CBK.DE - Commerzbank AG

Oil Climbs to Level Last Seen After Saudi Attacks in September

(Bloomberg) -- Oil settled above $60 a barrel for the first time since missile strikes on Saudi Arabia sparked a record price surge three months ago.Futures closed 1.5% higher in New York on Friday, buoyed by a partial truce in the U.S.-China trade war that has imperiled demand all year. Chinese officials said the countries agreed to hold off on a new round of tariffs set to go into effect in a matter of days. The bullish momentum was undermined when U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted that existing levies will remain in effect.“The market has just priced in this outcome to a certain extent already,” Daniel Ghali, a TD Securities commodity strategist, said by phone. “The hope is that a trade deal will translate into more demand.”Until Friday’s session, crude was poised to end the week little changed after surging more than 7% last week on the strength of a surprise OPEC supply cut. Money managers boosted bullish bets on crude by the most in more than three years in the days before the trade deal was struck.See also: Commodities Enjoy Best Week in 5 Months as Trade Deal Struck“Risk appetite among financial investors is now likely to remain high thanks to the deal between the U.S. and China,” said Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. Yet “the oil market risks facing a massive oversupply and a pronounced inventory build, at least in the first half of the year.”West Texas Intermediate for January delivery rose 89 cents to settle at $60.07 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent for February settlement advanced $1.02 to $65.22 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange. The global benchmark settled at a $5.24 premium to WTI for the same month.(An earlier version corrected the day in second paragraph)\--With assistance from Catherine Ngai.To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Tuttle in Calgary at rtuttle@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: David Marino at dmarino4@bloomberg.net, Joe CarrollFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

Palladium Barrels Toward $2,000 as Red-Hot Rally Continues

(Bloomberg) -- Palladium set its sights on a record $2,000 an ounce, with the metal’s blistering rally showing no sign yet of cooling off.Prices climbed for an unprecedented 16th day after signs of a breakthrough in the U.S.-China trade talks, fueling hopes for a rebound in the auto industry, palladium’s biggest consumer. The metal that reached another record surged this week as mining disruptions in major producer South Africa threatened to tighten a market already hobbled by a persistent deficit.“We’re already in uncharted territory,” said Daniel Briesemann, a Commerzbank AG analyst. “The $2,000 mark seems to be a very attractive target to overcome. We also think some speculative financial investors may be pushing the price higher.”Spot palladium climbed as much as 2.1% to $1,982.01 an ounce, before trading at $1,969 at 10:25 a.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg generic pricing.The metal has gained more than 50% this year even as global car sales remain weak. Citigroup Inc. forecast prices could hit $2,500 next year.Tight supplies, which have trailed demand since at least 2012, mean that autocatalyst makers are scrambling to get hold of the metal to meet stricter pollution rules.“The physiological $2,000 level now acts as such a magnet to the market,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. “The strong momentum driven by tight fundamentals was given a further jolt on news that a phase-one trade deal has been reached.”South Africa, the world’s No. 2 palladium producer, expanded rolling blackouts to a record level earlier this week, disrupting miners’ operations. The situation has eased and most operations have returned to normal, although the country continues to experience power cuts.Still, given the relatively small size of the market, a pullback in palladium prices could be sharp, said ABN Amro Bank NV strategist Georgette Boele.“What goes exponentially up can eventually also drop like that,” she said. “It will not defy gravity forever.”Beijing and Washington have agreed on the text of a phase one trade deal, which will see the removal of tariffs on Chinese goods in stages, Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen said. That averts the Dec. 15 introduction of a new wave of U.S. tariffs.Gold and silver swung between gains and losses, while platinum declined. The metal used in autocatalysts mainly for diesel-fueled vehicles will probably remain in surplus, Morgan Stanley said this week.The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reached the lowest since July.\--With assistance from Justina Vasquez.To contact the reporters on this story: Ranjeetha Pakiam in Singapore at rpakiam@bloomberg.net;Elena Mazneva in London at emazneva@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Phoebe Sedgman at psedgman2@bloomberg.net, ;Lynn Thomasson at lthomasson@bloomberg.net, Liezel HillFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

