, with the MSCI surging as much as 0.72% to its highest since the start of August. The move may be a sign investors are confident the European Central Bank on Thursday will pull out the proverbial bazooka to spur the region’s flagging economy and encourage other major central banks to follow suit. That means not only cutting interest rates and turning dovish on the outlook for rates but also announcing a plan to resume quantitative easing by buying at least 40 billion euros ($44 billion) of bonds each month for a year. Such speculation was reinforced by a rally in euro zone government bonds Wednesday and the Bloomberg Euro Index touching its lowest since mid-2017. But it’s also likely the ECB stores the bazooka and pulls out the pellet gun instead. Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau is one of several ECB policy makers who have signaled skepticism over the need for renewed QE. In fact, some strategists including James Bianco of Bianco Research consider the ECB’s decision to be perhaps the most important central bank decision of the next few weeks, and that includes the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Sept. 18.According to Bianco, if ECB policy makers do not deliver the expected rate cut or a new QE program Thursday, they would be “sending a powerful signal that they have indeed reached their limit” of effectiveness. The alternative isn’t that great, either, because it would mean policy makers “don’t know what else to do,” Bianco wrote in a research note. “This will only further damage their financial system,” he added. So while equity markets have benefited greatly from extraordinary central bank stimulus since the financial crisis, the times may soon be changing.THE GREAT BOND ROTATIONThe bond market, of course, also has a vested interest in the ECB’s decision. At least some of the backup in government debt yields globally the last week or so can be attributed to some doubts that the ECB will resume its QE program in light of the push-back from Villeroy and other officials. But, as always, there is more going on in the bond market, which has also been caught up in the rotation from “momentum” to “value,” skewing the signals being sent by bond yields. That can be seen in this month’s best-performing bond markets, which happen to have been the biggest losers in August. And this month’s losers were last month’s winners. The Bloomberg Barclays China Aggregate Index tumbled 2.95% in August even as the broader market rallied. This month, it’s up 0.61% while the broader market is down. Another big turnaround is taking place in the global high-yield bond market, which has gained 0.74% this month after tumbling 1.56% in August in its largest slide since October 2018. Government bonds globally are down 1.18% this month after surging 2.59% in August to match their best monthly performance since June 2016. But as with equities, this rotational move may come to an end with the ECB meeting Thursday. “We live in an interconnected world and any adjustment in European rates will have an effect on” rates in the U.S. and elsewhere, Bianco added in his research note. But if the ECB decides not to cut rates or resume QE, “we could start the conversation” on whether rates globally have bottomed.CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FORPresident Donald Trump took another shot at the Fed on Wednesday, tweeting that it should “get our interest rates down to ZERO, or less.” He ended the missive by calling policy makers “boneheads.” On the surface, zero or even negative interest rates sound attractive, but there is a growing sense that they do more harm than good, especially to the banking system. And a healthy banking system is generally accepted as a key to a healthy economy. Consider Europe, where the Euro STOXX Bank Index has dropped 39% from last year’s peak in January. The banking industry makes a large chunk of its money by borrowing at low short-term rates and lending the proceeds at higher long-term ones, pocketing the difference. That becomes impossible when rates are zero or negative and yield curves flatten as a result. Lenders including Deutsche Bank AG and UBS Group AG have already complained about the hit to their profitability from the ECB’s policies, potentially hindering their ability to supply the credit that fuels the economy, according to Bloomberg News’s Yuko Takeo and Nicholas Comfort. They point out that the ECB’s deposit rate used to be the interest banks received for keeping their excess cash at the central bank overnight, but at minus 0.4%, it has become a charge, one that Deutsche Bank says could cost it hundreds of millions of euros this year. Scope Ratings figures that euro-area banks have incurred 23 billion euros of charges at the ECB since negative rates started in 2014 and are now paying almost 7 billion euros a year. MEXICO’S LOOKING UPInverted yield curves happen when long-term rates in the bond market fall below short-term ones. This phenomenon is generally believed to augur a recession, or at least a severe economic slowdown. In the current environment, there is no shortage of inverted yield curves around the world. One place where an inverted yield curve may be sending false signal is in Mexico. The peso is one of the world’s best performers this month, appreciating 2.77% against the dollar, as recession fears ease