Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC)

JP Morgan has updated their projections, post Inflation Reduction Act:

Our FY24[GNRC] EBITDA goes to $1,515mm and revenue to $6,264mm, from our prior
estimates of $1,493mm and $6,167mm, respectively. Our updated Dec 2023 price
target is $421, from $415.

Called last week (Costco) for GNRC generator evaluation. 6 Weeks before they come out. Installation: Sometime in 2023 ! ! I see adds everyday on TV.
Yes the p/e is somewhat high, but growth pretty much guaranteed for years. AND - the grid will be becoming more unstable for years.

So bought my first 1000 shares this week. Would like another 1000 cheaper before next qtr announcement.

I was right but I was wrong. Bet big on good earnings and a beat to Wall Street expectations. Earnings did indeed come in very strong, record setting. The run up to the CC was very good.

Was totally wrong on PPS action. Although PPS up 8% just after ER, it tanked after the market opened and is in free fall as panic selling occurring.

Jagdfeld and the BOD continue to disappoint. Nothing said about potential of distributions. Nothing said about a buyback despite 52 week lows. Wall Street disappointed again as GNRC again shows they care little about shareholders. The funds are now exiting and that selling is accelerating.

Shorts have huge leverage at nearly 10%. They too are flexing their muscles.

The “perfect” storm for shorting.

I didn’t see that coming.

Will hope for a dead-cat-bounce and then begin to leverage down.

Until Jagdfeld is gone, I see little hope.

I don't see a lot of institutional shorting, just a whole lot of small trades going through. Some of those are profit taking, and a few stop losses. If you get excited about a move down that erases one week of gains, then you are getting worried for no reason. The power grid in the U.S. is so fragile that any event imaginable could happen. More and more people are beginning to realize how important preparedness is. Generac will continue growing for many years to come. The factors that are contributing to this growth (the growth of disaster triggers) will not dissipate. Generac has the best reputation in the business. The "Spruce Gooses are worried and they should be after another great ER......one of "those events" may happen any day and Generac could be at $500.00 again in a heartbeat. I'm very long with 1K shares.

Generac press release (NYSE:GNRC): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.99 beats by $0.36.
Revenue of $1.29B (+40.2% Y/Y) beats by $30M.
Adjusted EBITDA was a record $271M, or 21.0% of net sales, as compared to $218M, or 23.7% of net sales, in the prior year.
The Company is maintaining its full-year 2022 net sales growth guidance of approximately 36-40% compared to the prior year on an as-reported basis vs. estimated growth of 38.35% Y/Y. Adjusted EBITDA margin, before deducting for non-controlling interests, is still expected to be approximately 21.5-22.5%.