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Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed price. Currency in USD
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26.68-1.67 (-5.89%)
At close: 04:03PM EDT
26.68 0.00 (0.00%)
After hours: 07:59PM EDT

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  • C
    Celty
    Payday today. Nice to see my 401k buying on a dip for once.
  • H
    Highlowsel
    National debt at +$34T and growing like the weed it is. Corporate debt at all time highs. Consumer and credit card, the same. The Fed still not doing an effective job of QT'ing..yet. Official Inflation rate at ~8.5% so you're still getting a negative return in excess of 5% right now. We live in interesting times folks. And they're getting more and more interesting with every passing day. Session start, bid at $33.32. Let's see what happens next. G/L!
  • R
    Robert
    So think in terms of easy monetary policy....the market will move from the lower left to the upper right...what I believe we have finally come to terms with is a Fed that gives no sign of removing the restrictive narrative and this leads to upper left to lower right...until restrictive is removed we should anticipate that direction...guess not fighting the Fed holds it relevance in both easy and restrictive monetary policy
  • M
    MS
    The RIO CEO just downgraded the forecast for copper price in the near term citing some demand and supply chain issues. And in the same vein, he postulates that their offer for Oyu Tolgoi was final with no more increases! Classic positioning to buy companies at the lows! Everyone has an agenda! BHP is slated to raise its offer for Oz minerals!
  • D
    Dennis
    I was wrong about the direction the market would take after the Jay Powell press conference. I was a bit surprised to watch him “out-hawk" the hawks. The Fed's new median forecast (dot plot) projects the fed funds rate to rise to 4.4% by the end of this year, then 4.6% in 2023 -- higher than previous forecasts and higher than market expectations.

    These imply another 150 basis points, of rate increases that could include another 75 basis point hike for November (six days before the midterm elections), followed by 50 basis points in December and 25 basis points in February. These are the numbers that drove yesterday’s market declines. These are projections. The Fed still claims to be data dependent.

    Being right but wrong on timing is the same as being wrong. I’ve been wrong. I still believe that the "doom and gloom" recession forecasts will reverse before the last 60 days of 2022 and that the market direction will pivot. I don’t think the Fed wants to actually drive a healthy economy into recession, nor do they want to kill stock prices. I think China will commence economic growth, global supply chain issues ease, and the world will adjust to war in the Ukraine. (Btw, all of these reduce US inflation)

    It’s all about timing. If you own strong company stocks and are getting paid decent dividends to wait, I think you’re fine. If you’re trading the volatility, I wish you luck.

    (Reposted from earlier this morning to correct format)
  • R
    Randall
    Looks like the stock market has give in. The Fed late to the dance as stated by Powell the pain you will feel and we do feel and we do. The next 6 to 12 months will be rockie. I will be adding more stock today FCX, SCCO, Ford, Rivian, Nucor. Oxy, Chevron. Will buy to hold for 2 years will invest half today and half next week. Buy at your own rixk. Buy before Nov election when the Dem's loose the House and Senate markets will move higher at that time. Good luck.
  • H
    Highlowsel
    Hmmm....I'm thinkin'....I'm picturing.....Dow ending the session off 1K more or less? Not that far, now down 768....let's see how it goes....
  • m
    mac
    looks like parts of Ukraine are soon to be new parts of Russia. I spoke too soon. I guess Russia can keep Ukraine. should have known theyd do the old democratic "vote" trick.. why not? weve done it over here in the USA for years . nobody even cares anymore. we love our leaders. they're the best. 😂
  • C
    Celty
    Stocked up on toilette paper last week, so I'm prepped, so to say.
  • R
    Russ
    FCX buy at $26 then average down at 52wk low double bottom. Easy pezy.
  • R
    Randall
    Well looks like FREE money has caught up with all of us. Thanks Uncle Joe. Looks like a long ride to get back part of our money. The house and senate will change in Jan just maybe America can get back on track.
  • M
    MQS
    The FED under Powell has always been for stable growth with stable inflation. In 2018, they started raising rates as they were concerned that the projected 4%+ growth under the previous administration would overheat the economy leading to inflation! Now post the pandemic stimulus and supply chain snafu related inflation, they are raising rates to avoid 'growth at any cost'! The market realizes that earnings will come down if companies are not allowed to raise prices and hence, inflation should be persistent!