China Exports Unexpectedly Decline in November, Imports Rise

(Bloomberg) -- Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world embroiled in trade wars. Sign up here. China’s exports unexpectedly fell in November as global demand waned and a deal with the U.S. continued to elude negotiators, while imports rebounded.Exports dropped 1.1% in dollar terms in November from a year earlier, while imports rose 0.3%, the customs administration said Sunday. That left a trade surplus of $38.73 billion for the month. Economists had forecast that exports would rise 0.8% while imports would drop by 1.4%.Key InsightsThe numbers are a bit surprising as exports unexpectedly fell while imports returned to growth, said Zhou Hao, senior economist at Commerzbank AG in Singapore. Overall these are still soft numbers -- there might be some further import improvement in December due to a favorable comparison with low numbers last year, but in general there is hardly a meaningful improvement in sight.Imports from the U.S. rose for the first time since August last year, while exports continued their slide for a 12th month, dropping 23%. However, the value of imports in 2018 was depressed by the trade war so the increase this year is off a low base.Chinese and U.S. negotiators are moving closer to an agreement despite sharp rhetoric and diplomatic spats over Xinjiang and Hong Kong. U.S. negotiators expect a phase one deal to be completed before the Dec. 15 deadline when new American tariffs on Chinese goods are scheduled to take effect, according to people familiar with the matter.Senior Chinese officials will meet in coming days to set economic policy for next year, including the growth target and plans for monetary and fiscal settings.The soft rebound in imports shows the weakness of the domestic economy. The government has brought forward the sale of some debt so it can start spending the money as early as possible next year, but People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang indicated that the nation’s monetary policy will continue to refrain from large-scale easing steps.Get More“If a phase one trade deal is struck and there is no further escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions, the drag on China’s exports from higher U.S. tariffs will likely ease through 2020. Domestic business and consumer sentiment will also improve slightly, supporting investment and consumption, although trade-related uncertainty will likely remain elevated in the short term,” Sylvia Sheng, global multi-asset strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in Hong Kong, wrote in a recent note.(Updates with deck headlines, economist’s comment, data on bilateral China-U.S. trade)\--With assistance from Tomoko Sato.To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Miao Han in Beijing at mhan22@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeffrey Black at jblack25@bloomberg.net, James Mayger, Keith GosmanFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

Commerzbank managers keeping staff in dark on overhaul, union says

Commerzbank managers are keeping employees in the dark about the German lender's overhaul plans, a union representative said on Wednesday. The state-backed bank earlier this year announced plans to restructure after a failed merger attempt with Deutsche Bank .

Oil Rises on Signs of Trade-Talks Optimism, Key Hub Drop

(Bloomberg) -- Oil rose on signs of progress in trade talks between the U.S. and China.Futures were little changed in New York after settling 0.7% higher Tuesday. Washington and Beijing “reached consensus on properly resolving relevant issues” to pursue a “phase one” trade deal during a phone call on Tuesday, China’s Ministry of Commerce said. The American Petroleum Institute reported that U.S. stockpiles at a key hub fell 516,000 barrels last week, according to people familiar.“The general sense is that the economy is doing good,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “There is a little bit of movement toward the U.S.-China trade deal, but the market is reflecting the strength we see in stocks and overall optimism.”Crude has been rising since early October on the thaw in trade hostilities between the world’s two largest economies, although investors are becoming increasingly fatigued over how long the negotiations are taking. Traders are also concerned that OPEC and its allies seem unwilling to cut production further when they meet next week, despite signs of a renewed surplus in early 2020.“The optimism that the trade conflict will at least ease somewhat is currently preventing prices from falling,” said Carsten Fritsch, an analyst with Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt.West Texas Intermediate for January delivery traded at $58.28 at 4:42pm after rising 40 cents to settle at $58.41 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.Brent for January settlement climbed 62 cents to end the session at $64.27 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange. The global benchmark traded at a $5.86 premium to WTI.The industry-funded API also reported that US. crude supplies rose by 3.64 million barrels. Meanwhile gasoline inventories grew 4.38 million barrels and distillate inventories fell by 665,000 barrels.Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said nationwide inventories probably fell by 878,000 barrels. That would still be near the highest level since July as the country’s oil output keeps rising.“Optimism linked to the U.S. Chinese trade discussions, the likely extension of OPEC+ agreement and increased utilization rates should provide support to crude structure,” said Tom Finlon, director of Energy Analytics Group Ltd in Wellington, Florida.To contact the reporter on this story: Jacquelyn Melinek in New York at jmelinek@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: David Marino at dmarino4@bloomberg.net, Mike Jeffers, Catherine TraywickFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

