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Cresco Labs Inc. (CRLBF)
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As you look to buy, sell or hold, consider this: #1 MSOs' interest rates are going down, not up - like the majority of the markets' companies; #2 MSOs' TAM grows annually with states and countries legalizing; #3 MSOs' are priced as value stocks; and #4 MSOs' are fairly recession-proof (see flattening yield curve) as folks drink and smoke in both good times and bad. #crlbf #gtbif #vrnof #curlf #tcnff
Had a convo with a sales rep from a "cannabis" database company wanting to know if I would have an interest in them since our company buys and sells equipment and they have a cannibis database system in play (another sign of the potential growth expected
- B2B). After a long bad day watching cresco yesterday, at least the call eased the pain. In a nutshell. The conversation included talk of the amazing growth that cannibis is in line for. There was talk about how we are at the start of a "GREEN RUSH" (like gold back in the day) and that soon our GOV will have to take the industry very seriously and the tide will turn favorably as our dear leaders embrace the change coming and well the new money! Seeing that states are already embracing the new Green Rush and making money, no state, in due time, will want to be left behind. We discussed how "weed" is slowly but surely becoming more mainstream and that more individuals are trying edibles/smoking for the first time. And when people start realizing that cannibis is much healthier than drinking alchohol and that soon, like in Vegas, coffee shops and weed, well, will be good buddies. (Oddly enough a report came out that no amount of alchohol is good for the heart). People are going to change their habits from sitting in a bar to sitting in coffee shops. I personally cannot wait for a coffee/weed shop to open up in my area where I can sit, eat a cannibis treat, drink coffee. Personally I believe once "weed" is no longer a "scary word", Starbuck is going to have to add a edible section and create a great space to sit, chat and talk stoner talk with your neighbors who just discovered weed. Or other entreprenuers will step up.
I get it. Seeing Cresco today, yesterda, last month, it's scary. And then I think, how much money was made in the Gold Rush?
Glad the deal was cancelled. Gives me more confidence in how the business is run.
$MSOS, $AYRWF, $CCHWF, $CRLBF, $CURLF, $GTBIF, $JUSHF, $PLNHF $TCNNF, $TRSSF, $VRNOF An update on the Etf MSOS buying activity since 1/5/2022. Averaging down on a weekly basis…
As of 1/21/2022
shares added curr. holdings % of portfolio
TCNNF 250,000 6,135,421 13.72
GTBIF 600,000 6,995,220 13.40
VRNOF 1.0 MM 8,930,784 10.34
CURLF 1.1 MM 13,238,295 10.04
CRLBF 600,000 13,122,643. 7.89
AYRWF 650,000 4,400,911 6.75
TRSSF 550,000 8,656,581 4.45
CCHWF 900,000 13,667,174 4.07
JUSHF 1.1 MM 8,776,698 3.28
PLNHF 700,000 7,459,285 2.15
Per the MSOS website total assets under management: $972,504,103.55
For all of the investment geniuses patting themselves on the back for predicting this would go down over the last twelve months, you don't have to look hard to find many others stocks that have followed the same pattern. Roku, Fubo, Logitech, Pinterest, Teledoc, Chewy, Fastly, Shopify, anything Cathie Wood bought........... all down by more than 50%. The difference being, Cresco is fundamentally sound but has no institutional exposure. Take away the institution ownership of the aforementioned and where do you think they would be trading? Paul? Gregory? and any of the other great soothsayers?
not worried about the dropping price right now at all. Canceling that deal for acquisition is a good thing. Cresco now has all that cash they didn't spend in their pocket to hold in economic downturn, or invest in more profitable property in the future. Having cash is a good thing right now. Prevents the possibility of bankruptcy when you can pay your bills with reserved cash.
Wall street firm Cowen Inc. accumulated 1.5 million shares of Cresco yesterday. They had no qualms about paying over $6 and they obviously don’t care about back office compliance departments or appearances. Nobody cares about illegally of cannabis, the Wall street whales are looking for the next big untapped space now that crypto is dead.
I have started to realize that the marijuana industry is just like the liquor industry. When people are happy, they smoke weed. when people are sad, they smoke weed, when people are in pain, they smoke weed. when people celebrate, they smoke weed. its always going to sell in any occasion. just buy low and hold
I’m in at 5.96 feeling great!