    The FED has clearly stated that the market is NOT the economy - and the market tantrums are not going to sway the FED. The market is a casino where the bulls and bears fight it out to line their pockets - that's a sham! @Randall, I did listen to Jeremy Siegel's interview in total this morning and he went on a rant on how Powell is missing what the market is telling him - wonder why one goes to B Schools at all. I always respected Siegel's viewpoints - but today he was on a total rant! Commodity prices are down - only because the financial institutions have decided to short the futures in anticipation of a recession - and then claim that copper price declines are indicating a recession is in the works!

    This. market tantrum will continue for a while as Dimon, Dalio, Gudalch and the rest of the financial guys keep at it with the FED led recession story... Silicon Valley's mega growth story has nose dived and Wall Street's darlings have been hurt.... so now they take everything to the woodshed... and when the pacifier of Powell's we are done for now happens - it will get back to some normalcy....

    As @Dennis points out - it is fine to hold companies with great balance sheets and cash reserves/flows while this volatility continues - I like the mindset of FcX, BHP, RIO and GLEN who are holding cash, buying back shares at lower prices, and providing decent dividends! All this scare tactic will lose its appeal soon!
  • R
    Robert
    Gonna look for some investment grade credit tomorrow with some longer maturities .....guessing something around 6-7% at the long end.....let's see....the money never left the market...it just went somewhere else....don't think a hedgie with good credit terms doesn't look at 2-3% spread with capital appreciation and security as a reasonable investment....let's see where inflows to corporate bond funds are going
  • B
    Bazillionaire
    Ultra, Absolutely saved many.
    The ones that didn't read his in depth postings & heed the warnings deserve the financial pain inflicted.
  • J
    Joe
    I wrote cover calls on my shares
    Oct 21s strike price 28 paid out 3.15dollars

    Monday to get out of it it would cost me 3.40

    Tuesday 2.96

    As of friday… 1.19!!
    Amzing less then 5 days
  • U
    Ultra
    Forward path for FCX leads to $20.

    Because things are NOT looking up for copper, contrary to the jibe from the futurist dreamers prattling on about EV magic, and the like....

    Ya gotta get to 2035 intact, first.......before you can be a pillar and do good things.

    Until then, enjoy the grind.
  • m
    michael
    SMS news..the leading metals information provider in China...Friday sept 23, 0257 cst...Chinese copper inventories dropped to 74300 mt..down 10400 from monday......lme sanctioned storage recieves 11000 mt friday and was sold on arrival......James Atwood Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance Sept 21 2022.."a massive shortfall will emerge for the world's most critical metal...a great copper squeeze is coming for the global economy."
    "...RA from fcx laments the lack of mine development to cover the copper shortfall.......copper inventories are currently being drained despite a weaker economy and the fear of recession....fridays drop in copper prices reflects a short sighted reaction to fear and not the new reality that copper is the critical metal for world electrification and its supplies are dwindling, even under current economic conditions
  • J
    Jesse
    we aren't too far from the lows. at these copper prices new mines won't come online. that will support the copper price
  • D
    Dennis
    I can’t handicap Wednesday’s Fed Decision any better than Alex Eule, in a piece for Barrons on Sept 19

    “The bears see stubborn inflation that leaves the Fed no choice but to keep lifting rates to force the economy into a significant recession. The bulls see much of the work as already being done, with the impact of this year's hikes still working their way through the system, meaning the Fed is close to the end of its rate cycle. A few of the wild cards are the labor market, the state of earnings, and the war in Ukraine.

    ……. The tone of Wednesday's press conference will be key to determining the market's direction by the end of the week. Stocks have rallied during the Fed chair's last four press briefings as Powell tried to balance rate hikes with confidence that the Fed was in firm control and still able to manage inflation without doing too much harm to the economy. His last four speeches have triggered gains of 2.2%, 3.0%, 1.5% and 2.6% for the S&P 500."

