284.70 +0.45 (0.16%)
After hours: 5:04PM EDT
|Bid||285.01 x 800|
|Ask||285.40 x 800|
|Day's range||279.40 - 285.87|
|52-week range||231.23 - 385.99|
|Beta (3Y monthly)||1.47|
|PE ratio (TTM)||111.91|
|Earnings date||16 Oct 2019|
|Forward dividend & yield||N/A (N/A)|
|1y target est||368.63|
Disney's introduction of subscription video service Hotstar to international markets could pile even more competitive pressure on Netflix (NFLX).
Breaking down some of Tuesday's major Q3 earnings results from giants such as JPMorgan Chase and UnitedHealth. A look at what to expect from Netflix's third quarter financials Wednesday. And why Lululemon is a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) stock...
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Netflix (NFLX) has fallen off its high horse over the past 3 months of trading. Shares have fallen a sizable 22% since its disappointing 2nd quarter earnings.
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Working in the media can be lots of fun, but it hasn’t been the greatest place to build a career over the past two decades. Employment at print publishers has plummeted with the rise of the internet, and broadcasters have downsized too. The jobs created in new media, which in Bureau of Labor Statistics’ employment data fall mostly in the ungainly category of internet publishing and broadcasting and web search portals, come nowhere close to making up for the losses elsewhere since 2000.Still, there is one old media sector that has been holding up just fine: There are 11% more jobs in motion picture and sound recording industries in 2019 than there were in 2000.It sure isn’t the music business that’s driving these gains: according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment in the industry is down almost 40% since 2001. There has been an increase in employment in motion picture and video exhibition, which may in part be due to the rise of more labor-intensive movie theaters that serve alcoholic beverages and nice food.(5) But most of job gains have come in motion picture and video production. In other words, Hollywood!The numbers above understate the total employment effect, as more jobs in motion picture and video production also mean more jobs for accountants, carpenters, caterers and all sorts of other people. And while we call it “Hollywood,” lots of the jobs are actually in New York, Atlanta and other locales.But it’s the trajectory that interests me here. Why has film and TV production held up so much better than other legacy media industries? And what’s up with that rise in the 1990s, the long flat stretch after 2000, and the rise from 2013 through 2017?In answer to the first question, Hollywood catered to a national, even global audience almost from the beginning, and thus hasn’t suffered from the collapse of local media business models in the way that newspapers and parts of broadcasting have. Relatedly, it also wasn’t so advertising-dependent, and thus has been less vulnerable to Facebook and Google’s conquest of the advertising industry. And while competition from user-generated media and video games has taken screen time away from Hollywood’s products and will continue to do so, there’s clearly still a lot of demand for high-quality narrative video.As for why Hollywood employment has risen over some periods but not others, I took a stab at annotating the chart.OK, the 1990s employment gains probably weren’t all or even mostly about HBO’s “The Larry Sanders Show.” That acclaimed comedy was an early (although far from the earliest) landmark in the rise of original series paid for by cable channels, which provided a lucrative new outlet for makers of TV series who previously had only the three big broadcast networks to sell to. Others included cartoons such as Nickelodeon’s “Ren and Stimpy” (which premiered in 1991) and MTV’s “Beavis and Butt-Head” (1993), and early reality series such as MTV’s “The Real World” (1992) and “Road Rules” (1994). Later in the decade came HBO’s high-end scripted series “Sex and the City” (1998) and “The Sopranos” (1999). Boom times for U.S. movie makers may have had as much or more impact on the 1990s jobs numbers than TV did. Domestic ticket sales rose after a flat 1980s, foreign markets grew in importance and the rise of the DVD created a big new revenue stream. From 1990 to 1998, according to consulting firm Monitor Deloitte, the number of U.S.-developed theatrical films rose 67%, from 319 to 534, while the number of U.S.-developed TV productions of all sorts rose 36%, from 397 to 541. Those higher production volumes brought pressure to cut costs. One reaction was to do more filming abroad. Another was to increase reliance on reality shows, which usually require a lot fewer people (especially unionized people such as actors and writers) than scripted programs. Competition-based reality TV first took off in Europe in the 1990s, and after CBS brought “Big Brother” (originally from the Netherlands) and “Survivor” (from the U.K. and Sweden) to the U.S. in 2000, the format for a time seemed destined to completely take over broadcast TV here. Hollywood was able to keep employment steady through this reality-TV onslaught thanks to overseas movie markets plus continued growth in the number of scripted shows on cable, but the trend did not seem to be the industry’s friend.Then Netflix came to the rescue with “House of Cards,” the first of a flood of original programming that it and rival streaming providers commissioned to lure and keep customers. The number of scripted series for television nearly doubled from 2011 to 2018, according to FX Networks, with streaming services accounting for the vast majority of the gains.Can it continue? The 495 scripted series that aired in 2018 amounted to only a modest rise over 2017’s 487, a slowdown that seems to be reflected in the jobs numbers. The past few years might turn out to have been “peak TV,” and peak employment in motion picture and video production might turn out to have come and gone.Or it might not. This has proved to be quite the resilient industry, after all. