Listening to call now and they just list host site right as they were going to QA, so it’s delayed now. Will be very interesting to see market reaction. They pulled forward guidance and didn’t say when it would be back. Had $169 million loss from transaction related expenses for 18 days they owned KCS in 2020. That was not included in adjusted EPS, not sure why. It was interesting that they said they weren’t part of KCS 2021 plan and cited that as one reason for no guidance- you would think they’d be all over that. They did say there is 930 million shares and that they are at peak debt now and it would take 24 months to get to 2.5x debt ratio to resume dividend increases or any buybacks. Not trying to sound negative but didn’t inspire a lot of confidence in me until they get STB approval and get the benefits from the tie up. Hoping QA strikes a more positive tone.
A
I'm not sure how KSU's earnings are incorporated into CP's earnings. I only found KSU's merger-related expenses in CP's 2021 financial report. KSU reported an EBIT of ~C$671m, while CP reported C$2852m. Assuming those are separate figures, CPKCS has a trailing EPS of ~C$3.8 and a P/E of 24.5 (as of Jan. 27). That's not cheap. KSU is a dog and it will require a lot of heavy lifting to make it profitable enough to justify the pricetag. And then there's the risk of not getting final approval from the STB, in which case CP would have to put KSU back for sale at a loss north of C$10bn. As much as I like the idea of a single railroad connecting MX-US-CA, I find the near-term risks too high at this lofty valuation and therefore decided to sell my shares a week ago. Good luck to everyone here!
J
CP and CNR both at about 25x earnings based on full year 2021 adj eps. Same valuation. My guess is CP grows faster moving forward with Creel/PSR, KCS deal and a better grain crop eventually. CP has a better return on equity. They got debt for KCS at low rate = good timing on acquisition, got it done before rates increased. Duopoly pricing power during inflationary times is a bonus🎉
K
Well, after much consideration I bought in at $71 USD today. My time horizon is 10 years so just gonna sit back with this and see how the 3 nation plan works out. Creel mentioned yesterday that "forever is a long time, but does not see this happening for any others". That stuck with me and what a wide moat with rails, in general, but this one specifically. GLTA Longs!!
W
Buy $92.00 sold $94.50 within 2 days 800 shares and $2000 profit. Lol good money I am out for now
t
* Following its release of “soft” quarterly results after the bell on Thursday, Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier raised his target for shares of Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. (CP-N, CP-T) by $1 to $114 with a “buy” rating. The average is $106.35
D
100 shares at 89.20 thanks!
T
I hope she goes to low 80s my last buy was 82.90 and would love another opportunity to load some more.
E
anyone thinking that the BC flooding and big increase in O&G prices will hurt their Q4/full year results? I'm thinking it will be a good buying opportunity right after earnings report
D
Impatient money goes where the action is. CP is in limbo until they get the green light from the STB. which might take 6 months.
But for patient money, not pressured by qtrly returns, a very good "second chance" sale here.
D
Congrats to everyone at CP.
First time making the Corporate Knights Global 100 Index, at #34. And the top freight transportation company on the list.
D
Based on the messages and tones of the various earnings calls, I have come to the realization, sadly, that the brief era of rejuvenation and reinvention of freight rail in North America is is truly over.
As much as it was obvious that Hunter Harrison was a once-in-forever mind, a force of nature, that legacy will sadly never, ever be challenged. Because in the small league of self-absorbed 'Class 1' cowards, he is no one's hero.
His rival peers --- who denied and blocked his ideas for change, simple ideas that deliver incalculable improvements --- are all now slowly drifting off to their unearned, overblown retirements. And they have left real PSR dead and buried where no one will ever find it again.
They're now moving on to 'customer engagement', 'workplace inclusivity', 'technological developments'. Everything but the tough, messy, exhausting work of railroading .
OR is slowly being recast to the wayside as a "non-driver", an "outcome, not a goal", a "trivial factoid", of interest only to weirdos, or the somehow misguided. This 'spin' is nothing short of utter contempt for the very essence of the capital market investing.
Only one railroad has anything on its horizon representing a source of significant value creation: The CP-KCS integration. [I'm truly expecting a Hunter-honoring / legacy-creating performance on this one, Keith.]
Every other railroad has "sucessfully" returned to being a self-satisifed, overly rewarding country club. "With that pesky Harrison gone, and the analysts finally calming back down into their mesmerized comas, we can all go back to enjoying a relaxed, stress-free lifestyle."
Those who did ever hear the prophet explain the unrealized potential of railroads can only weep. It shall never be,
j
CSX had growth fourth quarter increased 21 percent from the prior year. I hope CP will be the same.
J
Have a good feeling that we might break $100 this week. Once that is broken, the climb will be faster. Regardless, long-term you can only make money with this stock. Hope history repeats and it performs as it did in the last 10 years.
K
I can’t help but laugh at people who seem to wanna day trade this stock.
It’s a long term hold, along with CN. Nobody else will ever build another railway. Money printing machines for decades to come.
D
I have been in the railways a long time. I sold CP after the split. People here who think CP is going back to $300 are delusional. There are now almost 700 million shares outstanding. CP will be lucky to get back to $100. P/E = Revenue divided by # of shares outstanding.
t
Walter with the one gif he knows. Giggle giggle
C
Bought the dip. Thanks for the cheap shares today.
B
Anyone notice all the media headlines “Trains In Downtown Los Angeles Ransacked By Thieves”? Roughly everyday near Lincoln Heights, LA, 90 cargo containers are broken into. *Fox News/Flash Headlines has some good video documentation of looted packaging across all the tracks (Union Pacific owned tracks), for a couple miles. Shh…Lance, the problem is even worse near the Intermodal facility. Maybe UNP Legal should worry more about this increase in cargo thefts than filing trackage rights in Texas with the STB.
CP is in limbo until they get the green light from the STB. which might take 6 months.
But for patient money, not pressured by qtrly returns, a very good "second chance" sale here.
First time making the Corporate Knights Global 100 Index, at #34.
And the top freight transportation company on the list.
As much as it was obvious that Hunter Harrison was a once-in-forever mind, a force of nature, that legacy will sadly never, ever be challenged. Because in the small league of self-absorbed 'Class 1' cowards, he is no one's hero.
His rival peers --- who denied and blocked his ideas for change, simple ideas that deliver incalculable improvements --- are all now slowly drifting off to their unearned, overblown retirements.
And they have left real PSR dead and buried where no one will ever find it again.
They're now moving on to 'customer engagement', 'workplace inclusivity', 'technological developments'. Everything but the tough, messy, exhausting work of railroading .
OR is slowly being recast to the wayside as a "non-driver", an "outcome, not a goal", a "trivial factoid", of interest only to weirdos, or the somehow misguided.
This 'spin' is nothing short of utter contempt for the very essence of the capital market investing.
Only one railroad has anything on its horizon representing a source of significant value creation: The CP-KCS integration.
[I'm truly expecting a Hunter-honoring / legacy-creating performance on this one, Keith.]
Every other railroad has "sucessfully" returned to being a self-satisifed, overly rewarding country club.
"With that pesky Harrison gone, and the analysts finally calming back down into their mesmerized comas, we can all go back to enjoying a relaxed, stress-free lifestyle."
Those who did ever hear the prophet explain the unrealized potential of railroads can only weep. It shall never be,
It’s a long term hold, along with CN. Nobody else will ever build another railway. Money printing machines for decades to come.