|Day's range||1.124 - 1.135|
|52-week range||1.0655 - 1.1496|
The Euro surged much higher during the trading session on Monday, reaching above the 1.13 level yet again.
The direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 1.1295.
Demand for risky assets in early trading on Monday weighed on the dollar, causing EUR/USD to advance about a third of a percent.
The pound fell against the euro but held its ground against the U.S. dollar on Monday as traders looked ahead to this month's Brexit negotiations and more government support measures expected later this week. Traders expect more clarity by the end of July on whether Britain will agree a trade deal with the European Union. Britain left the EU in January, but it has full access to the bloc during a transition that runs until the end of December.
Investor morale in the euro zone improved for a third month running in July but a dip in expectations suggests the recovery from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic could soon peter out, a survey showed on Monday. Sentix's index for the euro zone rose to -18.2 from -24.8 in June. Investors said they expected that only around 60% of coronavirus-related economic losses would be recovered within a year in the euro zone.
Daily forecast and trading signals of forex majors, commodities, cryptocurrencies and indices.
If the Fed’s balance sheet has been a key driver of risk sentiment, will this dynamic start to weigh on risk? It seems unlikely to cause too great a stir as we know the Fed have the capacity to turn the taps on any time. Also, put China CN50 on the radar as this index is on fire right now, where we saw sizeable inflows into Chinese A-shares on Friday.
Additionally, the AUD/USD pair gained 0.6% to 0.6979, helped by rising prices for copper and other export commodities. The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet on Tuesday for its policy meeting and is expected to keep its key rate at 0.25%.
If the U.S. and Euro Zone economic data continues to impress then look for a strong rally to develop on a breakout over 1.1295.
The Euro went back and forth during the week, forming another wick that extended higher. However, the most recent wick was lower than the ones preceding it.
The Euro drifted a bit lower on Friday, but with the Americans being away for the observed Independence Day, there would have been a serious lack of volume.
The move comes at a time when traders are seeking alternative sources of capital value during an "uncertain macroeconomic climate."
The dollar edged lower in early European trade Friday, with volumes hit by the U.S. holiday and traders weighing the conflicting influences of positive economic data and the increasing number of coronavirus cases. Economic data released earlier Friday pointed to a brisk pickup in the Chinese service sector, with the Caixin Services Purchasing Managers Index coming in at 58.4 in June, the highest reading in two months. “Fed money printing has now secured what seems to be a stable negative correlation between risk assets and the dollar,” said analysts at ING, in a research note.
European stock markets are set to open just higher on positive signs of a global economic recovery, but ranges will be tight with the U.S. markets on holiday and the number of coronavirus cases still mounting. At 2:25 AM ET (0605 GMT), the DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.5% higher, the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. up 0.2%, and CAC 40 futures in France up 0.4%. The U.S. accounts for around a quarter of the 10.8 million coronavirus cases recorded worldwide.
Service PMIs from the Eurozone will be in focus today. Away from the figures, expect the markets to continue to respond to the U.S NFP numbers.
Ireland's services sector shrank in June at its slowest pace since the coronavirus crisis began but underperformed the euro zone as a whole, a survey showed on Friday, reflecting the more gradual reopening of the Irish economy. Ireland's cautious steps out of a lockdown imposed from March left large parts of the services sector including hotels, restaurants, hairdressers and most pubs shut until this week, when their limited resumption largely completed the reopening. The AIB IHS Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) forservices staged a partial recovery as a result last month, improving to 39.7 from 23.4 in May and just 13.9 in April, but still well below the 50 mark that denotes growth.
The Euro rallied on Thursday, waiting for the jobs number to come out. It looked rather strong but gave up the gains after the better than anticipated number.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 1.1295.
EUR/USD has turned sharply higher after finding support near the 1.1200 although continues to hold within a broader range.
July brings us optimism on the market, which was pretty much expected after what happened on the global stocks at the end of June.
The EUR/USD has gained some bullish impulse after yesterday’s worse than expected ADP data. However, the pair is still bearish.
U.S. stocks are set to open higher Thursday, rallying ahead of the three-day weekend amid growing confidence of an economic recovery despite the resurgence of Covid-19 cases in many states. At 7:05 AM ET (1105 GMT), S&P 500 Futures traded 21 points, or 0.7%, higher, Nasdaq Futures up 45 points, or 0.4%. The Dow Futures contract rose 259 points, or 1%.