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Discovery, Inc. (DISCA)
NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real-time price. Currency in USD
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Bottom line , I have 15000 shares of DISCA , after merger what # of WBD shares will I have , and what # will they be ?
On the S-4 on page 201 it says " J.P. Morgan using a selected range of discount rates of 6.00% to 7.00%. This analysis indicated an approximate implied per share equity value reference range for Discovery of $45.28 to $63.38 and an approximate implied aggregate equity value reference range for Discovery of $30.6 billion to $43.1 billion"
After the tax loss selling it should go up
Weird move today. Only news are the S4 filling which describes the WBD merger in detail. Everything in S4 is as expected to me and with the details now in public domain uncertainty as gone away, so I can't figure out what's going on with so much selling today - probably, shorts playing tom & jerry with weak longs.
What is the real answer here ? After merger 1 share of DISCA , is worth how many shares of WBD , and what # will they open at , that is my ?
Options expiry today...just had to close under 25 usd to shake the money out of retail traders pockets. It will be blasting into the sky again next week.
There is a big short in this position and that fund needs to exit before Q2 of 22, so they put a few big block sell orders in the morning and then buy back all day. It will work until the merger because of the lack of info from T.
If T actually set their dividend to $1.12 like they have proposed, then T would rally back to $26 or $27 and put a floor under DISCK. But hoping T shows any level of competence is akin to expecting a miracle.
Even when T has good news like the proposed compromise on the C-Band they mismanage the information and make it appear to be bad news. They are truly the most-incompetent large cap in the market today. But there is a silver lining - Warner and Discover are cheap because they are connected to T and once free next Q2, the sky is the limit.
To give perspective on how bad a spot the shorts have put themselves into, the short interest is "officially" -5%, but that was on 10-29. Today, that number is probably closer to 8%, including swaps, could be near 10-12%. While that number doesn't seem big, it's actually huge! Working with the 5% number, that's 25 million shares or 5 days of average volume (5 days to cover). If working with my unofficial number, a full 10-12 days to cover. That's if only the shorts are buying. Couple that with regular volume and you can see the position they're in. Now that the S-4 has been released, buying volume should start increasing dramatically, that will force all those greedy shorts to cover and propel the stock much higher. I'm seeing +$30 by the end of December and $40 by the time this closes. Any shorts that are continuing to hold on for a few more penny's are going to get hung out to dry...and I have no sympathy.
Share price is a bit too low to ignore! Time to reverse; along with atvi and viac
Right at the 50 day today! If I had to bet I’d say it will probably bounce here and head higher. Anything’s possible before the merger goes through tho but improving synergies on both ends the fundamentals are just insanely attractive at this valuation.
One thing the market likes is sub addition beats. I think Disc+ and HBO are both setting up for a good Q4 beat. Warner has HBOmax putting the Matrix out at Xmas time. Dune is nice book and movie, but the Matrix is giant compared to Dune.
And since it's at Xmas, there will be a lot of spare time to watch it. That should lead to a good sub bump and I'm looking for 5M HBOmax additions. (and they just went into 11 Euro countries, so that is a plus)
As for Discovery+, they are adding subs at a better percentage than every one else. So another 2M to 3M will be great, but when added to HBOmax could mean 7 to 8M subs. Those numbers are awesome and will be a 10% sub growth rate.
Currently, HBOmax is in the top 3 free downloads for both Android and Iphone. As we get closer to Xmas and the release of the Matrix 4, I expect HBOmax to get to #1 for both.
There are no guarantees, but another 7 to 8M subs will put HBO + Disc at close to 100M subs and getting closer to Disney's 116M. Disney gained almost more in market cap for Disney streaming than 2x what Warner-Discovery is worth.
That's the crazy part. Warner-Discovery would have a market cap of about $55B if it started trading today. Disney's market cap went up by ~$100M from Disney streaming alone.
Warner is much more than just streaming and makes a lot of money from Movies, TV productions, and Turner Networks. So for the entire market cap of Warner-Discovery to be at $55B as it approaches 100M subs is crazy. HBOmax is basically valued at a negative valuation. If Warner didn't have HBOmax, the stock would be higher. It gets an anti-Netflix discount.
I am happy that my 27.5 strike covered call expired today, but not so much when I can't open the next month's covered call with reasonable premium as the share price is dropping too fast!
Just skimmed over the S-4 filing and it's made me even more so excited about our near-mid term prospects!
David Zaslav, President and Chief Executive Officer of Discovery said, "We made great strides in the quarter operationally, financially and creatively. The team drove solid momentum in our direct-to-consumer business, which we grew to 20 million paid subscribers at quarter end on the strength of our global brands and fan-favorite content, including the Summer Olympic Games and Shark Week. Additionally, we delivered double-digit growth in both advertising and distribution revenues, as we doubled next generation revenues year over year. This strong performance once again drove very healthy cash flows during the quarter, further strengthening our balance sheet and financial profile. We are very excited about our pending merger with WarnerMedia and the opportunity to bring these two companies together, combining iconic and globally cherished franchises and brands, and positioning us to more efficiently drive global scale across the combined portfolio
Shorts are getting desperate. They're throwing all they have at stocks like this. They know there's only a few more weeks and their window is closed. December is going to push up hard. The numbers have been too good. Looking at a Santa Claus rally. If they dont make their money soon they'll be on the wrong side and sinking fast.
This is the normal morning dump from some hedge fund that is short. It happens on every morning there is good news. At this point it doesn't matter. By next June they have to cover because of the merger.
We know a few things - Discovery has 20M subs and HBO has 70M. Combined they have 90M and have close to the same US based subs as Netflix. Read that again - Discovery + HBO has the same US subs as Netflix. Netflix is worth $300B and Warner-Disc is worth $60B.
Also, Warner is 2x the size of Netflix because they also create TV and Movies for the world (#1 TV production studio, #2 Movie Studio) and they own Turner networks that brings in 4.1B in profit every year. Warner is a massive company besides for streaming, but with Discovery they will be very competitive for streaming and the numbers don't lie.
Where HBO is lagging in the international market. But that's why they are merging with Discovery. Discovery has a huge international viewer base of 210M people from their cable base. When HBO is marketing to those viewers I have a good feeling about how that international sub list will grow. Up until now , HBO has had basically zero international marketing. They have relied on Sky to carry their channel.
Whoever is short the 38M shares will eventually have to cover between now and June 2022. With only 3M shares trading daily, good luck!
But for now, they wil stomp on any rally with big block sales 5 minutes into the open. Ignore it and keep buying because this is a 2x stock by late next year.
Held above the 50 day moving average on a red day in the market. Hasn’t been above it since March 26 when it dropped 27%. Shorts must be sweating for sure now. Looks like it’s bottomed out. Anyone who’s been waiting to start a position until the trend reversed should definitely start their position soon.
Very interesting, I would not hold short after seeing the price action today. She's actually trying to push up a green candle by close. After days of ripping higher, it is due for some profit taking, but it just wants to grind higher. We see some volume with this and this stock will get away from the shorts very quickly.
To all intelligent shareholders, what do you recon will happen to discb? They will get one share in wbd per share owned. The price is much higher than disca and disck, so, will they be getting a cash compensation for losing the voting power? Have you read the disclosures? I’ve read the first few pages and will be reading a lot more today…. Any comments?
Green when everything was red
Discovery is ridicously undervalued. Great company with strong fundamentals, healthy balance sheet and more profitable than Netflix and other streaming services. This should be $40+
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