and the nation’s inverted yield curve looks poised to turn positive. The 2-year/10-year swap rate spread now stands at just minus 2 basis points, compared with a nadir of 23 basis points a month ago, when Mexico seemed headed for recession, according to Bloomberg News’s George Lei. As it turned out, the nation managed to skirt two consecutive quarters of contraction, and the central bank provided an extra boost by cutting interest rates in August. Banxico’s decision to cut rates by 25 basis points on Aug. 15 helped send the spread higher because it was sooner than most people expected, said Jens Nystedt, a senior portfolio manager at Emso Asset Management. Dovish remarks from Mexican policy makers and a slowdown in inflation toward the 3% target also helped, Nystedt said.NATURAL GAS IS GETTING INTERESTINGMany traders got burned when natural gas suddenly shot up some 41% last November before tumbling 36% in December. The wild swings were widely thought to be tied to a complicated trade set up by one or more big investors that in essence bet on a gain in oil and a drop in natural gas. When oil started moving opposite of the desired direction, the trader, traders or even a company in the energy industry had to quickly reverse their positions, exacerbating the moves in oil and natural gas. Now the natural gas market is setting up for some more wild volatility tied to what traders believe will we a winter supply crunch. The premium that gas for delivery next March is fetching over the April contract, a spread known as the widow-maker for its volatility, has jumped 60% in the past two weeks, according to Bloomberg News’s Naureen S. Malik. Though production from shale basins is at a record, the demand boost is poised to limit how much is added to underground stockpiles. That’s stoking concern about a potential supply squeeze in the winter, when consumption of the heating fuel peaks, Malik reports. While gas prices have climbed over the past two weeks, futures are still near the lowest levels since 2001 for the time of year, straining producers’ balance sheets. That means this winter could be make-or-break for some explorers, said Rich Redash, head of global gas planning with S&P Global Platts.TEA LEAVESFor all the talk about nonexistent inflation, the data seem to be showing something different. The core U.S. consumer price index rose 0.3 percent in both June and July, the first back-to-back increases of that size since 2001. The government on Thursday is forecast to say that the measure rose 0.2% in August. But any increase above that is sure to roil markets, where high prices for most all financial assets have been predicated on minuscule inflation. The increases in June and July “combined with upward surprises on average hourly earnings in July and August suggest that firmer inflation pressures are finally re-emerging, and that soft inflation earlier this year was, in fact, transitory,” the team at Bloomberg Economics wrote in a research note.DON’T MISSHow Presidents Should Talk About the Fed: Narayana KocherlakotaTrump, So-Called ‘King of Debt,’ Doesn't Get It: Brian ChappattaThe Hopes and Fears of Markets Are Left to Politics: Conor SenItaly Has a Golden Bond Market Opportunity: Marcus AshworthNewton Saw This Crash in Momentum Stocks Coming: John AuthersTo contact the author of this story: Robert Burgess at bburgess@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Daniel Niemi at dniemi1@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Robert Burgess is an editor for Bloomberg Opinion. He is the former global executive editor in charge of financial markets for Bloomberg News. As managing editor, he led the company’s news coverage of credit markets during the global financial crisis.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
- Bloomberg
Barclays Activist Bramson Slams British Bank’s ‘Destructive Strategy’
(Bloomberg) -- Barclays Plc’s activist investor Edward Bramson has taken a fresh swipe at the bank, telling his investors that its new chairman must address the lender’s “destructive strategy.”Bramson, who became one of Barclays’s top investors last year, said in a recent letter seen by Bloomberg News that the securities unit is still far from competitive. However, it’s too early to draw a conclusion on whether Nigel Higgins, who took over the chairmanship in May, is making the right changes, Bramson wrote. Barclays’s Chief Executive Officer Jes Staley has been the key defender of its investment bank since taking the reins in 2015.“For the time being we think it is the best course to wait to see whether or not Mr Higgins can address Barclays’ current value destructive strategy with a scalpel or if more comprehensive change will be required,” Bramson said in the letter sent Sept. 3, which made no mention of Staley by name.Spokesmen for both Bramson and Barclays declined to comment.Staley has tightened cost controls and cut jobs in the last few quarters in an effort to hit profitability targets. Bramson, meanwhile, has long argued that focusing on the corporate and investment bank (CIB) is a mistake. The activist, whose Sherborne Investors Management LP holds stock and derivatives worth about 5.5% of Barclays, tried and failed to get a board seat and revamp the bank’s strategy in May.