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Golar LNG Limited (G2O.F)

Frankfurt - Frankfurt Delayed price. Currency in EUR
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11.30-0.20 (-1.74%)
At close: 8:05AM CEST
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  • m
    martin
    GLNG states, in morning PR, that it secured a 1-YR TCE for $100,000/day rate....

    __________________
    Shipping:

    Golar has recently secured a 1-year fixed time charter for one of its carriers. This will generate approximately $36.5 million of revenue. The seasonal and cyclical strength of the LNG carrier segment remains encouraging. Increasing price arbitrages between LNG trading basins is driving up LNG freight rates in the short term. Increasing demand for LNG freight together with new environmental regulations impacting effective supply of LNG carriers from 2023 add support to the medium and long-term outlook. Charterers are increasingly looking for longer term charters to secure shipping availability.
  • m
    martin
    GLNG PR today announced that they have locked some of their (new) Q12022 Hilli production at current high market LNG rates...They are showing good sense here, and demonstrating the positive leverage in their HILLI operations to rising energy prices

    ___________

    FLNG Hilli – Hedged part of TTF linked production for Q1 2022:

    Golar is pleased to announce that it has entered into swap arrangements to hedge part of its TTF price exposure for the incremental 0.2 MTPA train 3 production for Q1 2022 at a TTF price of $28/MMBtu. With TTF gas prices averaging $28/MMBtu during Q1 2022, the additional capacity utilization is expected to realize $21.2 million of Net Income to Golar for the quarter. This implies a gross tolling fee of $11.4/MMBtu for the incremental production. For each $1.00/MMBtu change in TTF, Net Income realized by Golar will increase (or decrease) by $0.4 million for unhedged volumes during Q1 2022.

    Golar is also realizing increased Net Income from the Brent link component of production from trains 1 and 2. Golar’s realized share of Net Income increases by $2.7m for every $1/bbl that Brent is above $60/bbl. Assuming the current oil price of approximately $83/bbl for 2022, Net Income realized from the oil derivative will be approximately $15.5m for Q1 2022 or $62m for the full year.
  • m
    martin
    High energy prices in Q4 and Q1 will be a boon for GLNG.

    First, Oillinked HILLI will yield $15M additional income per quarter, with Brent at $80.

    Second, NG linked expanded HILLI in 2022 will $20M yield additional income per quarter, with Dutch TTF at $29m- it’s current FFA through March 2022.

    Third, high LNG will accelerate FID on expansion of Tortue, and the need for two FLNGs.
  • m
    martin
    Big jump in NFE (now +24%) today helping GLNG.

    NFE jump tied to their call to investor today announcing they are long LNG cargoes (not short as many feared), and they are selling those in a hot market place, the tune of $200M additional Q4 revenues.
  • m
    martin
    Some excellent 1-hr conversation from GLNG, FLNG, Marian, and GLOP CEOs on the prospects for LNG shipping..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPI7-WqfAuo
    2021 13th Annual New York Maritime Forum - LNG Sector Panel
    www.youtube.com
  • F
    Francis
    Golar LNG - REFINANCING NEWS !!!!!
    Termed out, upsized by 100mm and reduced rate on the
    $NFE
    loan facility. (40% LTV currently)
    Termed out, upsized by 78mm and reduced rate on the
    $GLNG
    Tundra loan facility.
    Grew Liquidity by 178MM until Sept 2025 and saved ~125 bps.
    Hired European Banks to refi the $390mm CVT debt due in 1Q 2022 - should be easy refi with current market dynamics and LIFT big hurdle to stock price.
    REMINDER
    Market cap $1.37B and underlying biz V STRONG
    As of August 15 had $1billion of Cash and Public securities
    As of Sept. 16 slide deck they said EBITDA could grow to $589mm from $190 LTM by start 2024
  • F
    Francis
    GLNG Mgmt finally acting like adults. They have 1B of cash and public securities and a 391mm Convert due in 1Q 2022. Instead of getting "bent over" like old times they
    1- Raise additional liquidity of 178MM w/ reduced rate and extend maturities from existing banks to prove they
    2- Rumor to have buyer of Shipping biz but instead of getting worked b/c they "have" to sell they shop it a bit AFTER getting Liquidity so they control own fate.
    3- Hire Investment banks to do dog and pony show "to raise $400mm Unsecured Bond to refi Cvt" while also telling a much improved equity story mid QTR and hopefully generating new buyers of stock.

    3-
  • m
    martin
    The overlooked leverage of Hilli income to high oil and NG prices.

