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Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)

NasdaqCM - NasdaqCM Real-time price. Currency in USD
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7.50+0.12 (+1.63%)
At close: 04:00PM EDT
7.95 +0.45 (+6.00%)
After hours: 07:41PM EDT
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  • J
    Joseph
    Big stock price bump today due to the announcement that the "Second Silicon Metal Furnace at the Selma Facility" has restarted and adds "an incremental 11,000 tons of annual silicon metal capacity dedicated to the domestic market in the United States".
  • R
    Robin
    GSM is the "baby in the bathwater" today. I would have thought after Q1's blockbuster that pointed to P/E <2X and outlook for self-help (dividends/buybacks) in Q3 or Q4 GSM's stock would find a new plane. If we have to then we just have to sit until Q2. It will be very hard to fathom GSM not finding that new plane once Q2 is announced. That is because GSM can point to being net debt free in Q3 and then self-help can then start in Q3 or Q4. GVM will want to see a dividend to support their finances and a buyback will help them increased their majority ownership after first having to sell some shares in Q1 due to (what appeared to be) their financial needs.
  • S
    Sophie
    Intel's CEO on Bloomberg yesterday!

    (If only he name-dropped GSM.)

    www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2022-05-23/intel-ceo-expects-semiconductor-shortage-to-last-video
  • S
    Sophie
    I can't believe we're back in the 6s! It is a chance to buy ever more stock though for what it's worth! :D
  • J
    Joseph
    UP DAY TOMMORROW? On May 17, 2022 Columbine Capital Services, Inc. upgraded FERROGLOBE ORD SHS from 2 to 1.
  • g
    ganderwing
    Seriously we are sitting on a PE of 2? What other company is going to have earnings equal to half it's stock price? Beside AMR and GSM. The lack of sellers is telling all that we are at the bottom with no where to go but up from here. Hold onto your shares tight and we will see an easy double in 3 to 6 months.
  • R
    Robin
    GSM trading very low volume. This is good. Shows lack of sellers. People should be happy to buy even at $10 a share. Just need more people to discover this stock.
  • R
    Robin
    NEO Battery Materials (TSXV:NBM) signs MOU with Ferroglobe for silicon anode technology (This was July 19, 2021). Investors do not understans that GSM is working on breakthrough ttechnologies for EVs.
  • P
    PriceCycles
    From the analyst that has a $14 price target on GSM:
    Results and forward commentary reinforce our thesis, allowing GSM to de-risk its
    balance sheet & asset base with further optionality around structural change-cost
    reductions. GSM reported record adjusted 1Q22 EBITDA of $241MM, exceeding
    our $219MM forecast and the upper end of our $198-240MM sensitivity range.
    Momentum continues near-term according to GSM, which we believe will benefit
    from high metals pricing that outweighs inflationary costs.
  • P
    PriceCycles
    Analyst report: We are comfortable with our 1Q22 EBITDA of
    $219MM (vs. 4Q $93MM), with our sensitivity suggesting a range of $198-240MM.
    We believe results can be a positive catalyst for the share price, potentially
    confirming GSM’s earnings power for fringe investors. We maintain our Buy and
    $14 PT.
  • R
    Robin
    Good morning GSM longs. Nice start to the week. GSM is one of the most undiscovered stocks in the market. The move this morning is likely the consequence of some new eyeballs learning about it over weekend and deciding to buy. I mean who wouldn't want to own some if they truly understood what GSM was all about? 2022 EPS likely $4 (with Q2 stronger than Q1 so even more momentum). Net debt free by Q3. Likely a dividend (and share buyback) starts then. And EV is huge for SiMe just in terms of EV volume growth - than add in possible increased use?!
  • J
    Josef
    we will see big rebound in indexes - and GSM will see finaly double digits again. Was about the time :-)
  • J
    Jeffrey
    Asterisk Advisors : "Silicon producer Ferroglobe had a massive 1Q22 generating $241MM Of EBITDA (compared to $185MM for all of last year), and they are likely so see similar results in 2Q. The Company has $518MM of debt and $344MM of net debt and with LTM EBITDA of $405MM, leaves net leverage less than 1x. The Company is likely to call its $60MM 1L Super Senior 9% notes at par (available through October 2022) with excess cashflow. Then, we expect GSM to target its 9.375% 2L notes which traded yesterday at 100 and can be called in late July at 104.6875. We see this as very attractive YTC paper.
    The stock is trading at a net TEV of ~$1.6B or 4x LTM EBITDA, and may have some support given the strong outlook for 2Q22. $GSM"
  • R
    Robin
    Tesla To Revolutionize Use Of Silicon In Batteries: Slash Costs, Increases Range
  • g
    ganderwing
    This should put us on track for an easy $3 EPS this year. So right now we are sitting with a Forward PE of 2. We should at least have a PE of 7-10. Just 7 takes us to 21 per share!
  • R
    Robin
    I am back in GSM in SPADES! All of my coal companies reported and been very good, especially for ARCH and AMR. CEIX solid too. BTU was a bit of a letdown, but all due to things out of their control and some optics that investors do not properly grasp. Notwithstanding, I trimmed my coal holdings - though not BTU and only my big winners since adding to last quarter after having trimmed by GSM (though still own a lot of coal as my favorite sector). GSM has always remained one of my favorite stocks long-term (and was my #1 favorite before I got into coal in a big way late last year), but I only trimmed because I wanted to play the coal trade for Q1. I did not expect to buying GSM below where I trimmed after their Q4 results and run to above $9.00. I cannot beleive it is below $7.00. I only wish the best for all GSM longs (regardless of my position) and can only hope those that did not trim and just holding will see the break-out we are all looking for when GSM reports Q1 next Tuesday night. SiMe prices in Europe remain solidly above $2.00/lb. I get weird info on N.A. prices. I read on this board prices like double Europe, but I see other sources that are lower (but all sources well abve $2.00/lb). GS's Q4 SiMe price averaged $1.35/lb and no reaon to believe it will be less than $2.00/lb in Q1. The cost of coal prices already high in Q4 (DBCT met Q4 averaged $350/tonne. Sure it is $500/tonne now so there will be some higher costs, but not a big number - especially as GSM mines some of its coal requirements. So even if one assumes higehr costs I am guessing maybe it is $0.15/lb higher at most - yet the relaized price is likely at least $0.65/lb higher. Q1 should be a blow-out. I conservatively guess 2022 EPS of $2.00, but think it could actually be $3.00 (I just can't see all of the underlying assumptions). Important to note GSM's N.A. facilities have huge electricity cost advantage over competitors in China and Europe (in general). And in Europe, Norway is an exception with low-cost electricity due to hydro and SiMe has MnSi plant there. South Africa used to be a higher cost producer, but not now given electricity prices there, while up, is way below most of the world. And to make things even better, I saw Spain has an agreement with the EU to cap electricity prices at 50/MWh. I said: "Say what?". GSM does not need that as it looks like they structured their sales to relfect changing Spainish electricity prices, but it certainly makes things better.
  • P
    PriceCycles
    From the call:
    1. Ratings agency upgrade will come, they are working on that.
    2. Silicon metal powerder for batteries, New details are coming shortly and this will be an important part of the FerroGlobe story in the future.
  • R
    Robin
    Here is some simple "back-of-the-envelope" math about Q1 expectations.