$MSOS, $AYRWF, $CCHWF, $CRLBF, $CURLF, $GTBIF, $JUSHF, $PLNHF $TCNNF, $TRSSF, $VRNOF
Published this morning…
This week, a large buyer of American cannabis companies over the past two months ran out of funds to continue doing so, and it seemed to weigh on the sub-sector. AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS), which began to see massive inflows in November, as we previously discussed, experienced this trend continue through November and even into the new year. The table below shows updates from the one we shared in mid-November, when the number of shares had exploded by 42% in just seven trading sessions to 38.88 million shares (now 45.3 million):
The manager patiently deployed the funds and maintained high levels of cash until this week, when the fund invested almost all of its remaining cash balance. Here are the cash levels and the percentage in cash from 11/12, the time of our prior discussion, when cash was $151 million (now $1 million):
While the $19 million decline during this past week is what seemed to trigger concern among traders, most of the cash had been depleted in the prior week, when cash fell from $66 million (5.9%) to $20 million (1.8%).
Deployment of cash by MSOS appeared to help its largest constituents, where most of the money went. The portfolio added three new names (AFC Gamma, Agrify and urban-gro) and sold one small position in cbdMD. Here is the percentage change in shares held by MSOS in each of the names from 10/29 to 01/21:
When thinking about the potential impact on the stocks, it's important to understand that the number of shares bought is important, but the number relative to the float is even more important. The biggest buying by far among larger names was in Verano Holdings (the fund added 5.4 million shares, an increase of 155%), and the stock was the best performer among the largest holdings in the ETF. During this time-frame, the New Cannabis Ventures Global Cannabis Stock Index fell 31.2%, so the large MSOs substantially outperformed the market, perhaps due in part to the ETF's buying:
Now that MSOS has deployed all of the cash inflows over the past several months, some may fear that this reduced buying will deflate the stocks, which, as highlighted above, haven't exactly inflated. We think this is the wrong conclusion. The shares that have been purchased by the ETF have reduced the floats of its constituents. While it is true that a prior source of buying has ended, this has no direct impact on the future prices. If MSOS receives outflows, then it would be negative, while if it receives inflows it will become a positive. The current situation is neutral in our view, though it does explain perhaps some relative performance in certain names over the past few months.
The future prices of the stocks held by MSOS will depend upon the underlying fundamentals as well as overall investor interest in the space and, to a lesser degree, flows into or out of the ETF. While we haven't conducted a complete review of how much the ETF owns as a percentage of the float or of the shares outstanding for each constituent, we think this is really the best way to think about it. Take GTI, for example, the largest holding in the ETF. MSOS owns 7 million shares, which is 3.5% of the common shares outstanding and 3% of the common shares on an as-converted basis. This isn't particularly significant in our view. On the other hand, the ETF owns 10% of the float of Power REIT, which may help explain its very strong performance over the past few months.
While traders were apparently disheartened to see the last of the cash in MSOS get spent, we think that this impacts sentiment more than actual prices. The cash was seen, incorrectly in our view, as some sort of potential support for the stocks that would somehow prevent the stocks from falling. In fact, even spending the cash over the past few months as the number of shares increased by 65% (approximately $450 million) didn't prevent the stocks from declining.
We think another takeaway from the recent ramping up at MSOS, which has currently $972.5 million in assets under management, is to pay attention to the ETFs, which are an important source of demand for cannabis stocks. These ETFs broaden the audience of investors since they trade on higher exchanges. Last week, we detailed the evolution of cannabis ETFs in a research piece we shared with subscribers at our premium subscription service, 420 Investor. We are tracking 11 ETFs, most of which take very different approaches from one another. MSOS is the largest, and its market activity can certainly impact the prices of securities. When sentiment improves in the sector, traders and investors could be well served to track the flows and holdings of the ETFs.
Those with dry powder say $50k right now will be flying in two years. Opportunity of a lifetime. Easy money.
lol $5.80 was the price Cresco opening price back in 2019.
What are you waiting for ? It’s a gift from heaven.
Greg where do if at all see an entry point? Or do you think this company has no future?
This is approaching 1x forward sales.
Industry CAGR 27% as far as the eye can see. 👀 We got some rocket ships here but the ignition switch is misfiring.
Cresco partners with Wiz Khalifa in California. This should be interesting
Cresco under 6 is a gift. Y’all are getting shaken out
Keep buying longs! Will be laughing at these prices in 2 years
Just picked up 1,700 at $5.85. Going to buy in trenches every time this thing falls 25%. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen too often. Best of luck longs!
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