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CEL-SCI Corporation (CVM)

NYSE American - NYSE American Delayed price. Currency in USD
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22.21+0.06 (+0.27%)
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  • F
    Fosco
    Hello
    I have refrained for posting to take a little breath and think about the situation, sorry for this.
    As Andy exposed very well, there are 3 scenarios out there, and it looks like this cash raise is to deal with the grey one, the scenario when products goes to approval with secondary beneficial effects and safety. Pps would not be as favorable as current pps until approval.
    Let's not forget that Cel SCi is fully blinded, and despite the optimism, everything can happen, so let's not take useless risks : that's what Geert must have been very wise to think.
    Nevertheless I (and my portfolio) did not really enjoy this last minute cash raise which broke our little momentum, but that's only my personal short, miserable and limited term impression.
    One thing to address though. Sometimes we heard Geert saying stuff like 7% would be enough for FDA, etc...
    Well, truth is in those clinical trials, what matters is "significance", if significance is proven with less effect than the 10% overall superiority (meaning larger sample size used) then, absolutely, there shall not be a single problem for approval, as the effect would be proven, even though a little lower than expected. I do not think pps will not sky rocket as it should otherwise.
    If no significance is reached, then it will be difficult to lobby for an approval, because you are above the 5% false positive boundary, and this would be an unusual precedent and pps will suffer. Of course, then you have the QoL, PFS values that might come to rescue the drug... but still, that would be a Pyrrhic victory, enough for AF to write a book etc... not good for pps sustainability at those level anyway (may be good for the company and its directors in the end, but overall short term not good),
    So I hope Geert was thinking about the former case.
    In any case, Geert is blinded so let's not blame him for taking no risk to preserve the work of his life

    On the positive side, there are those who brought 32M$. AF said initially they were not happy with what Geert said about lower benefit or so below 10% would still be good, stil,l they brought 32M$ in the end. So I am thinking AF was being manipulated to temper the pps, lol

    GL all and take care

    Fosco
  • S
    Stocks And Scotch
    Has the company started prepping the BLA?

    I read the message board from April 2019 to present yesterday.

    Fascinating to see the psychology change over the months. Diehard longs have now begun to question their initial bets… tons of manipulative posts… crazy predictions… I found it fascinating that days before the December capital raise Sushi predicted “they are not upgrading the facility and don’t need money before data… which was predicted to be April.
    A hand full of days later, both told those things came to light. Learning Curves evolution is fascinating… leading up to a very strange rant last night… still curious what that was about. He went from being long to Geert is blackmailed by debt collectors and will end up in jail…. Huh.

    Really nothing has changed except the company has more cash now, the facility is upgraded, and hiring has taken place.

    Has the company started prepping the BLA?
  • D
    DP
    Even if CVM posts 25% positive data tomorrow, they don’t magically have billions of dollars injected into their operating account. All companies need cash to operate. They currently don’t have a revenue stream and even a fast moving buyout will take some time. They will still have payroll, rent, lights, toilet paper, etc. They raised 23M on a 5% discount and barely diluted the shares. Show me another company you invest in that only has 50M (ish) shares. What is so attractive about this company is that a buyout is only divided 50M (ish) ways. Has anyone seen a decrease in buyout numbers for a first in man cancer drug? Me neither. Anyone that says this is only an $80 stock (4 billion) on positive data is lying to you. I have included an old post of mine for some perspective.

    1. Keytruda earnings roughly 15 Billion forecasted this year without much benefit for HNC. MK Phase 2 demonstrated tumors disappearing with a 3 week injection of MK.
    2. Geert has already talked about off label usage of MK (breast CA and melanoma)
    3. Pharmacyclics partnered 50/50 with J&J. Their first year revenue was 500M of which they made 250M for their half. They sold their HALF of the partnership to ABBV for 21 BILLION in 2015.
    4. Recently, IMMU sold to GILD for 21 BILLION essentially before any real revenue.
    3. Geert recently tweeted about ALXN buyout for 39 BILLION

    20B is the floor on this buyout, not the ceiling if MK repeats Phase 2. (20B/50M shares=$400 pps.)
  • S
    Stocks And Scotch
    I would sure hate to be short calls right now with ETRADE saying CVM
    is “in play”….

    The term "in play" refers to a firm that becomes a potential takeover target or puts itself up for sale with multiple bidders. When a firm becomes in play, news spreads about the potential deal. Speculation leads the share price to increase in value, making it much more volatile. Once a bid for the firm is made or a sale is possible, a company may attract additional bidders.
  • B
    Bob
    Form 8-K (excerpt)

    The Amdneded and Restated Underwriting Agreement contains customary representations, warranties and covenants of the Company, customary conditions to closing, indemnification obligations of the Company and the Underwriters, including for liabilities under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and termination and other provisions customary for transactions of this nature. The Company has agreed to not sell any of its securities for a period of 30 days from June 8, 2021 subject to limited exceptions.

    All of the Company’s executive officers and directors have also agreed not to sell or transfer any securities of the Company held by them for a period of 30 days from June 8, 2021 subject to limited exceptions. The agreement of the Company not to sell any of its securities and the agreements of the Company's officers and directors not to sell or transfer any of the Company's securities for this 30 day period will not apply after the Company publicly discloses the results of its Phase III clinical trial.

    1. Kingswood Capital can't short their purchase of 1.4 M shares for the next 30 days.

    2.) Comapny Officers can't sell for next 30 days unless results are released.

    3.) Data release before July 8th?