    I feel comfortable using a Q1 SiMe price will be at least $2.00/lb given benchmarks have easily averaged more than $2.00/lb since going back to Q4/21. If I assume Q4 averaged $2.00/lb for SiMe and left everything else stagnant:

    Q4 SiMe shipments = 63,681 tonnes = 140,352 pounds
    Q4 SiMe average price = $1.34/lb.

    If price was $2.00/lb = $0.66/lb uplift = $92.6 mm

    Pro-forma EBITDA = $185.4 mm (Q4 $92.8 mm + $92.6 mm)

    Pro-forma EPS = $0.82 (Q4 $0.35 + $0.47 based on 5% tax rate - low due to tax-losses)

    Sure, some costs may have risen, especially coal (though GSM prodcues a lot of its own coal) and likely labor rates.

    But Spain electricity prices were flat Q/Q. Selma had more output in Q1 (more volumes and at low costs and into a high-priced U.s. market) and assume no improvement in FeSI profits despite some low fixed-priced contracts in 2021. So I will be fine if everything else nets out to even. Then I have GSM making more than $3.00/year. There are a lot of things I cannot see (GSM tends to be opaque), but simple math should get you 80% of what you need to know. Would I be disappoined if EPS was "only" $0.65? No, I am fine with that as that is $2.60 annualized. Would I be thrilled, but not surprised if it was $1.00? Of course, but not counting on it and you do not need to.

    Can't wait for Wednesday!
  • R
    Robin
    GSM press release alludes to Q2 being stronger. That is because Selma's first furnace was not fully up yet and there was a transport strike that negatively impacted volumes. So higher volumes and profits in Q2. Say EPS of $1.00. GSM will add another load of cash. If Q3 is similar then GSM would be about net debt free. WoW! From nearly kaputz in 2020 to being net debt free in a couple more quarters?! What a turnaround. It makes even more sense GSM would declare a dividend with Q2 report (as that would be paid in Q3 anyways). As GSM nearing debt free status I think they sould have a $0.20 quarterly dividend and that leaves them with tons of cash to do other things like expansion or acquisitions.