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Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF)

NYSE - Nasdaq Real-time price. Currency in USD
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25.38+1.52 (+6.39%)
As of 11:25AM EDT. Market open.
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  • J
    John
    From Fidelity this morning...

    ISS-EVA changes Cliffs rating from 34 (Underperform) to 82 (Buy)

    ISS-EVA is the definitive source of financial data bases, valuation modeling and investment research using the proprietary EVA methodology originally developed by Stern Stewart &
    Co, the global consulting firm. The principals of ISS-EVA developed the PRVit stock ranking system used in these reports while they were partners at Stern Stewart, which sold PRVit
    and other technology assets to ISS-EVA in 2006. EVA Advisers LLC, an affiliate of ISS-EVA, uses the PRVit model to manage quantitatively-optimized equity portfolios. The company’s
    Financial Radar Screen software enables users to apply EVA in corporate performance management and securities analysis.
  • M
    MrK
    At least the analysts knew Cliffs is now a steel maker instead of an IO miner. That’s a step in the right direction , after using that tired excuse again and again of claiming Cliffs was still tied to spot IO pricing .
  • C
    Clyde Fricken
    The analysts who cover the steel sector don't need a background in steel to advise clients. They simply must provide well written reports and have a winning personality. Case in point take the 2 female analysts covering this sector. The one who used to work at BOA was a journalism major. The current GS analyst who is an expert in international steel predictions left her job working for a coal mine in Australia and was placed initially in the internet, video and toy sector. Now GS has given her the top position covering steel.
  • G
    Guy
    CFRA maintains Strong Buy with a new 12 months Price Target of $45 up from $30
  • S
    Super Dave
    WOW after a fairly boring pre market this thing has started exploding. . . hope it keeps going....didn't see any additional upgrades........I really need to see a nice pop. I knew things were bad when last sunday my dad said he wanted to sell clf because it kept going down and hadn't done anything since june. . . even i was losing faith. That conference call sure helped!!!!!
  • P
    PumperDuck
    I can’t help but wonder what the benefit was for Emily to put out a PT on CLF 1 week before earnings.

    Wouldn’t you want to hear what every single CEO of all the Steel players have to say at earnings?

    Why would you say anything Before earnings? Why not wait till you have the outlook by the Steel Bigs first and THEN make your prognosticating PT and utter your outlook.

    Now, Emily could have egg on her face when analyst start to raise PT’s and she is lagging. I’ll give her props for making a quick adjustment if she does it.

    I find it ….Ponderous…maaaan.
  • T
    Ted
    I still think another HBI plant is coming in 2022. lG stated no HBI #2 is coming. LG stated all HBI is being used in BF not EAFs. Toledo is producing HBI at $187/ton and it is close to pure iron. CLF has five EAFs that could use HBI. HBI is more efficient than scrap In EAFs. HBI was developed to melt in EAFs. My theory is LG is going to squeeze MSB before announcing a second HBI. That's what I would do. Two blast furnaces in Burns Harbor are being pulled ahead to this year for capital expenditures. Cleveland #5 is going thru what IH #7 went thru this year. CLF is going to need more HBI when these furnaces are upgraded along with EAFs.
  • s
    stalyon
    I have a pretty good grasp (I think) on the valuation metrics and the thesis for CLF price rising into the $40-$50 range, but I'm not able to get my head around the thesis and metrics to support a $100 price in the not-too-distant future. I certainly appreciate the elimination of debt and the wonderful job LG and his team have done to position CLF for the future, but could folks kindly share the numbers that support what many feel is a strong possibility of $100 per share down the road.

    I ask for two (2) primary reasons:
    1) Obviously, I do not want to sell out of a stock too early.
    2) I'd like to try to understand how the numbers will get us there.

    Thanks, in advance, and GOOD LUCK to ALL !!
  • M
    MrK
    The pre market certainly makes for a wonderful Monday morning along with my morning coffee ! Go Cliffs !
  • P
    PumperDuck
    The best move that LG is making, is No move at all.
    Solidify your feedstock in the most profitable sector of the Steel industry. He's working on it. Don't add Capex, at the highest pricing of steel...EVER, just to add capacity. Take full advantage to eliminate debt with this stratospherically high pricing atm. I seriously don't care about share count. I know some here do. I love that we are not all in agreement. It creates wonderful discussions from differing POV's.

