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Energy Transfer LP (ET)
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I find it a bit funny that most everyone was saying that the distribution reduction was already in the stock value before it was announced. I would say that 3 straight days of a nose dive disputes that observation. There were many people posting on this sight stating that the distribution for safe for at lease this quarter. Amazing how many of us, ya I said us to include myself know so little about how to really take the pulse of this company. I would say the current pulse indicates a company still on life support. Not a sole on this sight has enough insider knowledge to know exactly how ET is going to utilize its cash influx due to this distribution reduction.
ET traded today at low of $5.03 after it broke support @ $5.26. Market and other midstream companies are all up. Yesterday Goldman raised it's price to $8 from $7 with a BUY rating.
WOW!! ET is trying to recoup today's losses. It has been very frustrating to own this stock.
I bought this at 8.21 average price. Should i hold or sell? All thoughts welcome.
I am buying more in the last few days. I will have less dividend but the company looks better with more cash and share price will go up. In the end, I may end up with more money due to appreciation of the stock price.
If you listened closely to the last CC, the cfo pretty muched stated that they were looking at cutting the dividend if they wanted to keep the rating agencies happy..
Someone doesn't seem to want "ET" stock drop under $5 per share. Several times now buyers step in. I say let the 4's do their thing. I'd sure add to my position on the cheap.
This is what you want to see out of ET next week...
EPS is irrelevant... as is revenue... although you want to see improvement over Q2... Q3 19 comparisons dont mean all that much...
What you should have laser focus on is the debt... did they come in at cash flow neutral... or at a point where Q4 is guaranteed to be neutral to positive....
If thats the case... they will have stopped draining the company of assets and adding to debt...
You see that scenario and this will go back to $6...
If they incurred further debt... and will not be cash flow positive until sometime in 2021... it will continue to flounder...
With the reduced CAPEX they could conceivably be close to neutral.... that being the case FCF in Q4 is guaranteed... and we are already 33% through Q4
Bought more ET today @ $5.66 based on Goldman Sachs recommendation that lifts Price Target for Energy Transfer to $8 From $7, Maintaining Buy Rating
The distribution cut should be a positive. I bought ET in Sept with a 50% distribution cut would be very possible. I bought this stock for a infinite period so not to pay tax on distribution. This is a welcome to a healthier balance sheet! Right?
With the units trading at these levels and the increasing FCF from project being completed we need to be careful that KW does not take the company private. He would only need around $11B and there is a lot of money around at super low rates
Im on the edge of my seat waiting for this to rocket up like we all know it will once they announce in earnings call that they are focused on paying down debt. Wall Street knows the share price is worth atleast twice its current valuation if debt paydown is current priority with stock buybacks starting next. This is the most sure thing out there besides Royal Dutch Shell
Blackstone owns 7% of ET. Blackstone also owns 32% of Rover. ET owns 33% of Rover. ET sold 32% of Rover to Blackstone in 2017 for $1.57 billion. NGP Energy Capital owns the remaining 35% of Rover.
I’ve just told you everything I know about Rover. Here is what I deduce. The 2017 Blackstone purchase and rumors last year of an ET Rover sale value ET's 1/3 interest between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion (pre-Covid of course). ET’s market cap is at $15.2 billion. Could the Blackstone/ET 65% portion of Rover really be worth $3 to $5 billion? It is not a trivial percentage of the overall market cap.
Of course, connecting the dots, is seems that Blackstone is very integral to the future of ET. Blackstone, very reluctantly I am sure, completed its acquisition of TallGrass in April. Could this be part of a bigger plan? And who is NGP Energy Capital? Are they a friend or foe to ET and Blackstone?
I've traded ET/ETP so many times over the years, I've lost count. This is the first time I've lost money on ET. Guess it was bound to happen sooner or later. I have to admit, the distribution cut really caught me off guard. Like Guns, I was going to sell into the ex div date, but not this time around. My shares numbered in the 5 digits and my cost basis this time around was 5.70. Way to much money to risk with a falling knife, sold into that small bump after open and took my losses.
ET has always attracted investors with its lure of high yield, but with that gone and its massive debt, there is not much left to attract investors. Now it is just one of many, with a lot of baggage.
To all of you on this thread thanks for the good times. I always looked forward to reading your comments, ET attracts a variety of personalities and its been entertaining to say the least. I truly feel sorry for those of you who bought high and now you've lost the only thing good this company had going for it, i.e, the distribution. My father is a retired, so I sympathize with you.
Best of luck to all of you.
I see a lot of political views being linked to the ET stock price. Political decisions have a major impact in centrally administered economies but have no impact in free market economies like the US. Free markets allocate resources in the most efficient way. I was just doing some research during 2012 NEE was a 20 B$ company and XOM was a 700B$ company. Today NEE is bigger than XOM. The reason I assume is the ROI and growth equation has changed so investors are willing to pay a much higher premium for Solar stocks. I still have my doubts about the ESG part of the equation. Jobs are getting slashed in O&G and jobs are being added in the renewable energy sector. We are getting to close to the point where investment in O&G is becoming attractive.
I bought 1,000 shares in a taxable account about a year ago for something like $10 per share.
I If I buy 1,000 shares today will I be OK to sell original shares for a loss by year end?
I always seem to end up with a wash sale when I try this.
Div cut was already priced in months ago. Panicked sellers down here are are being preyed upon. Look for a quick recovery. This is fabulous news for long term holders. They’ll be able to make short work of the debt reduction while still paying a handsome dividend. The debt reduction will increase equity value. That’s 1.6 billion in additional debt pay down per year on top of dramatic capital spend reductions through 2023. Once that’s done they will be able to buy back the company with less than 2 years of free cash flow. The company can initiate a buy back plan while raising dividends and still having FCF to expand smartly. Looking forward to the conference call to see the debt pay down schedule and guidance.
Hey there fellas, my name’s Kelcy and I’m a good ol country boy just like you. What’s that, I’ve destroyed $50bn in market value in just 3 years? No sir, I think it’s just them yankees picking on an honest American like me. You say EPD is trading just fine, oh well look over here at this distribution coverage over 2x...oh wait I mean 1.75x...better buy SEMG...golly gee it’s 1.5x now, I guess we better cut the dividend one more time for fun. But listen guys, it hurts me more than you. Look, look right here...I’m only bringing in $1 billion in cash instead of $2 billion this year. That’s gonna get me quite a bit of ribbin at the next billionaires banquet. Any who, I’ll keep talking in a mild mannered and somewhat confused tone and you folks remember that I wasn’t a bad manager...investors just don’t like average joes like you and me, with only 1 or 2 billion
Do states really want to loose this?
To date, Energy Transfer and the Dakota Access Pipeline have contributed more than $11.3 million in donations across the four states through which the pipeline traverses. These donations are separate from the $15 million that Energy Transfer gave to the state of North Dakota to help offset the costs the state incurred for the response to the protests.
And since the start of operation, the pipeline has been paying millions in property taxes to states each year. These tax dollars have been used to support schools, hospitals, emergency services and other critical ongoing needs. We remain an active member of the communities the pipeline traverses, which is a core aspect of our business
Everything is speculation until we see the earnings report, and any changes to debt. The cash infusion from Sun Oil remains so things are not dire. Now if KW was unloading shares, then you might think the sky is falling. The last I heard the distribution cut was not a forced event and could have been maintained. Perhaps some management prudence is starting to creep in.
EARNINGS next week given the 50% cut to the common shareholders, better be good. It's time this company provides great news, or does some serious house cleaning and post some NET GAINS PER SHARE.....
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