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Chiasma, Inc. (CHMA)
NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real-time price. Currency in USD
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I have my full faith and trust in Chiasma. They will succeed today.
Old Man Logan
So much to look forward to in the next few months:
1. Data to support the launch of Mycappsa outside the US
2. The potential to use Mycappsa in other indications like neuroendocrine tumors
3. News about other drugs being converted to pill form using the TPE plaform. (CEO confirmed they are doing early work on a number of molecules...)
You can have my shares for $15-$20/share.
There will be no buyout in the immediate future. The whole reason the stock tanked after approval is because it was apparent they were going to market the drug themselves with no plans for a buyout. They should have had the entire marketing structure in place after the approval and not been hiring after the approval by the way. Maybe there will be one in a year or two if they can prove this is a good revenue generator.
Hi all ,
I wanted to share my calculation and ask for advice or correction from more experienced people here.
As for what I understand $CHMA was purchased by $AMYT based on the announcement today.
Every CHMA stock will be converted to AMYT stock at a ration of 1:0.396 , hence every 5 CHMA stock will grant their owner 2 AMYT stocks.
this process based on my understanding diluted AMYT stock price for the short term. hopefully the purchase will yield profits in the future but this is a gamble for the long run .
for now there are 41.79M outstanding CHMA shares , that by ration of 0.396 will become 16.54M AYMT share.
currently, AYMT has 35.88M shares outstanding , and in the end of the purchase will have 52.42M shares.
35.88/52.42 = 0.6844
hence the AYMT stock should be diluted around 32% for the short term.
taking its value to be 13.5 based on last 3 months (pretty high but lets be optimistic) , the new value after dilution should be :
13.5*0.68= 9.18$ a share.
assuming the real value of AYMT did not change , not by assets or anything else.
this is only math wise.
is it right by far ?
other considerations :
a) CLAIM (cons) - The value might be lower than 9.18$ for the short term :
As CHMA still not FDA approved, more money will need to be spent before any profit will come (at least 1-2 years) , hence the expenses grow at start which will drive the share price down at next reports.
b) CLAIM (pro) - the price will be higher than 9.18$ , my estimate 10-11$ a share as the optimism is around, purchase is considered a good thing, to grow the business.... and this will translate into share price regardless of book value or with taking into account future revenues, at least at the short term.
I cant see any justification not to sell my AMYT share now and buy them back again in 3 months time.
any advice , correction to the above ?
pls correct my logic if you think otherwise.
Once this company announces the next candidate for use in it's TPE platform technology, the share price will soar. This could happen at any time and may be mentioned during the March 4th earning's report.
From their website:
TPE® technology induces the expansion of seals or tight junctions made up of proteins within the lining of the small intestine. TPE® allows therapies to enter the bloodstream while maintaining the natural defense mechanism that excludes toxins, bacteria and viruses. Once in the small intestine, the coated capsule dissolves and releases the TPE® formulation.
In all chronic toxicology and clinical trials of encapsulated TPE®, there have been no TPE®-related safety signals or formulation-related adverse events 1,2. The only adverse events identified in clinical trials to date were associated with the side-effects of the study drug itself and the underlying disease.
In addition to employing TPE® to develop its first FDA-approved drug, Chiasma looks forward to identifying additional indications and potentially applying its TPE® technology to benefit patients in need of oral therapeutic options.
This company, Chiasma Inc. (Nasdaq: CHMA), is a leader in the biopharmaceutical world. Right now, Chiasma develops drugs used to treat acromegaly and other hormonal disorders for distribution throughout the U.S.
Acromegaly, for example, is a disorder that can result in enlarged hands, feet and internal organs. But thanks to one of Chiasma’s groundbreaking drugs, Mycapssa, the company is on track to provide those with acromegaly with a new alternative way to treat the disorder.
The drug was just approved by FDA, and the company stands to meet an impressive 86% demand for a new way to treat acromaegaly.
By 2023, Chiasma’s estimating that its revenue will increase to $164 million. That’s a massive 9,529% increase from 2020’s $2 million projection.
Current market cap is at around $175 million, and through the most recent dilution of about 17.5 million additional shares at $4 they have rasied $70 million giving them about $110 million cash with the $40 million they already had at the end of Q2 (give or take a couple of millions), they now have the cash needed to launch their sales for Mycapssa. The market cap should at the minimum double by end of the year to $350 million or a stock price of about $9-$10/shr. (if not more). All my humble opinion of course do your own research and add up the numbers and see if you come to the same conclusion as I have.
This is a "Shelf Offering" not a simple Offering that causes the PPS to bleed for the next 3 days while MGMT. sells New printed shares that steals the value of your stock thur dilution.
The shelf offerings will hang over the stock everyday until they use it and they always use it.
