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Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. (ESPR)

NasdaqGM - NasdaqGM Real-time price. Currency in USD
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7.10+0.11 (+1.57%)
As of 03:56PM EDT. Market open.

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  • G
    Gary9912
    It’s all about the trial, if positive, the many many on the sidelines will quickly be jumping on the BA bandwagon, including lots land lots of new investors, which should lead to lots and lots of money.

    https://www.cureus.com/articles/106347-bempedoic-acids-use-as-an-adjunct-in-lowering-low-density-lipoprotein-cholesterol-in-patients-with-coronary-artery-disease-a-systematic-review
  • j
    james
    I am getting very concerned about the Esperion European distribution deal with Daiichi. After spending $300 million in milestone payments, and then investing many ten's of millions more trying to roll out a sales model, the drug still isn't selling in Europe. After all, if it were then Esperion would be getting more than $.5 million in royalties each quarter. I fear they may unwind this deal in short order. I hope it doesn't result in another lawsuit against Esperion management.
  • A
    Anthony
    Do you think the buy out will be $5b or $10b ? I’m starting to think $10b, as inclisiran was purchased for about that, will not have data out to 2027, and will have no material impact on business to 2028+ based on quarter report.

    Bempedoic Acid made it, finished a 5 year trial, and good data will propel this in every drs hands, with guidelines changed and then label shortly thereafter.
  • A
    Anthony
    Every day that passes gets us closer to the CLEAR outcomes data read out. That will be the inflection point and will be worth the wait. Not many companies can fund a 5yr 14,000 patient trial. ESPR made it and the data will speak for itself. Just need a little patience.
  • b
    bubba
    Always short the pop/. Every time . We told you for long time
  • A
    Anthony
    When data is released, could be in a few weeks, I suspect price will jump on good news well above $9 which is warrant price. Once this is exceeded, price jump is hard to predict.

    Buyout of ESPR is likely given BP global sales and marketing arms and the inherent value of Bempedoic Acid. With milestone payments of $1.2b to offset purchase price, it’s almost a given. I suspect Daiichi will be first up, followed by Novartis, MRK, Etc.

    $5b sales price is reasonable, but stock appreciation needed so all shareholders are content.
  • A
    Anthony
    If I can sit on ESPR at $3.5, I’m fine sitting on it at $6.7. Long term prospects only improve with each passing day, as we are closer to data release. The market demand and size will drive this much higher. 15% mortality and morbidity reductions are the target and very achievable by the trial design-ldl starting level of patients, statin intolerance, proven ldl lowering of BA, 4yr+ length, etc. Reduction of inflammation and blood sugar can only help but are not built into the 15% reduction target. Many analysts and investors want proof after getting burnt in the past, and I get that, but the risk reward for investing in ESPR is compelling. You can’t always follow the herd when investing.

    In 2-3 years, ESPR won’t be recognizable and will likely be purchased by Daiichi, Otsuka, Novartis, Merck, Lily, or other big players in the market. Heck, with $1.2b of milestone payments that are outstanding, it’s a no brainer.
  • G
    Gary9912
    Wow, bears having a blast here lately with the pull back from the recent highs, they seem to forget that this was in the 3’s in February with hardly any short interest, now the short interest has risen dramatically and they’re desperately trying to keep the lid on this thing. Well, bears, the time for honoring h yourselves will soon be at an end (Gladiator) . It’s all about the data now, not the fear you spread. Stock may be left for dead one day, but not yet, not yet…
  • t
    tullos
    I am staying far away from ESPR- It looks like it is going to drop off a cliff. I actually get way better stocks at www.expertinvestor.club
  • G
    Gary9912
    $ESPR 4th quarter sales should get a boost from these new recommendations but we know that it’s more about the positive trial results (this guy says end of the year 👀)

    2022 ACC Expert Consensus Decision Pathway on the Role of Nonstatin Therapies for LDL-Cholesterol Lowering

    New video talking about the new recommendations for ezitimibe, bempedoic acid and Inclisiran.

    https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/980362
  • G
    Gary9912
    I’ve often heard that Esperion created their Clear Outcomes Trial for success. Dr. Stephen Nichols (I believe) headed up this trial with Dr Nissen, another well resp https://pace-cme.org/2022/09/15/what-have-we-learned-from-previous-cetp-inhibitor-outcome-trials/ ected cardiologist. This Dr Nichols certainly knows about large outcome trials, just listen to him talk about some other outcome trials, the disturbing thing is, in a bunch of those trials that were showing no efficacy or lack luster results, they were stopped early, this trial wasn’t stopped early and it reached its 1620 events earlier than expected. This trial was setup for success and esperions financial future depends on them getting their 15% CV reduction to solidify their financial future. The Smart estimates came in around 20% from Professor Ray, not including considering the glucose reduction and the anti inflammatory benefits. If funds shorting this thing are clueless about the trials chances it could get ugly for them, I don’t care anymore about that, let the short interest grow larger, it will make for more of a pop if/when positive results get announced. Dr Nichols, Dr. Nissen, Professor Ray, Dr. Foody, pretty impressive company. Maybe not as impressive as Bubba, Big Boss, James, Shortall, and Curecancer but I’ll take my chances on the experts in the field of cardiology, not the experts in the field of short selling.