“Markets activities consume so much of the company’s assets and management attention that, without addressing them, Barclays will be unable to fix the profitability issues that plague the CIB and the group as a whole,” Bramson wrote.The division posted a 4% fall in half-year income to 5.2 billion pounds ($6.4 billion) in August, hit by lower banking fees and a 6% decline in markets income. The bank eliminated 3,000 jobs in the second quarter and is offloading businesses including its automated options business in New York.The investment bank “is not self-sustaining and is structurally uncompetitive. This is not as a result of simplistic sound bites such as low volatility, Brexit, or having a headquarters outside of the USA, but rather because Barclays’ strategy misaligned with the modern CIB marketplace,” according to the activist.To contact the reporter on this story: Stefania Spezzati in London at sspezzati@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Ambereen Choudhury at achoudhury@bloomberg.net, Marion DakersFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
- Bloomberg
PG&E’s Busy Week Offers More Heat Than Light
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Ostensibly, a lot has happened with PG&E Corp. this week. It emerged that San Francisco Mayor London Breed had offered to buy the city’s power grid from the utility. Then, PG&E filed a reorganization plan to emerge from bankruptcy. This all seems pretty important.It hasn’t registered with the stock. Having had a day or so to absorb the late-Monday court filing and a couple of days to mull Mayor Breed’s offer, the stock trades around the $11 level it’s been at for a few weeks.That makes sense. San Francisco’s proposal is like someone showing up at your hospital bed and offering to buy the bed. The $2.5 billion being proposed wouldn’t even cover 10% of the high end of estimated liabilities PG&E faces. In return, the company would give up its network in the second-largest city (by population) in its service territory; a city that is also wealthy, growing and doesn’t face serious wildfire risk, making it relatively more valuable.Apart from the company, the bankruptcy court and PG&E’s claimants aren’t likely to be thrilled about this either. Labor isn’t. State regulators and politicians should also be wary, as removing San Francisco could leave the remaining PG&E with that delicious cocktail of higher risk premium and fewer resources (see this). If that buyout proposal looks DOA, PG&E’s reorganization plan looks more TBD. This proposes raising up to $14 billion in new equity mostly via a rights issue, with some existing shareholders attaching backstop commitments. In lieu of a detailed capital structure for the emerging entity, it came with a clutch of letters from major banks such as Barclays Plc and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expressing confidence they could arrange tens of billions of dollars of debt and equity finance for PG&E’s exit.The most controversial aspect, and the one that renders it all a bit moot at this point, is the plan’s cap on wildfire victims’ liabilities at $17.9 billion. As it was, CreditSights analysts were estimating liabilities north of $20 billion – and that was before the bankruptcy judge ruled last month that victims of the Tubbs Fire in 2017 could seek a jury trial to determine PG&E’s potential liability. Prior to this, a finding by CalFire, the state’s Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, that PG&E’s equipment wasn’t responsible for that fire led many to assume the company was off the hook. Now it could face potentially billions more in liability.Suffice to say, with the equity backstop contingent on the $17.9 billion cap and no more big fires, and the banks’ letters expressing confidence rather than binding commitment, the current plan looks more like a placeholder.Of course, this is a negotiation, and PG&E has to signal progress with a first draft of some sort to keep control of the process. But the cap on liabilities has drawn the anger of victims’ lawyers already. This matters in particular because PG&E’s filing still expresses the possibility of gaining legislative approval early next year to issue so-called Wildfire Victim Recovery Bonds. These would securitize a portion of future profits to fund payouts, thereby enabling shareholders to take only a temporary hit to value rather than permanent dilution from straight equity issuance. However, PG&E has failed once already on this front in Sacramento. It will be all too easy for opponents to fight the next push if they can point to a plan that covers bondholders and shields equity holders to a degree but caps payouts to victims.All of which means that, for all the noise, the balance of risk hasn’t changed. PG&E still faces pressure from rival plans, especially the big equity check being dangled by the Ad-Hoc Committee of Unsecured Bondholders. The uncertainty attached to the Tubbs trial and the potential for dilution loom large. Plus, this will all play out against the backdrop of California’s current wildfire season, with the northern part of the state displaying “above normal significant fire potential” this month.Back in late June, PG&E’s stock hit a summer peak of almost $24 on hopes that a mixture of state help and securitization would shield investors. As I wrote then, however, the reality is that PG&E needs a lot of new capital, and equity tends to take the hit in that situation. Three months on, the exact path out of Chapter 11, and what that will mean for its shares – which have fallen by more than half – remains murky. Having bought the rumor over the summer, there seems little rationale for buying the news now. To contact the author of this story: Liam Denning at ldenning1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Liam Denning is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy, mining and commodities. He previously was editor of the Wall Street Journal's Heard on the Street column and wrote for the Financial Times' Lex column. He was also an investment banker.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