Oil Surges as Key U.S. Storage Hub Shows Biggest Draw in Months

(Bloomberg) -- Oil jumps the most since the first of the month as American crude stockpiles at a key storage hub shrank by the most since August.Futures rose 3.4% in New York, the biggest gain since Nov. 1. The Energy Information Administration reported that crude supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, declined by 2.3 million barrels, the biggest draw in three months. Nationwide crude inventories rose 1.38 million barrels, less than reported by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday.There is some unrest in the market that could be supporting prices, said Ashley Petersen, oil market analyst at Stratas Advisors LLC. “But that doesn’t change the fundamental picture that was bringing down prices over the past two weeks, concerns about future demand and supply,” she said. “So that makes the question: ‘How long can this rally last?’”Although nationwide crude stockpiles rose, the size of the build was smaller than the volume of crude released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Combined crude and products inventories fell by 6.93 million barrels.“The Cushing draw is pushing WTI prices higher for sure,” said Matt Sallee, portfolio manager at Tortoise, a Kansas firm that oversees more than $21 billion in assets. “We’ve seen some interruption from the Canadian supply, but it’s hard to say in any given week, but I think that’s what’s supporting WTI prices.”West Texas Intermediate for December delivery, which expires Wednesday, rose $1.90 to settle at $57.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The more-active January contract increased $1.66 to end the session at $57.01.Brent for January settlement gained $1.49 to close at $62.40 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange. The global benchmark crude traded at a $5.39 premium to WTI for the same month.The EIA report also showed gasoline inventories rose 1.76 million barrels while distillate supplies fell 974,000 barrels. Crude production remained strong at a record level of 12.8 million barrels a day for the second week in a row.To contact the reporter on this story: Jacquelyn Melinek in New York at jmelinek@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: David Marino at dmarino4@bloomberg.net, Catherine Traywick, Mike JeffersFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

Poland's PZU to analyse potential mBank synergies

Negative rates are hurting savers and the banks that handle their money

Lessons from Germany as interest rates remain below 0%.

Commerzbank warns of profit drop for 2019

Commerzbank AG on Thursday said its 2019 profit would be lower than last year, partly due to the impact of euro zone monetary policy that has pressured margins. The state-backed bank, which is restructuring after a failed merger attempt with Deutsche Bank , also cited trade conflicts and expectations for a higher tax rate in the fourth quarter for the profit downgrade. "We deliberately set long-term success above short-term return targets," Chief Executive Officer Martin Zielke said.

Analyst Tears Up New Apple AirPods to Prove Their Power Source

(Bloomberg) -- A Commerzbank AG analyst has gone to great lengths to prove that Apple Inc.’s latest AirPods Pro earbuds are powered by batteries made by German manufacturer Varta AG.Stephan Klepp visited his local Apple store and bought a pair of the $249 earphones, before dismantling them to find a Varta lithium-ion micro-battery inside, he wrote in a note.“Overall, our tear-down puts the speculation around Apple ultimately to rest,” Klepp said in his report, which included pictures of the dissected device and its power source.Varta and Apple declined to comment.Varta shares have risen to the highest since being re-listed in 2017 on speculation that Apple, the market leader for wireless earbud headphones, may be behind numerous capacity increases announced by the German manufacturer. To date, neither company has confirmed the relationship.Klepp has a buy recommendation on Varta, whose shares rose 1.8% in late Frankfurt trading, extending gains after soaring more than 7% in each of the previous two sessions.To contact the reporter on this story: Richard Weiss in Frankfurt at rweiss5@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Daniel Schaefer at dschaefer36@bloomberg.net, Paul JarvisFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