In the SEC Filing dated 3/28 they also state ther may be another offering after this one...…..
You may experience future dilution as a result of future equity offerings.
In order to raise additional capital, we may in the future offer additional shares of our common stock or other securities convertible into or exchangeable for our common stock at prices that may not be the same as the price per share in this offering. We may sell shares or other securities in any other offering at a price per share that is less than the price per share paid by investors in this offering, and investors purchasing shares or other securities in the future could have rights superior to those of existing stockholders. The price per share at which we sell additional shares of our common stock, or securities convertible or exchangeable into common stock, in future transactions may be higher or lower than the price per share paid by investors in this offering.
Sales of a substantial number of shares of our common stock in the public market after this offering could cause our stock price to fall.
Sales of a substantial number of shares of our common stock in the public market or the perception that these sales might occur could depress the market price of our common stock and could impair our ability to raise capital through the sale of additional equity securities. We are unable to predict the effect that sales may have on
Table of Contents
the prevailing market price of our common stock. In addition, the sale of substantial amounts of our common stock could adversely impact the price of our common stock. As of December 31, 2018, 24,456,120 shares of our common stock were outstanding. The sale, or the availability for sale, of a large number of shares of our common stock in the public market could cause the price of our common stock to decline.
The trading price of the shares of our common stock could be highly volatile, and purchasers of our common stock could incur substantial losses.
The market price for our common stock could be highly volatile and could continue to be subject to wide fluctuations in response to various factors. The market price for our common stock has varied between a high price of $7.19 on March 14, 2019 and a low price of $1.10 on August 10, 2018 in the twelve-month period ending on March 22, 2019. This volatility may affect the price at which you could sell the shares of our common stock, and the sale of substantial amounts of our common stock could adversely affect the price of our common stock. Our stock price is likely to continue to be volatile and subject to significant price and volume fluctuations in response to market and other factors, including those described, and incorporated by reference, in this “Risk Factors” section.
As a result, you may not be able to sell your shares of common stock at or above the price at which you purchase them. In addition, the stock market in general, and the Nasdaq Global Select Market and the stock of biotechnology and emerging pharmaceutical companies in particular, have experienced extreme price and volume fluctuations that have often been unrelated or disproportionate to the operating performance of these companies. Broad market and industry factors may negatively affect the market price of our common stock, regardless of our actual operating performance.
Sorry I got out this morning and took my lost. This is only going to get worse for several days , maybe weeks.
Good Luck, I hate to see anybody lose money.
The data from MPOWERED showed that MYCAPSSA improved clinical symptoms and other patient-reported outcomes compared to long-acting injectable somatostatin receptor ligands (iSRLs) in patients with acromegaly. In addition, MYCAPSSA met the pre-specified non-inferiority margin compared to long-acting iSRLs in maintenance of biochemical response.
Stock will double or get bought out before. They will be profitable in 2021 already with the US market alone and now bring on EU next year
Company gave us good news can’t complain they deliver ...but market and shorts 🩳 freaking out paper handed traders ...just don’t forget price target $10+ . Stay strong 💪
EVOK recently had a halt, pending news about their approval. When trading resumed, it went up to around $5. The main difference between then and now is that there was a listed time and date for resuming trading for EVOK, but there is no time or date for trading to start again for CHMA.
Hopefully it is good news.
This is a high risk high reward stock. They are nt focused on revenue now. Its all about investment and research. Once a drug gets approved it will be over 20
In the past few months, Chiasma has more than doubled it's work force, going from 18 employees to 49 with 2 positions yet to be filled. I think that's a good indicator of progress, and what the company is expecting.
Looks good, still on track for profits 2023. - Buyout will happen before that though IMHO.
Investors are starting to take notice. Volumes are 4-5x the average in the past two days.
If you ever thought stock manipulation by market makers and a few with a bit of money power is a myth, then just study CHMA to prove how wrong you have been...
The stock always or at least most often indicates a pre market price of about 4 to 6% higher than a he close then 5 minutes into the open out of no where and with just a few shares as volume it drops by 3 to 4%to below it had closed the previous day... a quick money made by those who truly have a grip on the stock..
Positive Data For Mycapssa From Phase 3 Trial Mpowered For The Maintenance Treatment Of Acromegaly.....let’s go 🚀🚀🚀
For all new to this — Crinetics won’t have drug on market until 2024 at earliest. At current rate, CHMA will have 2.4k pts by then. Drug is 70k/yr, so that’s 168M/yr and current market cap is around 200M. I’d guess they add patients twice as fast as that post-COVID, and they will also launch in EU well before competition.
Under the radar stock that seems to be getting it’s due, beginning the last month or so. New highs. Volume seems to be on steady upswing.
This stock should be way higher, need to spread the word, should be trading over 10 plus...
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