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Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation (CHMI)
NYSE - Nasdaq Real-time price. Currency in USD
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246 reactions on $CHMI conversation
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Orchid Island Capital, Inc.
This is an interesting perspective on these what I call "Bear Market" rallies. Today we are in an usual set of circumstances where fundamentally sound balance sheets like Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, 3M, CLF, & more can have strong revenue but miss expectations by 5% or less but they'll fall by almost 20%. If they beat expectations they'll barely go above 5% and in many cases they'll fall mysteriously. Today we're in a market full of uncertainty. Things do not make sense in the way equities are behaving. Famed economist Jeremy Spiegel on CNBC said he expects Fed Hikes to cont to rise into 2023 so this won't end anytime soon. Second, Mortgage Rates are above 5% and will cont to rise however there's some good news that Construction of new homes will occur in the next 2 QTRS. The issue today for REITs is Affordability vs. Availability as shared on CNBC. In order to drive affordability there needs to be MORE new homes to cool off demand or if not the scenario will be Hyper inflation of old established Homes as I've seen on these sites. Last, rentals are going higher than the Norm. My understanding is that rent prices are up due to the pandemic as the Govt made it difficult to collect $$$ during the lockdown. This caused many issues for Landlords and Land owners that has driven them to escalate prices above market. So would a person TODAY pay $3,500 in rent for a small 2 BR? I doubt it. Homeownership will always be the prize! Why rent expensively when you can OWN. $ORC, $NLY, $EFC, $EARN, $TWO, $MPW, $CHMI, $AGNC & more will be re-positioned for the future. That's why they've cut the Dividend recently for some. Its going to be full of market uncertainty for awhile. As we face historically high inflation across food, gas, & travel, War in Ukraine will cont into late 2022, Mortgage rates will eventually get to 6%+, Fed will Hike another 50 basis pts and more. This is a bear market so be patient with all REITs as their in different positions. They'll cont to climb as the market normalizes as these are mortgage backed securities by the Government so its protected. Be patient and GL to ALL!!
$CHMI earnings are around the corner. Eager to hear the news.
Orchid Island Capital, Inc.
Folks here on $ORC, please check out the earnings for $CHMI that was posted the other day. I own this as well and always do your research. GL to All!!!
Share price looking sad. i thought rising rates were a benefit for cash flow for Cherry Hill.
Some investors must be convinced the dividend is being lowered. Hope they are wrong.
Disappointed in SP. NLY reported good news and jumped 4.5%, AGNC no news but still up 2.75%.
CHMI up .75% less than a third of AGNC's gain
nasdaq +3.. and here 0%.. some is really wrong
Fortunately, BV decreased by less than the unrestricted cash, which dropped $11.5M (18%) this quarter.
Rah, rah, Bishop.
Book value decreased by 15% this quarter alone, which is a trend every quarter going back farther than your posts anywhere.
I'm a little surprised by the amount of the SP decline. I thought a very large percentage of their portfolio was MSRs. Rising interest rates are suppose to prevent redemptions so CHMI can receive their service fee for a much longer period of time. Unfortunately I have not seen what percentage of their portfolio is MSRs.
Hopefully I will find a recent analysis that might explain it all better.
why are we down?
Did anyone receive a letter to choose between cash dividend or stock for first qtr.payment?
Two Harbors Investment Corp.
I think $TWO is on solid ground per earnings call. Yes, there's a chance things can downturn due to market sentiment and Fed enabled conditions as expected around March however based on the macros such as 30 Yr mortgage highs on contracts, an increase of demand that'll continue due to under supply as people believe it or not are STILL buying single family homes. Yes, rates are known as a deterrent but according to historical data the market typically performs in a bull mindset. So the high rates in my opinion won't destabilize things unless something hits us unbeknownst. I would say and do your research buy into $TWO, $IVR, $CHMI, $EARN, $AGNCand if you're open to some risk look into $IRCP and their portfolio for an International investment play that you might be a bit curious to buy into for down the road prospects. But $TWO is a good situation for now altho I am going to wait until March after Fed make their 1st rate hikes as the market will ultimately have a knee jerk reaction and $TWO will suffer from market setback so I believe there's some room for a decline but we'll see how things pan out! GL to ALL!!!
Nice article on Seeking Alpha by Scott Kennedy, who always does in depth analysis on REITS, usually NLY and AGNC. Per Scott, who rarely issues buy ratings, CHMI is a buy, as it's book value is $16.25 a share. He rates the stock a hold if it hits $14.25 and a sell if it hits it's full book value of $16.25.
These are hardly wild recommendations. CHMI is still a screaming buy at these levels.
Cherry Hill is maintaining the quarterly dividend of .27 a share. Now if the share price can stay down so I can buy some more!
Why the big drop today?
Not thrilled by the core earnings, net losses all the way around, but especially the erosion of BV.
I'm personally looking for an exit well above $10, before or after the next dividend. And because I'm a sucker for these types of stocks, an entrance back under $8.50.
Any thoughts on the next dividend?
I'd love it if they kept it at $0.40
But I'm thinking current value x 12% / 4 = $0.23
Nice move above $15 recently. Still holding with a $12 cost basis.
Orchid Island Capital, Inc.
$ORC is an underdog of a performing REITs stock which tells you that this is a great opportunity to get exposure in this type of market. For example, as the market was going thru tumultuous times a few wks ago ORC remained pretty resilient in forward downward pressure as it could've seen bigger declines. This is an income play (longterm) not a price appreciation plan so you have to change mindset overall. Second, REITs generally speaking perform well when interest rates hike up altho broader consensus "assume" the opposite happen for MBS. According to reports like SA, it was mentioned how over the past 20 yrs, REITs have produced nearly 2x higher total returns compared to typical stocks in the 12 months following announcement of rate hikes. So take that input as you will but REITs are basically leveraged operating debt used in many cases to offset greater tax implications esp in today's BLUE environment where taxes increases are of favor forward looking. So dont fall to assumptions that REITs underperform during rate hikes. ORC has a very stable Dividend altho pricing has trickled down a bit however this is an income play not a price appreciation focus. And an add'l nugget, wealthy or stable high income earners usually push for real estate investment as a tax haven and always remember real estate is not a want but an essential form of living. People will always have an interest in buying new property. Don't believe me? Check today's report for last month's Home sales in the US for the month of November'21 where sales were very good altho it was a 1.9% slip YOY which is marginal. So again, REITs perform well in this type of environment overall, just check and do your research. On another note, plz take a look at the following Divvy paying stocks like; #1: $CHMI, #2: $RVI, #3: $ARR, #4: $CRT, #5: $ARLP. Those are some of the decent Dividend paying stocks to look into esp $CHMI. Any hoot, GL to ALL Investors!!!
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