    The futures curve for TTF would imply that the additional 20% production in T3 beginning January 2022 would generate about $50M annual EBITDA in 2022 .

    The futures curve for Brent implies that T1/T2 oil linked contract would generate $45M in annual EBITDA in 2022.

    Suddenly, the leverage to high energy prices is about to payoff. Note that these additional income streams come at no additional cost of operations - all bottom line income, and these would contribute $1/sh in FY22.
  • W
    Winston
    GLNG is fighting the market tide. Perhaps a sales of GLNG's ships in the near term, which would be excellent timing, is the next catalyst? The last sale of assets to NFE was done in desperation. This time GLNG could get full value.
  • F
    Francis
    Great roadshow today from GLNG mgmt. Huge participation form investors and back to back 1:1 meetings. I was happy with slide deck and questions from investors. I expect deal to price by Thursday and at ~ 6.75-7% worst case
  • m
    martin
    GLNG pursuing a 4-YR unsecured Bond, to replace its $400M Convertible Note, due February.

    They better hope that there aren't any market turmoils in the coming weeks, before getting such
    a deal done. We all know about their impeccable timing....BTW, they also announced several positive re-fis that gives them access to roughly $100M+ of additional debt capital.

    _________________
    Golar LNG Limited (the “Company”) has mandated DNB Markets and Pareto Securities as Global Coordinators and Danske Bank and Nordea Markets as Joint Lead Managers to arrange a series of fixed income investor calls commencing on October 4, 2021. A USD denominated 4-year senior unsecured bond issue may follow, subject to, inter alia, market conditions. Net proceeds from the bond issue will be applied towards the refinancing of the Company’s outstanding convertible bonds maturing in February 2022 and for general corporate purposes.
  • m
    martin
    GLNG like to be acquired by Private Equity funds, just as GLOG and TGP.

    And, at a share price far below book...maybe $14-$15/sh tops
  • m
    martin
    This With NG prices so high (and LNG likewise), a company with assets and ideas in the upstream portion of the chain - like GLNG - should be thriving.

    It may very well be that we are about to hear from management several new contracts, either secured or likely - for their FLNG technology.

    I continue to believe that were it not for the tie to NFE, GLNG would be closer to $15/sh now rather than $10/sh.
  • m
    martin
    $300M Four-Yr Bond financed at 7%, fixed. Thats a pretty high rate, but a better option that other modes of refinance. Presumably the convertible would have been much more expensive if simply refinance via other bank credit facilities.

    TSLA recently issued a 4-yr Bond at 5.3%.

    FORD recently issued 4-YR Bonds (Junk) at 9%

    So, GLNG bonds may be a bit better than Junk, but I haven't seen their credit rating.
  • m
    martin
    Huge jump in Spot rates for TDFE carriers today, per Fernleys.

    Now indicated at $120,000/day.

    No change in the 1-yr rates, still about $93,000/day.
  • F
    Francis
    @ Martin here are my thoughts vis a vis TGP takeout. TGP has two other business lines and owned 41% of TGP...I spoke to IR and they felt that getting 9.5x EBITDA for that unit was fair value in a very volatile shipping market and allowed them flexibility to focus on TK and TNK. By the way...I think our shipping biz can easily do 275mm EBITDA so if we sold at 9.5X less 1.1B of debt that's worth $15.9 bucks a share or +2.5 from today's open
  • M
    Max
    I'm not familiar with GLNG, but by comparison its fundamentals look stronger than FLNG. Can anyone post an opinion on which company offers the best management and opportunity? Thanks in advance.
  • F
    Francis
    $GLNG What is JUST the BP contract worth to Golar LNG shares....151mm/yr gteed for 20yrs is $3.02B If i discount back at 4% the PV is 1.378B which is entire GLNG mkt cap....hmmmmmm
    Still have 10 LNGC Ships, 9% of $NFE stock, 24% of Avenir LNG and $300mm Cash
  • W
    Winston
    HOUSTON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Asian spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose this week to their highest seasonal level on record, as European buyers competed with the East for limited world supply.

    The average LNG price for October delivery into Northeast Asia LNG-AS was estimated at about $20.10 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), up $0.20 from the previous week, industry sources said.
  • m
    martin
    Will the Financial Turmoil unfolding in Asia adversely affect GLNG's ability to refinance its $400M Note?

    This company has the uncanny ability to find itself in the middle of all manners of untimely events (sometimes within its control, sometimes not..) that adversely impact its ability to move forward...