Commerzbank sounds out potential mBank buyers as lenders hire advisors - sources

WARSAW/FRANKFURT (Germany) (Reuters) - Commerzbank is sounding out potential buyers of its stake in Polish lender mBank ahead of a formal sale process which is expected to launch in coming months, people familiar with the matter said. MBank has hired JPMorgan as an advisor, while Goldman Sachs is advising Commerzbank, two sources said. Germany's second-largest lender, which is seeking funds to finance its recently announced restructuring, said in September its supervisory board had approved plans to sell the 69.3% stake in mBank, worth about $2.65 billion.

Osram Takeover Battle Set for Next Round After AMS Bid Setback

(Bloomberg) -- The battle for control of Osram Licht AG is set to enter a new round after Austria’s AMS AG vowed to keep fighting after a sweetened 4 billion euro ($4.4 billion) offer failed.AMS, a supplier to Apple Inc., will seek a regulator nod to raise its 19.99% stake in Osram. As the biggest shareholder in the German lighting maker, AMS’s approval has become key for any would-be rival bidder. Osram has said private equity investors Bain Capital and Advent International are inspecting its books with a plan to make an offer.“We doubt private equity will launch a superior bid given AMS has built up a 19.99% stake in the meantime,” Commerzbank said in a note. “While we cannot rule out that AMS might make another push, timing is yet unclear, so we attach a greater likelihood to a potential cooperation only.”German takeover law doesn’t allow a new bid within one year unless the target gives its consent, as well as stipulating that an offer needs to be made if an investor crosses a 30% ownership threshold. AMS’s pursuit took a setback Friday, when it announced its offer failed to attract enough support from shareholders. Osram investors had tendered only 51.6% of their shares, short of a 62.5% threshold.Osram fell as much as 4.5% to 39 euros, the most in two months, while shares of AMS declined as much as 5.8%.AMS’s failed bid extends a period of protracted uncertainty for Osram, which emerged as a takeover target last year after warning trade friction and a cooling of the car industry had clouded the outlook for 2019. The former division of Siemens AG gets about half of its revenue from the automotive sector. Subsequent profit warnings further eroded investor confidence, sending shares tumbling until the takeover battle took hold.Osram confirmed talks with Bain and Carlyle, which was later replaced by Advent, in February after they were first reported by Bloomberg News. A bidding war broke out in July when AMS lobbed a higher offer. The Austrian company has drawn criticism from Osram unions and employee representatives on the board, as well as management due to concerns about promised synergies as well as the deal’s financing.Following the months-long takeover battle against private equity suitors, AMS said the combination remains compelling and pledged to continue to “explore strategic options” for a takeover. Bain and Advent are inspecting Osram’s books “with a view to submitting an offer,” Osram said in a separate statement.AMS, a supplier of facial recognition technology for Apple’s iPhone, has said it would invest in the company’s Regensburg, Germany site that makes high-tech chip components, but would sell the digital division that makes lighting controls, stage and theater lights.Century-old Osram, based in Munich, started out making light bulbs, pivoting in recent years under Chief Executive Officer Olaf Berlien to products like iris scanners and infrared emitters. The refocus was contentious, leading to a boardroom clash over strategy and a public spat with Siemens before the German engineering giant sold down its stake.To contact the reporter on this story: Oliver Sachgau in Munich at osachgau@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Tara Patel at tpatel2@bloomberg.net, Elisabeth Behrmann, Jennifer RyanFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.