    https://pace-cme.org/2022/09/15/what-have-we-learned-from-previous-cetp-inhibitor-outcome-trials/
  • A
    Anthony
    The longs have been saying it for a while, but who in their right mind would want to be short prior to the data release, which literally can be any time from now to January 2023. A 5 year, unprecedented trial designed to show mortality and morbidity reductions for the first oral ldl approved medication in 20 years.

    To hope for a market down turn, perhaps dragging ESPR down a dollar, is not a sound investment choice. More and more articles, studies, upgrades, and recommendations will be released in the coming days. I have to think there are better opportunities to short with less risk.
  • L
    LIT
    Anthony. Thanks for your research and updates on ESPR. Rather refreshing to read your informative and insightful post's without the drama. I see that Esperion is having a R&D event on Nov. 9th. Not sure what's on the agenda yet, but hey, maybe an update on preliminary results from the trial? If not, soon...
    Cheers!
  • G
    Gary9912
    Interesting listen below (it’s under 3 mins) but this highly respected dr talks about ldl reduction and intense combination therapy, earlier the better!!! All good for BA, if I’m hearing this correct, also good for BA is where he says that ezitimibe, Inclisiran and BA and reduce CV risk just like statins based off of a formula per milliliter of lowering and previous randomized data from previous trials. Can anyone but Bubba and James give their thoughts on his comments ???

    https://twitter.com/thefhfoundation/status/1574496673585197057
  • A
    Anthony
    In the evaluation of the ASCVD risk reduction, the hsCRP-lowering activity of bempedoic acid should not be underestimated [38]. This inflammatory biomarker correlates significantly with clinical benefits for individual patients, as shown in the Canakinumab Anti-inflammatory Thrombosis Outcome Study (CANTOS) trial with canakinumab, a monoclonal antibody targeting interleukin-1β [39], as well as in statin trials where clinical benefit appeared to be maximal in the patients with the highest baseline hsCRP levels.

    Tick tock shorts. It’s just a matter of time.

    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11883-022-01054-2
    Purpose of Review The aim of creating an orally active non-statin cholesterol-lowering drug was achieved with bempedoic acid, a small linear molecule providing both a significant low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) reduction and an anti-infla
    Purpose of Review The aim of creating an orally active non-statin cholesterol-lowering drug was achieved with bempedoic acid, a small linear molecule providing both a significant low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) reduction and an anti-infla
    link.springer.com
  • C
    Curecancer
    I have read here a bunch of times to short every pop. If you had, you would be making great money daytrading this. Every pop is red day the following. Gives it all back and then some
  • g
    gerry
    It's holding its own. By end of the year, it will be much higher (at last in the teens).
    The closer we get to results, the faster it will go up. It has all the signs of upward movement.
    Very little downside.

    I'm hoping that 2023, they will get their milestone payments and be bought out.
    Looking at north of %50 pps
  • b
    bubba
    Does it finish at low of day yet again?
  • A
    Anthony
    Data release will exceed endpoint of 15% mortality and morbidity reduction because:

    1. CLEAR Outcome’s patients start on average with 139mg/dl LDL, which is higher than the 92 and 69 mg/dl levels of patients in other trials
    2. Absolute ldl reduction results in greater benefits to mortality/morbidity, and with a 139 mg/dl starting point, reductions should be substantial
    3. Patients mostly (80%+ I believe) are not on other treatments which will lead to greater reductions as many competing, failed trials included patients on other ldl meds.
    4. Median treatment duration is 3.8 years vs 2.2 years and 2.8 years of competing trials. Longer duration results in better outcomes with use of meds.
    5. 14,000+ patients take out statistical anomalies that could arise with smaller groups.
    6. CV patients are likely to be diabetic or obese, which the company believes are often “hyper responders” to its drugs based on Phase III studies “source: SA Aug article”
    7. CRP reduction of 18 to 33% in Ph 3 studies is not included in endpoint calculations. Other treatments see no benefit.
    8. Effect on glycemic control (A1c) in T2DM : 0.2-0.3% reduction in all T2D patients in Phase 3 studies vs no benefit from other treatments. This is not included in endpoint calculations
    9. Effect on weight: 0.8 kg reduction over 52 weeks in Ph 3 studies vs no benefit for other treatments. This is not included in endpoint calculations

    I personally believe results will far exceed 15% and drive the stock multiples higher. Any thoughts besides “the ceo sucks” , “look at the 5 year chart”, or “this is aways red”.
  • b
    bubba
    No pumpers anymore. What happened to ex Espr employee who talked about short squeezes?