    I believe my POV is going to pay off in Spades. Here's why.

    Inflation is real. Articles are starting to pop up about Hyperinflation. 4% and higher is being written. Why is this so important? Debt for one. If you have a variable interest rate then thats going to hurt. But, I'm seeing something else that concerns me more. Retail. I just bought my Ford Lariat last year and pay 1.5% on my loan. As rates go higher then this creates pressure on upward pricing. Higher interest rates makes it tough to spend on big ticket items. Food, clothes, vehicles, housing, everything will keep creeping up. At some point, Mr. Consumer slows his spending. 2023? 24? 25?
    To be sure, some of this red hot economy is transitory. As the economy finds its new normal, so will steel usage and by extension, steel manufacturing. This will have caused the transitory pricing of steel. Add to this the pricing of prime scrap going up and you have a dangerous recipe for steel makers IMO.

    Retail will eventually push back and will happen by mid decade right when all this new capacity hits its stride. Worldwide logistics should have ironed out its wrinkles by then opening up for more steel everywhere, which in turn creates a lack of pricing support everywhere. The US may have tariffs, but if steel is being sold for $700 in Asia, it can be imported for $1000 here. Don't bet against it. ( Its just an example)

    So, what happens when these steel companies are Capex'd into oblivion with a new plant, and a mountain of New debt and CoGs around $1100-$1200 and steel is being imported at or below their cost? Hmm, sound familiar? You may agree or disagree, I'm not saying X goes BK or anything like that. I'm simply saying that the likes of X is setting themselves up for exposure and a lot of debt at the same time.

    In strolls 'Salsa', Celso, and offers to help X, or any other distressed steel maker, take some beautiful assets off their hands...... for a few shares and a bottle of Scotch. How does Celso do it? Its cash on hand because they are $0 net debt. Possibly truly debt free with only the ABL sporting a revolving balance, if any. What does it matter the share count? If you spend all your cash to buy back shares, you are left with debt accruing interest and no Cash on Hand to take advantage of the Industry's Stupidity. The best thing that all the Steel makers could have done was postpone a decision on expansion. It supports the pricing. Let the industry be maxed out on production and 'Forced' to import. Forced to expand 12-24 months down the road.

    Inflation is long term bad but short term euphoric. Increased production sounds great, but is overall bad for pricing. These will come together around the same time. 2024-25?

    By then, CLF will have been forged by fire. Nobody will care about share count. We will only care about CoH. CLF will be a boring company by then. LG will have retired. The heavy manipulation will be gone. Yes, steel will always be manipulated, but the drops to 1/3-1/2 within a few weeks will be gone. CLF will have overtaken NUE as best of Breed. And we all can sell covered calls on our positions from an island in Greece.

    Thoughts?
  • T
    TraderJeff
    Perhaps this is a mix of wishful thinking mixed in with a healthy dose of LG financial results but I think we may see $30 this week .
  • D
    DrillDownClown
    Didn't hear CC last week, was traveling. Just read the transcript

    Stellar...absolutely stellar...Adding more tomorrow. I've been saying $30+ by EOY...it will easily beat that. $50+ by Q3 next year.
  • J
    John
    I bought 1K shares Fri. I can't imagine CLF being up less than $1 on Mon., as long as the market is ok and the infrastructure talks don't collapse. If those two things hold for the week, CLF should be up at least $3 this week. The news and chart is just screaming a new upwards ballgame.
  • M
    MrK
    Synergy from digging IO , through manufacturing steel and auto parts to then recycling the high quality scrap back into the furnaces to reuse . Its brilliant and Cliffs shareprice does not reflect that move yet . Denying your competitors up to 20% of high end scrap will make Cliffs leaner and more profitable while making your competitors pay more for the scrap they desperately need . LG tilted the table again , making your competitors climb uphill while LG coasts down in the opposite direction is bigger than we know …………yet . 30$ will come very soon , we’re not in a race with X anymore , we’re chasing and gaining on NUE .
  • J
    John
    Argus maintains Cliff's buy rating and raises target price! (From Fidelity - report dated today 10/25/2021)

    "In our view, despite the run-up, the shares are attractively valued at current levels. Our target price is
    $28, up from $26"
  • D
    DrillDownClown
    So Emily Chieng gets her thesis for downgrading CLF from her own incorrect share count that used used to calculate an incorrect EPS? She should be fired immediately!