- Bloomberg
California Senate Passes Bill Set to Transform Gig Economy
(Bloomberg) -- The California Senate passed a bill that could force Uber and other gig economy giants to reclassify their workers as employees. Such a change would secure labor protections for thousands of people across the state and deal a significant blow to companies that built multi-billion dollar businesses on independent contractors.Under the new law, Assembly Bill 5, people in California could generally only be considered contractors if the work they’re doing is outside the usual course of a company’s business. Companies like Uber Technologies Inc. and Lyft Inc., which rely on armies of drivers to service their customers, would likely fail that test without transforming how they do business. Employees are entitled to a minimum wage and overtime pay, neither of which is a common protection within the gig economy.Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat who’s seen as friendly to both labor and technology, has said he supported the bill, a signal that it may soon become law without a special exception for the gig economy. The State Assembly has already approved a version of the bill and it’s expected to pass the same legislation in a later vote.The cost could be significant and comes at a delicate moment for the two largest companies in the industry. Lyft and Uber are struggling to staunch accelerating losses and cratering stock prices. Just hours before the bill passed, Uber Chief Executive Dara Khosrowshahi said he was cutting more than 400 technical employees after eliminating a similar number of jobs earlier in the summer.Shares in Uber were down about 1% in New York Wednesday morning while Lyft was up less than 1%.“The State Senate made it clear: your business cannot game the system by misclassifying its workers,” Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez, the Democrat who authored the bill, said in a statement. “As lawmakers, we will not in good conscience allow free-riding businesses to continue to pass their own business costs onto taxpayers and workers. It’s our job to look out for working men and women, not Wall Street and their get-rich-quick IPOs.”Read more: Uber Has Bigger Problems to Worry About Than the D.C. ShutdownGiving employee status and benefits to workers in California would cost Uber and Lyft an additional $2,000 to $3,600 per driver annually, according to research from Barclays Plc and Macquarie Capital. That would be as much as $500 million for Uber in the state each year. California often sets the legislative tone for other states to emulate, and the costs could quickly add up if more follow suit.The largest companies in the gig economy have been trying unsuccessfully since last year to secure concessions that would forestall a reclassification of their workers. The companies appealed to state lawmakers to shield them from the new standard and have held talks with union leaders and the governor’s office.“We are now witnessing the dashing of the American dream,” Senator Jim Nielsen, a Republican, said on the Senate floor.Read more: Uber Makes Further Cuts to Its Staff as Losses Pile Up (1)Corporate efforts to secure a legislative deal may continue past the current legislative session, which ends this week. Meanwhile, gig companies are also setting up a fallback. Uber, Lyft and DoorDash Inc. each committed $30 million last month to potentially put the issue before voters as a 2020 ballot referendum.The California showdown has become the leading battleground in the U.S. debate over the rights of gig workers. Several Democratic presidential candidates endorsed the California bill and are backing proposals that would replicate the approach on a national scale.“The passage of this legislation could be a watershed in the reduction of inequality in society and the workplace,” said William Gould, Stanford University law professor and former National Labor Relations Board chairman. “Some of this depends upon the willingness of organized labor, plaintiffs lawyers and government to stand up and protest. On this, we must wait and see.”(Updates with shares in fifth paragraph)To contact the reporters on this story: Josh Eidelson in Palo Alto at jeidelson@bloomberg.net;Lizette Chapman in San Francisco at lchapman19@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Mark Milian at mmilian@bloomberg.net, ;Peter Elstrom at pelstrom@bloomberg.net, Edwin ChanFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
- Fool.co.uk
Forget Brexit! I think this could be an even bigger threat to the Barclays share price
This hidden threat could pile further pressure on Barclays plc (LON: BARC), says Harvey Jones.