    Looking very Good!
  • A
    AL
    Here is my take on GK’s latest tweet regarding the raise. I am sensing a bit of frustration as if he is saying the P3 result is all that really should matter but unfortunately to run a company he has to take care of a bunch of other stuff that requires capital. In other words, the raise was not a hedge against P3 failure. It was to ensure we get there as a going concern in the event of further delays or unforeseen expenses. All my opinion.
  • S
    Stocks And Scotch
    CEL-SCI Announces the Closing of $31.7 Million Bought Deal Offering
  • S
    Stocks And Scotch
    🚨
    Under the terms of the Amended and Restated Underwriting Agreement, the Company granted the Underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 210,000 shares of common stock solely to cover over-allotments. The Company expects to receive approximately $29.3 million in net proceeds from the Offering (excluding the over-allotment option), after deducting underwriting discounts and commissions and estimated offering expenses

    The Company has agreed to not sell any of its securities for a period of 30 days from June 8, 2021 subject to limited exceptions. All of the Company’s executive officers and directors have also agreed not to sell or transfer any securities of the Company held by them for a period of 30 days from June 8, 2021 subject to limited exceptions.

    The agreement of the Company not to sell any of its securities and the agreements of the Company's officers and directors not to sell or transfer any of the Company's securities for this 30 day period will not apply after the Company publicly discloses the results of its Phase III clinical trial.
  • D
    David
    compelling and worth reading again

    https://dinhvesting.substack.com/p/cel-sci-cvm-the-big-day-is-coming

    excerpt: With a high probability of Phase 3’s positive data, an upside / downside ratio of 10-20x fundamentally, and potentially even more with a short squeeze, CEL-SCI is one of the most compelling bets ever seen.
  • M
    Mark
    NUGGET: "The Company has agreed to not sell any of its securities for a period of 30 days from June 8, 2021 subject to limited exceptions. All of the Company’s executive officers and directors have also agreed not to sell or transfer any securities of the Company held by them for a period of 30 days from June 8, 2021 subject to limited exceptions.

    The agreement of the Company not to sell any of its securities and the agreements of the Company's officers and directors not to sell or transfer any of the Company's securities for this 30 day period will not apply after the Company publicly discloses the results of its Phase III clinical trial."
  • S
    Stocks And Scotch
    Geert tweet : “Thank you to those who want change and support CVM. We raised money to eliminate risk other than the only risk that should matter: does Multikine help head and neck cancer patients? We have invested our lives and money, and we believe it will.”

    https://twitter.com/geertkersten1/status/1403445042321166336?s=21
  • A
    Andrew55
    I’ve been invested in this company for many years during which I had to endure constant dilution and then 10 for 1 reverse splits. I stuck with it however because I believed in the product. Geert did what he had to do to keep this company afloat. We are now near the end and I expect good news mainly because why would someone invest $22 million dollars if they didn’t have faith. For those have stuck it out just hang on.
  • z
    zookeeper
    This is actually a good news. An institution investor would like to buy 1 million CVM shares at only 5% discount is a vote of confidence. The share price was at below the offering price only a few days ago. Not bad at all
  • B
    Bob
    CEL-SCI Corporation – BIOMANUFACTURING FACILITY
    Case Study – Acquisition and Redevelopment (“Buy-to-suit”)
    Baltimore, MD

    Size
    76,785 square feet

    A single-purpose entity affiliate of BioRealty acquired and redeveloped this 76,785 of existing facility for use and occupancy by CEL-SCI Corporation – an emerging biotechnology company publicly traded on the American Stock Exchange (www.cel-sci.com, Ticker: CVM). CEL-SCI has and continues to manufacture a new and innovative immune-based head and neck cancer therapy within the facility. That therapy is currently part of an 880 patient phase 3 clinical trial that is being conducted in nine countries. This trial is considered the largest clinical trial ever done for head and neck cancer.

    The facility was acquired and redeveloped by BioRealty at a cost of approximately $22M. At completion, it was leased to CEL-SCI under a long-term lease. The building includes lab and office space as well as serves as CEL-SCI’s principal biomanufacturing location for this new cancer therapy. The project development team consisted of BioRealty and BE&K Building Group, LLC. That team made all efforts to accelerate the construction of the facility in order to expedite bringing this new cancer therapy to market.

    The project is located in an undisclosed location of Baltimore, Maryland – one of the primary U.S. life science markets. In addition to providing development management services, BioRealty executed and closed on all components of the financing for this project during a very difficult capital market environment; consequently, it is indicative of BioRealty’s unique ability to secure lease-backed financing for early-stage companies with complex facility requirements.
  • S
    Steely
    last offering people said the same thing as today "this is a bad sign, why wouldn't they just wait a few weeks for data and sell shares at $200 instead". well here we are still waiting for data, i guess they made the right choice
  • p
    paul
    Wouldn't 22 million in operating cash on hand strengthen their bargaining position with a potential buyer?
  • G
    George
    If you want a job in Equity Research of Biotech, the preferred background is a Ph.D., M.D., or other advanced life sciences degree plus a CFA. Most of the sell side so called analysts and paid crew of bears commenting on CVM lack the basic backgrounds to be credible. No names mentioned but you know who they are. Then there are scammers and misinformation specialists that are complete dotards. Binary event and long.
  • S
    Stocks And Scotch
    AMC was given an “in play” alert from etrade and then it ran 700%…. I find that interesting.
  • P
    Phil
    Food for thoughts
    The obvious reason for this cash raise is the belief that bringin multikine to approval can be achieved with secondary endpoints only, primary endpoint failing.
    CEO is anticipating the possibility of not being able to get cash with a more favorable share price in the future until approval.
  • S
    Stocks And Scotch
    Etrade has an “in play” alert for $CVM today.

    What Does "In Play" Mean?
    The term "in play" refers to a firm that becomes a potential takeover target or puts itself up for sale with multiple bidders.