    It was either incompetence or it was done purposely. Both are grounds for immediate termination....we are talking about a $1 billion dollar mistake....people lost money through getting stopped out ( I NEVER use stops) or momentum or experienced traders selling
    in that downgrade news.
  • G
    Gordon
    For those who missed it:
    CLEVELAND-CLIFFS INC : CFRA RAISES TARGET PRICE BY $13 TO $43
    Reuters 12:14 AM Eastern Daylight Time Oct 25, 2021

    Cheerio....and away we go!
  • C
    Clyde Fricken
    Goldman Sachs threw the red flag to challenge CLF earnings and lost due to their inaccurate share count and bad math. Now GS is out of options and unable to short CLF for the next 2 quarters.
  • M
    MrK
    The colluding short hedges were burned a bit on Friday with their options missing . LG had a classic CC listing all of Cliffs plus’s and correcting more than a few so called “analysts “ fudged numbers . There is no reason we are not at 30$ a share with the outlook LG has given us . Mark my words he will either take advantage of WS manipulation or shorts will leave in the next 6 months . Steel is not going under 1000$ in the next 2 years and LG will FINALLY be able to run his company from a position of strength and he has shown an iron will when he’s not backed into a BK corner . It seems the US steel industry , auto makers , and I’m guessing the state of MN will soon learn how to play hardball at a MLB level like MSB did Friday . Colluding bear Hedges should move on to greener pastures or LG will ruin them one of these days …….just for fun. I couldn’t be more pleased with LGs performance the man is an honest , hard working Jedi level CEO , I can’t wait to see where he and Ceslo take us in 5 years .
    Buy
    Hold
    Forget
  • P
    PumperDuck
    There are a myriad reasons that I don't have a lot of respect for analysts. But, I will focus on just a couple.1) Inaccurate identification of CLF. For over a year now, CLF has shown that its been transforming. To be fair, CLF was a hybrid at best of external pellet sales and internal usage for their own steel mills with AKS acquisition. But, once US-MT was purchased and used 85%+ pellet production internally, then you get no pass for misidentification. If you are covering the domestic Steel industry, then you are covering AKS and Arcellor Mittal along with CLF. Analysts are either lazy or incompetent. I'm going with lazy for the moment. How do you not know that AKS and MTUSA (most of any way) is no longer? Where did they go?Another inaccuracy; share count. These analysts at Big Banks get paid to do the sector analysis. Its their job. Its what they went to college for. I just struggle to find the words on that one. 2) Projected earnings. This is the worst of the worst. To be fair, Emily came in real close on earnings even with the wrong share count. But, that was an educated guess. And yet, it was a 'miss'. Why? This one got me a bit annoyed for a separate reason than just 'missing'. In the ER, auto steel sales came in at 20%. It has been dropping each quarter, all year. Its been an enormous fall off. My point is, how do you project earnings when the pricing mechanism keeps changing each quarter and you have no idea what that number will be? Does GS know #$%$ the Auto contracts Will be? Do they know how much steel Auto will purchase in Q4? They don't. The Analyst should leave the earnings per share alone. The pricing per ton is changing rapidly. Capex changes rapidly based on customer mix and royalty payments. Share count is being adjusted as we speak and that messes with earnings/share. This is not selling LULU Lemon pants. I've had a ton of fun bringing numbers to this MB. Not always on point, and I get corrected or I correct myself. But, I don't get paid to do it. I'm a private investor responsible for my own family and receive not one red cent for my opinion. Yet, I enjoy a good civil discussion where we all bring our research and perspective to a 'Room' and share for the betterment of our 'Community'. And yet, I don't recall any serious projection in earnings for each quarter. Sales? Yes. A stab at ebitda? Usually just an up or down on guidance from the C suite. No real prognostication from this board. Maybe Analysts should drop by a MB once in a while for a discussion. There are some smart people with excellent POV's here. Maybe the Analysts could learn a thing or two.