- Bloomberg
WeWork Mystery: Who Owns 75% of Its Junk Bonds?
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- To get a sense of how the market feels about the day-to-day drama coming out of WeWork, investors have little choice but to turn to its bonds.After all, the company has no publicly traded shares — and, if the latest twist in its saga is to be believed, that might be the case for longer than anticipated. Executives of WeWork and its largest investor, SoftBank Group Corp., are discussing whether to shelve plans for an initial public offering, people with knowledge of the talks told Bloomberg News. On top of that, the office-rental company may rely on junk bonds for funding for the foreseeable future or even explore a whole-business securitization, a WeWork executive said, according to a person familiar with the matter.Not surprisingly, WeWork’s junk bonds are tumbling. They fell below 100 cents on the dollar on Tuesday for the first time since the company filed to go public last month, with both the number of trades and overall volume reaching the highest in about a month. While a dip below face value doesn’t inherently spell doom, it’s nevertheless a sign that the bad news is starting to take its toll on investors.But here’s the mystery: Who exactly are those investors?We know who holds about 25% of WeWork’s $669 million in high-yield debt due 2025 because Bloomberg aggregates data from the most recent public filings. So, for instance, Lord Abbett & Co. held about $43.8 million as of May 31, or about 6.5%. The second-largest holder is Allianz SE, which includes funds from Pacific Investment Management Co.; grouped together, it owns about $21 million, or a bit more than 3%. Three State Street Corp. exchange-traded funds hold a combined $9.6 million, or 1.44%. In the period through July 31, funds from TIAA-CREF and Ameriprise Financial Inc. pared back their exposure. Still, that’s far from a complete picture. Only knowing who owns 25% of a company’s bonds is minuscule, even for the high-yield market. WeWork makes up about 0.05% of the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index. Here’s a sampling of other debt with nearly identical weightings and comparable maturities, and how much of its ownership is public:Lamar Media Corp. bond maturing in 2026: 47% known Seven Generations Energy bond maturing in 2025: 72% known J2 Global bond maturing in 2025: 51% known Navient Corp. bond maturing in 2021: 57% known Antero Resources Corp. bond maturing in 2023: 67% known CVR Partners LP bond maturing in 2023: 64% knownSuffice it to say, bonds in the high-yield index with lower publicly reported ownership than WeWork are few and far between. So if active money managers, ETFs, pensions(1) and life insurers make up only a quarter of investors, who else is left? Hedge funds would be a likely place to start looking. WeWork’s bond matures in less than six years and offers a yield of more than 8%. (At the height of the rally last month, it yielded closer to 7%.) The Bloomberg Barclays high-yield index has a comparable average maturity of 5.76 years, but its yield is just 5.6%. There’s been no indication that SoftBank and its affiliates own any of the securities, but they do own about 29% of WeWork stock, which shows just how much the Japanese conglomerate has riding on the company’s success. Opportunistic investors appear to have jumped into WeWork’s bond at least twice this year. The bond soared after the company’s April 29 announcement that it filed paperwork confidentially with the Securities and Exchange Commission to hold an IPO and then again after it filed its S-1 prospectus in August. As I wrote in May, an IPO could give WeWork a cash injection that ought to cover interest for a while. It would also give bondholders a layer of protection in the capital structure because public shareholders would take the biggest hit if WeWork fizzles.These big investors, whoever they may be, can’t be feeling too comfortable right now, given the state of the IPO. As for We Co., the parent of WeWork, becoming a regular presence in the capital markets, I’ll just say this: It’s one thing to be Netflix Inc. — whose stock price has more than doubled since the start of 2017 — and tap the high-yield bond market again and again (its bonds maturing in 2026 have 73.5% public ownership). It’s quite another to be WeWork, given that its IPO range could wind up closer to $20 billion, compared with the $47 billion valuation it had earlier this year. There is no shortage of investors, analysts and commentators who see WeWork as the height of market folly. It’s a company with an unusual corporate structure and a business model that seems destined to implode when the economic cycle turns.So far, the bond market isn’t convinced that WeWork is about to crash and burn. That is, if anyone can trust trading among investors who are largely unknown.(1) The California Public Employees' Retirement System, or Calpers, held about $2.6 million of the bond as of June 30, data compiled by Bloomberg show. It's possible other pension funds don't disclose such precise figures.To contact the author of this story: Brian Chappatta at bchappatta1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Daniel Niemi at dniemi1@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Brian Chappatta is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering debt markets. He previously covered bonds for Bloomberg News. He is also a CFA charterholder.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
- Fool.co.uk
Thinking of buying the Barclays share price? You need to read this first
At current prices, Barclays plc (LON: BARC) might appear too good to be true. Spoiler alert: it is. Royston Wild explains why he thinks you should avoid it like a tropical disease.
