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  • Getting Real About Electric Cars,  Batteries and Hype
    Bloomberg

    Getting Real About Electric Cars,  Batteries and Hype

    (Bloomberg Opinion) -- In the world of cars, investors seem to love news of partnerships, synergies and cost-savings as expensive tech upends long-held rules of the road. They may need a reality check.Auto companies across the globe are looking for their next green partner, even if they have their own grand plans for electric vehicles. But cautionary tales are emerging of why the best way into this brave new world – compelled by a regulatory push and sky-high Tesla Inc.-like valuations – may be to seize the wheel on their own.A quick check of how some hyped-up partnerships have fared couldn’t make things clearer.General Motors Co., which has made an aggressive push into electric vehicles, decided it was time to take an 11% equity stake worth about $2 billion in upstart Nikola Corp. Going by the risks in Nikola’s prospectus, this was a tie-up too far. Per the release, GM is giving “the in-kind services and access to General Motors’ global safety-tested and validated parts and components” — basically, most of the things Nikola needs to make trucks.Investors seemed to love the idea. Think: Traditional car company shows it has accessories for the future – electric and hydrogen. GM’s share price rose as much as 8% on the day. Nikola’s surged almost 40%. The Phoenix-based company would save $4 billion on battery and powertrain costs, the core of its business. GM would receive that much in benefits, between the equity value, electric vehicle credits, contract manufacturing, and supply of batteries and fuel cells.It doesn’t look like there’s that much value in it now, with Nikola under investigation and its executive chairman resigning. The stock has dropped almost 80% from its June peak, when it went public via a special purpose acquisition company. In fact, GM – like other car companies – is the one that likely needs the cost savings. Investors should wonder why. Sure, the Detroit giant was keeping promises. GM has said it has allocated $20 billion to electric cars and autonomous vehicles from this year to 2025. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra has laid out green ambitions in clear terms: “We want to put everyone in an EV, and we believe we have what it takes to do it.” It isn’t clear what additional value Nikola would have brought. Besides, of course, the innovation hype. Barra has said GM conducted “appropriate diligence” before entering the deal. Carmakers have been setting unrealistic targets for a while. In 2017, Volkswagen AG put out a plan to make higher-density batteries in three years, according to HSBC Holdings Plc analysts. Part of the program was to bring the cost down to $120 per kilowatt hour. Today, the price remains well above $140 per kilowatt hour, and the density is still lower.Even if banding together theoretically lowers costs, what happens to competitive advantage? Bottom lines? Cheaper batteries are great, but carmakers count on high margins from expensive cars. The facts are that the pressure to make better, safer batteries is rising, and they’re in short supply.Consider the volatile relationship between Tesla and Panasonic Corp. The latter (and its stock price) has had a rocky ride with Elon Musk’s whims. For all the hope the partnership has generated, the Japanese consumer products icon hasn’t made much money from it. After a few ups and downs, the companies penned a new three-year agreement in June in which Tesla buys a certain number of batteries and makes future investments. But, here’s the thing: Tesla is looking elsewhere, too.On Tuesday, Musk tweeted that he would also purchase batteries from several best-in-class manufacturers, like South Korea’s LG Chem Ltd. and China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., the world’s largest producer. Tesla has been looking for ways to jump-start its own battery manufacturing, reflected in the acquisition of Maxwell Technologies Inc. The biggest takeaway from Tesla’s much-watched battery day was Musk’s promise of a (much cheaper) $25,000 electric car and what that would do to reduce the price of its most important component.A number of other ventures exist in various forms: Volkswagen with NorthVolt AB, and with Guoxuan High-Tech Co.; Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. and LG Chem; Daimler AG and Farasis Energy Gan Zhou Co., LG Chem and GM. The list goes on. It’s unclear whether any will produce what the market needs anytime soon: an affordable and safe electric car with efficient batteries (ignoring all the other costs of ownership, such as charging infrastructure and resale price).What additional value, then, is there from partnerships? For whatever thoughts car companies may have of going it alone, battery makers are increasingly taking pole position. Some are beginning to break even. The top six account for more than 80% of the market and are pushing for pricing power. Whoever produces cars needs batteries. It’s still simpler for automakers to outsource them than go it alone. If partnerships are done right – with capital, manufacturing prowess and real, tangible results – they can succeed. Toyota Motor Corp. has been working with Panasonic for years. It recently set up a joint-venture company that could work well enough to seem boring. For now, investors shouldn’t be wowed by glitzy tie-ups and promises. Keeping an eye on where the real returns are — like actual cars on the road and batteries that take us further, and the companies making them — may serve better. (An earlier version misidentified Nikola Executive Chairman Trevor Milton as CEO and incorrectly stated that GM had sunk $2 billion into an 11% equity stake in the company. )This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Anjani Trivedi is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrial companies in Asia. She previously worked for the Wall Street Journal. For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinionSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Daimler Plan Marks Historic Shift to Electric Vehicles
    Motley Fool

