|Day's range||54.76 - 57.25|
The benchmark palm oil contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange were up 0.1% at 2,688 ringgit ($644.06) in early trade. It reached as much as 2,699 ringgit in the previous session, the highest since Nov. 17, 2017. The contract rose as it tracked the strength of palm oil on the Dalian, which reached record highs in the previous session.
Natural gas inventories are remarkably low just ahead of winter season, and despite some large storage injections at the end of summer, declining drilling and rising export volumes make for a tight market
(Bloomberg) -- OPEC may have no appetite to cut oil production deeper when it meets next month, but flaring political crises across the group are once again threatening supply.Unrest erupted in Iraq and Iran this month -- two of the Middle East’s biggest producers -- as people took to the streets protesting financial hardship and bad governance. That’s adding to the range of supply threats already afflicting the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, from economic collapse in Venezuela and simmering discontent in Algeria to the recent missile attack on Saudi Arabia.“We kind of had a second Arab spring, but it’s been under the radar,” said Helima Croft, chief commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets. “The real question is what is going to happen in Iraq.”Iraq, OPEC’s second-biggest member, has violently cracked down on demonstrations against corruption in recent weeks that have spread to the southern oil hub of Basra. Iran has seen its oil exports slashed by U.S. sanctions and is brutally suppressing protests spurred by the resulting economic stagnation.OPEC and its allies -- who together pump about half the world’s oil -- will meet in Vienna in early December to consider production levels for 2020, having cut output this year to prevent a global surplus. Despite signs that fragile global demand and surging U.S. shale supply will unleash a new glut, they’ve signaled no desire to reduce output further.They may not have a choice.In recent years, unplanned supply disruptions within OPEC nations have done as much to keep markets balanced as the cartel’s deliberate cutbacks. Iran and Venezuela have lost a combined 1.7 million barrels a day since last October, more than all 24 nations in the OPEC+ coalition agreed to cut this year.As turmoil intensifies across the group, next year could see more accidental losses: oil prices of about $60 a barrel are already below levels most OPEC nations need to cover government spending, and a further slump would only deepen the strain.“There is no better way to put it: the geopolitical risk is rising in the Middle East again,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates Ltd. in London.Algeria is struggling to placate a mass youth-led movement seeking change after ousting long-term President Abdelaziz Bouteflika earlier this year, and Libya remains split by armed factions. Ecuador, which will leave OPEC in January, suffered a 20% slump in oil production last month amid riots and looting.The biggest risk is posed by Iraq, according to RBC’s Croft. While the country’s oil sector has proven robust during recent turbulence, even boosting output when Islamic State militants captured swathes of territory five years ago, the latest demonstrations reflect a new level of popular discontent.“If you had attacks on infrastructure, oil workers going on strike -- Iraq is the place that could surprise the market,” she said.Iraq’s current unrest is partly driven by widespread anger at Iranian interference in its politics, but as Iran’s own troubles worsen that involvement will only intensify, according to Croft.As it reels from President Donald Trump’s campaign of “maximum pressure” -- aimed at forcing the Islamic Republic to curtail its nuclear program -- Tehran will likely retaliate by asserting its influence in the region, she said.Read More: Iran protests are about more than rising fuel prices.Iran could try to destabilize oil production in the south of Iraq, where American companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. operate, Croft said. There may also be consequences for Saudi Arabia.Half of the kingdom’s output capacity was temporarily knocked out when its Abqaiq processing facility was blasted by drones and missiles on Sept. 14. The brief disruption halted 5.7 million barrels a day, or about 5% of global oil supply.Yemen’s Houthi rebel group claimed credit and U.S. officials blamed their allies in Iran, though Tehran denied responsibility. It followed a spate of attacks on oil tankers in the region, which Washington also blamed on the Islamic Republic.Unless Tehran is given relief from the sanctions squeezing its economy, further incidents are likely, said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. That could dramatically alter the anticipated picture of oversupply.“Barring a diplomatic breakthrough, the next Iranian attack on Saudi oil facilities is more a matter of where and when than if,” said McNally.To contact the reporter on this story: Grant Smith in London at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: James Herron at email@example.com, Christopher Sell, John DeaneFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Given its tremendous oil and gas reserves, Iraq could become a mayor petrochemicals player, but corruption and competition and geopolitical instability have proven to be major stumbling blocks
The S&P; 500 initially fell during trading on Wednesday but turned around just above the 3100 level to show signs of resiliency again. The 3100 level makes sense, it’s a large, round, psychologically significant figure.
Crude oil markets recovered during the day on Wednesday, bouncing back towards the 200 day EMA yet again. As the markets recover, it looks as if more of the same is ahead.
Based on the current price at $56.31, the direction of the January WTI crude oil market the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the support cluster at $56.17 to $56.08.
The US dollar initially pulled back against the Japanese yen but then turned around to show signs of support. At this point, the market then looks as if we are trying to continue the move higher, but obviously there is a lot of new slow out there that continues to throw risk appetite around.
President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia and OPEC have 'a common goal' of keeping the oil market balanced and predictable, and Moscow will continue cooperation under the global supply curbs deal. "Our (common with OPEC) goal is for the market to be balanced, acceptable for producers and consumers and the most important - and I want to underline this - predictable," Putin told a forum on Wednesday. Saudi Arabia's King Salman said on Wednesday that the kingdom's oil policy aims to promote stability in global oil markets, and serves consumers and producers alike.
Malaysia aims to start producing palm oil-based biojet fuel within five years and is in talks with several potential partners about setting up a plant, the head of the industry's marketing board said on Wednesday. Malaysia, the world's second biggest producer of palm oil, is looking for new markets to boost demand for the vegetable oil, widely used in everything from soap to lipstick to snack foods. Ahmad Parveez Ghulam Kadir, director general of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), said Malaysia was exploring "all possibilities" with potential investors as it expected demand for bio-jet fuel to grow in the coming years.
Top palm oil producers Indonesia and Malaysia will see little growth in output next year, potentially leading to a supply deficit and higher prices, leading industry analyst James Fry said on Wednesday. The outlook for Malaysia's production growth was also bearish, he said, although he did not provide estimates. Fry is the chairman of consultancy LMC International and his forecasts are closely watched in the palm oil industry.
The time that OPEC rhetoric caused huge volatility in oil markets is long gone and in today’s well supplied market, it’s economic powerhouses like China that influence the price of oil
The silver markets rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, breaking above the highs of the last couple of days in a sign of strength. However, we haven’t exactly exploded to the upside so there still are a lot of questions when it comes to silver.
Oil fell more than $1 a barrel on Tuesday on concerns about excess global crude supply and limited progress toward resolving the U.S.-China trade dispute that has clouded the outlook for oil demand. Brent crude futures fell $1.53, or 2.5%, to settle at $60.91 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures lost $1.84, or 3.2%, to settle at $55.21 a barrel.
China has clearly become the preferred partner to help develop Iran’s Namavaran field which could contain up to 53 billion barrels of crude oil