- Bloomberg
Barclays Joins Deutsche Bank in Fixed-Income Trading Cuts
(Bloomberg) -- Barclays Plc is making cuts to its Japanese fixed income business as Chief Executive Officer Jes Staley slashes costs globally to counter weak profits at its markets unit.The British bank is parting ways with several salespeople and traders in Tokyo, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named discussing information that isn’t public. The reductions were made in the last week, the people said.Barclays joins Societe Generale SA and Deutsche Bank AG in cutting their fixed income divisions, which are in the business of trading bonds. Banks are contending with a decade of low and negative rates, eroding trading profits -- and with no end in sight as the European Central Bank remains in easing mode. Japan has been in a similar environment for years. Deutsche Bank moved to eliminate workers in high-yield trading last week, while SocGen has focused the deep cuts to its markets division in fixed income.Barclays’s corporate and investment bank posted a 4% fall in half-year income to 5.2 billion pounds ($6.4 billion) in August, hit by lower banking fees and a 6% decline in markets income. Operating expenses for the unit were stable at 3.6 billion pounds.Staley has faced criticism from some shareholders over the performance of the investment bank, which is a centerpiece of his strategy. The American-born CEO is fending off activist investor Edward Bramson, who wants to see the investment bank shrink, by keeping a tighter control on expenses. The bank eliminated 3,000 jobs in the second quarter and is offloading businesses including its automated options business in New York.A Barclays spokeswoman declined to comment on the Tokyo cuts.(Adds detail of other banks cutting jobs in third paragraph.)To contact the reporters on this story: Viren Vaghela in London at vvaghela1@bloomberg.net;Harry Wilson in London at hwilson57@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Ambereen Choudhury at achoudhury@bloomberg.net, Marion DakersFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
- Business Wire
Barclays announces the launch of iPath ® Series B Carbon ETNs (Ticker: GRN)
Barclays Bank PLC (“Barclays”) announced today the launch of the iPath® Series B Carbon ETNs (Ticker: GRN). The ETNs will track the performance of Barclays Global Carbon II TR USD Index (Ticker: BXIIGC2T). The New ETNs are expected to begin trading on the NYSE Arca exchange on September 10, 2019.
- Reuters - UK Focus
UPDATE 2-JD Sports leads FTSE 100 higher, rate cut hopes support
London's FTSE 100 overcame early losses to close higher on Tuesday as hopes of imminent interest rate cuts from major central banks buoyed sentiment, while JD Sports jumped to an all-time high on upbeat results. The blue-chip index added 0.4%, with JD Sports gaining 8.8% after its gym clothing and premium-branded fashion helped it post higher profit and offset UK retail sector gloom. The FTSE 250 rose 0.3%, helped in part by a nearly 13% surge in Cairn Energy as strong half-year results led to a production target upgrade.
- Stockopedia
Barclays plc: a FTSE dividend share for your ISA?
Some of the very best UK-listed companies can be found on the FTSE 350. These companies have often been paying dividends for a very long time, making them prim8230;
- Reuters - UK Focus
LIVE MARKETS-What we're watching at the open
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Thyagaraju Adinarayan. Stock futures are pointing to a flat to slightly negative open as investors stick to the sidelines ahead of the ECB's monetary policy meeting on Thursday, where the central bank is widely expected to come up with a string of easing measures. All the major stock futures are down 0.1%.
- Reuters - UK Focus
British banks seek tweaks to accountability rules
Britain's new system of banker accountability has led to a "tangible" improvement in culture but modest changes are still needed, UK Finance said on Tuesday. The trade body for banks in Britain published the sector's first major appraisal of the senior managers and certification regime (SMCR) introduced in 2016 as part of reforms implemented after the 2007-09 financial crisis that left taxpayers to bail out lenders while few individual bankers faced punishment. SMCR makes it easier for regulators to pinpoint blame when things go wrong.