    Daimler Plan Marks Historic Shift to Electric Vehicles

    Mercedes-Benz's corporate parent Daimler (OTC: DMLRY) said today that it will convert engine and transmission factories in Berlin and Stuttgart, Germany, in anticipation of production needs as its transition to electric vehicles (EVs) intensifies. Daimler said German labor unions are involved in the planning, and wrote in an emailed statement about the transition, "Mercedes-Benz is firmly determined to transform its powertrain division consequently and gear it toward 'electric first.'" The labor unions told workers that the plans will result in cuts of approximately 20% to the 18,500-member workforce in Stuttgart by 2025.

  • Green Bonds Should Have Green Strings Attached
    Bloomberg

    Green Bonds Should Have Green Strings Attached

    (Bloomberg Opinion) -- The bond market is finally finding its conscience. Egged on by investors, companies and countries are rushing to sell debt billed as helping to combat climate change or advance social goals. The impending arrival of the European Union in this area is an opportunity to address some of its early flaws.While greater environmental awareness is to be welcomed, linking it to finance requires a coherent structure. The idea behind these bond sales is that the proceeds are, at least partly, tied to action on sustainability. But the existing protocol — contained in tentative guidelines from trade body the International Capital Markets Association — allows plenty of room for interpretation. It would be better if there was a requirement for measurable results, instead of just painting debt in a different color.Covid-related and social-impact debt guidelines are particularly vague. While investors can push back on deals with flaky credentials, the job of vetting such sales probably shouldn’t be left to the market.The incentive to issue so-called green bonds is becoming clearer as surging investor demand makes them an increasingly cheap form of financing. Germany sold a “green” 10-year bund earlier in September. This now trades at a premium to the existing August 2030 benchmark which is identical in every other respect.That sale also encouraged German corporates to get in on the act. Daimler AG followed with a similar instrument that priced 13 basis points lower in yield than the carmaker’s existing debt of similar maturity. Likewise, Volkswagen AG sold eight-year and 12-year green benchmarks on Wednesday, around 14 basis points lower in yield versus the rest of its bonds. Over time this will become a significant saving for Europe's biggest corporate issuer, but shouldn’t it come with greater accountability?So investors will pay a premium — or rather "greenium" — to own these instruments. The green carrots are there. There also need to be some green sticks.A couple of recent deals point to the way forward. Take Wednesday’s eight-year sustainability-linked 1.9 billion-euro ($2.2 billion) deal from Novartis AG. It has an important feature — a potential 25-basis-points hike in the annual coupon in the last three years of the bond’s life. That would kick in if the pharma giant misses targets for increasing patient access in low-income countries by 2025. Last week, Brazilian paper company Suzano SA sold 10-year bonds in dollars with a similar penalty if emission targets are not hit.It can't be too much of a stretch for Europe to devise a regulatory framework imposing conditions on any new environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG)-related bonds, and to penalize any issuer that falls short of its stated prospectus aims.The EU is making green and social bonds a cornerstone of its pandemic Recovery Fund — with 225 billion euros planned, this will make it the undisputed green bond king, as this matches the total amount of green bonds globally last year. With the bloc yet to confirm its own guidelines on such debt, surely there is no better time to provide some clear leadership.This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Marcus Ashworth is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering European markets. He spent three decades in the banking industry, most recently as chief markets strategist at Haitong Securities in London.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinionSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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