    Adding my own two cents, I think that the Fed governors' public comments following the CPI's 20 basis point (.02%) "miss" may have had more negative market reaction than anticipated. Since then, corporate announcements by Federal Express and others have hinted at recession.
    The 75 basis point rate hike is "baked in" After that, the Mr Powell will look to maintain some balance.
    It should be a good week for stock investors.
  • U
    Ultra
    Europe upstages China as main driver for copper outlook
    Reuters
    By Pratima Desai
    Sept 20, 2022

    Excerpts:

    LONDON (Reuters) - Shrinking copper demand in Europe due to a manufacturing recession caused by the energy crisis will dominate market sentiment for some time with prices likely to retreat towards two-year lows early next year.

    Copper prices typically react to the ebb and flow of demand in China, which accounts for half of global consumption estimated at around 25 million tonnes this year.

    But this time the focus is on Europe, accounting for 15%-20% of global demand for copper used in power and construction.

    "It would be rare to see an outright decline in demand, but I think that's what we are going to see in Europe over the next 3-6 months," said Citi analyst Max Layton.

    "There will be a very substantial seasonal surplus between December and March, the combination of which is going to bring copper down to 6,600."

    Benchmark copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell to $6,955 a tonne in July, the lowest since November 2020 when COVID lockdowns hit manufacturing activity around the world.

    MARKETS TODAY

    UKX
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    NMX
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    AIM1
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    ASXXCTD
    ▼ 0.00%

    By Pratima Desai

    LONDON (Reuters) - Shrinking copper demand in Europe due to a manufacturing recession caused by the energy crisis will dominate market sentiment for some time with prices likely to retreat towards two-year lows early next year.

    Copper prices typically react to the ebb and flow of demand in China, which accounts for half of global consumption estimated at around 25 million tonnes this year.

    But this time the focus is on Europe, accounting for 15%-20% of global demand for copper used in power and construction.

    The region is facing surging gas and power prices after energy supply cuts, which Russia blames on Western sanctions over the Ukraine conflict. The European Union has made proposals to impose mandatory targets on member countries to cut power consumption.

    "It would be rare to see an outright decline in demand, but I think that's what we are going to see in Europe over the next 3-6 months," said Citi analyst Max Layton.

    "There will be a very substantial seasonal surplus between December and March, the combination of which is going to bring copper down to $6,600."

    Benchmark copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell to $6,955 a tonne in July, the lowest since November 2020 when COVID lockdowns hit manufacturing activity around the world.

    Graphic: LME copper prices: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/jnvwemdxmvw/aaaa%20LME%20copper%20prices.PNG

    Macquarie analysts expect a copper market surplus of 691,000 tonnes in 2023 from a 162,000 tonne deficit this year. They expect global refined copper production at more than 26 million tonnes in 2023.

    "The economic outlook ex-China has worsened, particularly in Europe due to the ongoing energy crisis," said Macquarie analyst Marcus Garvey.

    "We do not think China will be able to offset the slowdown elsewhere. Inventories will build next year, but how much will be visible is difficult to say."

    Copper stocks in LME and CME Group registered warehouses and in those monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange are visible and total around 189,000 tonnes.

    Low stocks in exchange warehouses have supported copper prices, while worries about supplies on the LME have also created a hefty premium for the cash over the three month contract.

    Invisible inventories include those held by producers, traders and state stockpiles such as those held by China.

    Modelling by Citi analysts shows invisible stocks outside China could total around 500,000 tonnes.

    "We see an adequate inventory buffer to bridge the gap between now and a more pronounced demand slowdown as potential recession in Europe plays out over the winter months," Layton said.

    https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/akvezbwogpr/aaaacopper%20market%20balance.PNG

    =======================================================================================

    Macquarie and Citibank have coughed up some good analysis of the copper market for the next several years, and are finally talking about private producer/factory inventory of copper.

    You should take a look.

    This is accurately predicting the reality in front of the copper market (slowing demand in China and Eurozone, coupled with more supply output, imminent).

    Not the typical nonsense put forth by Goldman or other lunatic copper bulls who haven't done their homework......