- Bloomberg
Relief Rallies Are Neither Long Nor Fulfilling
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- After posting the biggest back-to-back weekly advance since early June for a total gain of 4.58%, the rally in the S&P 500 Index stalled as a new week dawned. Perhaps it’s because the increases were more about things not getting any worse, rather than any new reason for optimism about such fundamentals as economic growth, earnings and U.S.-China trade relations. The fact is, the risks around all three of those things aren’t going away anytime soon, as traders realized Monday.The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow index – which attempts to gauge economic growth in real time – took another leg lower, falling to a below-trend rate of 1.467%. On the geopolitical front, the U.S. appears no closer to reaching a trade agreement with China, with the two sides only agreeing to talks next month in an effort to set up the parameters for further discussions. “Will there be a deal between China and the U.S.? I have my doubts,” Steve Eisman, the Neuberger Berman Group money manager whose bets against the housing market before the financial crisis were chronicled in Michael Lewis’s 2010 book “The Big Short,” said Monday on Bloomberg TV. “My impression is that China is not backing down on anything,” so to get a deal “Trump basically has to give in.” And when it comes to earnings, strategists are quickly downgrading their forecasts. The latest to do so is LPL Financial Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch, Citing the escalating trade war, he cut his 2019 earnings-per-share forecast for the S&P 500 to $165 from a prior estimate of $170, representing a paltry 2% to 3% growth rate for the year. “Slower economic growth hampers revenue, while paying tariffs and dealing with supply chain disruptions hurt profit margins,” Lynch wrote in a research note. “In addition, business uncertainty around future trade actions weighs on capital investments, which limits opportunities for companies to grow revenue, particularly industrial and technology companies, and caps gains in productivity” that “could boost profit margin.”A MILE WIDE AND AN INCH DEEPThe upside - if there is one – to the recent “correction” in the global government bond market is that it has shrunk the universe of debt with negative yields pretty significantly, to $15.6 trillion as of Friday from a peak of just over $17 trillion on Aug. 29. For those readers without calculators, that amounts to $1.4 trillion. This is good news for two reasons. The first is that the rapidly expanding universe of negative-yielding debt has raised concern that it could pose a systemic risk to the global financial system. After all, getting paid to borrow money isn’t natural. So, any decrease is a positive. The second is that the recent move shows it doesn’t take much of a market move to turn negative-yielding bonds into positive-yielding ones, mainly because those negative yields are relatively slim at an average of minus 0.38%, according to the Bloomberg Barclays indexes. That compares with an average of 1.23% for the global bond market. Holding a bond – especially a government bond – with a yield below zero percent isn’t much different than paying a bank for a safe deposit box to hold one’s valuables. You might not make any money, but you know the money you do have is safe, and paying 38 basis point for that peace of mind doesn’t seem too onerous in today’s environment.OIL JOINS THE PARTYMany riskier assets such as equities have broken through the top end of their recent trading range in a sign of optimism. Oil, though, was conspicuous by its absence. That changed on Monday as West Texas Intermediate crude futures surged as much as $1.64, or 2.90%, to $58.16 a barrel, the highest since July 31 on a closing basis. The move in crude had nothing to do with rising demand eroding a glut of supply and ratifying the idea seen in equities that perhaps the broader economy isn’t as bad as envisioned. Instead, the surge higher was all about an attempt by OPEC and its allies to reassert their control over the global oil market. That was demonstrated in comments by newly-appointed Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, who said there won’t be radical change in the policy of the group referred to OPEC+. The group, which includes Russia, has cut crude production this year to prevent a glut and shore up prices. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates energy minister promised a push to get all members committed to curbs, but said there’s no recommendation to make deeper reductions, according to Bloomberg News Sheela Tobben. The answer to the question of whether the global economy is strong enough to withstand higher prices for such key raw materials as oil may soon be answered.REVERSING, BUT IN A GOOD WAYNo list of the many risks confronting the global economy and markets would be complete without mentioning a strong dollar getting stronger and a collapsing British pound. But recent moves in the currency market are starting to alleviate some of those concerns. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has fallen for five straight days, its longest slump since June and mitigating some of the pressure on big, U.S. multinational exporters. It’s probably no coincidence that the S&P 500 Index jumped 1.79% last week as the dollar fell. S&P Global Ratings figures that 30% of the revenue of S&P 500 companies comes from outside the U.S. The Bloomberg British Pound Index jumped on Monday to its highest since July 26, bringing its gain to 3.34% since closing at a low for the year on Aug. 9. The move higher in sterling is a reflection of growing speculation that the U.K. will avoid crashing out of the European Union at the end of October without an exit deal that would potentially throw the global economy and markets into turmoil. The latest bit of optimism comes with Prime Minister Boris Johnson seemingly softening his stance on leaving the EU on Oct. 31 with our without a deal. There’s also the latest data showing the U.K. economy is holding up, growing at its fastest pace in six months in July. At least to currency traders, the world is looking like a less dangerous place, with the JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index posting its biggest four-day decline since August 2011.THE LURE OF EMERGING MARKETS The weakness in the dollar has given emerging markets a boost, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index of equities rising on Monday to its highest level since Aug. 1. That’s because every time the greenback lurches higher, there are doubts that emerging-market borrowers will have the ability repay the trillions of dollar-denominated debt taken out in recent years. In a sign of confidence, investors have added money to exchange-traded funds that buy emerging-market stocks and bonds for two straight weeks. Inflows to U.S.-listed emerging-market ETFs that invest across developing nations as well as those that target specific countries totaled $74.9 million in the week ended Sept. 6, compared with gains of $69.4 million in the previous week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Inflows total $381.9 million this year, meaning the past two weeks accounted for large chunk, or 38%, of all money that have poured into these funds in 2019. Now, many investors are saying that further gains in emerging-market assets may depend on what the European Central Bank does at its monetary policy meeting Thursday. A dovish decision that includes further monetary stimulus would likely keep demand for emerging-market assets strong. “The ECB meeting on Thursday will be crucial for setting the tone of sentiment in emerging markets,” Paul Greer, a London-based money manager at Fidelity International, whose emerging-market debt fund has outperformed 97% of peers this year, told Bloomberg News.TEA LEAVESThe best word to describe sentiment among small U.S. business owners may be “sticky.” Despite evidence of a slowing economy, the National Federation of Independent Business’s monthly index of sentiment among this group has risen in five of the past six months. At a reading of 104.7 in July, the gauge is closer to its record high of 108.8 in August 2018 than its average of 98.3 since 1975. But could the report for August due to be released on Tuesday finally show that confidence is starting to wane? Unlikely, according to economists, who expect only a slight pullback to 103.5, which would still be higher than all but two others months this year. But as Bloomberg Economics points out, anecdotal evidence, such as respondents’ comments in the August non-manufacturing Institute for Supply Management survey, suggests that existing trade-war tariffs “are affecting companies’ costs, particularly in the accommodation, food services and construction sectors; many small businesses are concentrated in these industries. As such, the re-escalation of trade tensions could drive small-business sentiment down.”DON’T MISSFed and ECB Are Stuck in a Shrinking Corner: Mohamed A. El-ErianMario Draghi Is Breaking Out the Bazooka Again: Marcus AshworthA Stronger Yuan Is Manna for Emerging Markets: John AuthersThe World's Oil Glut Is Much Worse Than It Looks: Julian LeeFracking Is the Bridge to a Fully Renewable Future: Noah SmithTo contact the author of this story: Robert Burgess at bburgess@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Beth Williams at bewilliams@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Robert Burgess is an editor for Bloomberg Opinion. He is the former global executive editor in charge of financial markets for Bloomberg News. As managing editor, he led the company’s news coverage of credit markets during the global financial crisis.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
- Yahoo Finance UK
Barclays takes £1.6bn hit as banks surprised by PPI deadline surge
UK's banking sector has significantly underestimated the amount of PPI claims it would receive around the 29 August deadline for historic claims.
- Reuters - UK Focus
Barclays increases PPI provisions by up to 1.6 bln stg
- Yahoo Finance UK
Lloyds latest to be surprised by PPI deadline with £1.8bn claims surge
Lloyds is cancelling its share buyback after 'a significant spike' in PPI claims around the August deadline.