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is still projecting a 5.5% increase in motion picture and video industry(2) employment through 2018. The narrow occupational categories expected to see the biggest employment gains are:film and video editors, 3,800 new jobs producers and directors, 3,000 new jobsPart of what’s going on is that social media networks, YouTube and other nontraditional content channels — and advertisers —are hungry for programming that doesn’t require Hollywood-level production budgets but does still need people to create, direct, edit and produce it. These generally aren’t Martin-Scorsese-type jobs. Still, if you’ve always wanted to direct, it’s nice to know that you needn’t give up hope just yet.(1) The number of waiters and waitresses working in motion picture and video industries has risen from 510 in 2010 to 3,510in 2018, and the number of bartenders from 150 to 1,910.(2) That is, including distribution, exhibition and post-production as well as production.To contact the author of this story: Justin Fox at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Sarah Green Carmichael at email@example.comThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Justin Fox is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering business. He was the editorial director of Harvard Business Review and wrote for Time, Fortune and American Banker. He is the author of “The Myth of the Rational Market.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
The coming week’s docket of economic reports and earnings releases comes just following the Trump administration’s announcement of a partial trade deal with China late last week.
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Shares of Netflix (NFLX) have fallen over 20% in the past three months. Let's dive into everything we know about Netflix heading into its Q3 earnings release to see what to expect from NFLX stock...
Netflix's (NFLX) third-quarter 2019 results are likely to be driven by a robust content portfolio. However, intensifying competition remains a concern.
(Bloomberg) -- Jeff Wlodarczak has been one of Netflix Inc.’s biggest advocates on Wall Street since he took over coverage of the company at Pivotal Research Group in 2015. Over four years, he never wavered from recommending the stock, and this summer the analyst predicted the streaming giant would eventually be worth more than $200 billion.But in September, Wlodarczak slashed his price target by a third to $350 — the largest cut since he began coverage. While he still recommends the stock, Wlodarczak is part of a growing chorus of analysts who now worry Netflix is headed for a slowdown. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS AG were among the latest to cut their expectations Thursday.“Sentiment is awful,” Wlodarczak said.Netflix shares have fallen 23% since mid-July, when the company fell short of its own second-quarter forecast for new customers. While most analysts blamed the miss on a recent price increase, they also worry that looming competition from Walt Disney Co., Comcast Corp., Apple Inc. and AT&T Inc. could make it difficult for the company to sustain its growth — or reduce the billions of dollars it must raise annually in the junk-bond market.That raises the pressure on Netflix investors ahead of next week, when the company reports third-quarter results, the final stretch before the Disney+ and Apple TV+ streaming services debut. The Los Gatos, California-based company predicted in July it would add 7 million customers in the period, bringing its worldwide total to almost 159 million. But data services used by investors project Netflix will sign fewer, Wlodarczak said.“People are expecting them to miss,” he said. “I can’t recall Netflix ever missing two quarters in a row.”That growing apprehension marks a stark turnaround for a company that has seemed invincible for years, often obliterating Wall Street’s estimates as consumers across the world embraced internet TV. Investor enthusiasm helped fuel Netflix’s rise to the top of the global-entertainment business and feed its ever-growing cash needs.When the company’s first original hit drama, “House of Cards,” debuted in 2013, Netflix was worth around $10 billion, a fraction of the value placed on media giants like Disney and Comcast.The success of its early series and the decline in pay-TV customers convinced investors that Netflix was reigning over a new era of TV, where people in developed countries watched on-demand over the internet instead of via cable or satellite.Subscribers surpassed 50 million, and then 100 million. The market value of Netflix soared as well, peaking near $170 billion last year and briefly topping Disney’s.But Netflix’s spending on movies and TV shows also soared — to an estimated $15 billion this year — while the number of projects topped 1,000. The company’s debt ballooned too, from $500 million to roughly $13 billion.Now, more than two decades after its founding, Netflix is still burning through cash and earning less than its media peers.The company blamed the second-quarter misfire on its slate of new films and TV shows, a claim that set off alarms inside and outside the company. Netflix released dozens of new projects in the second quarter, including the award-winners “Our Planet” and “When They See Us,” the Adam Sandler comedy “Murder Mystery” and the breakout hit “Dead to Me.”If all those programs failed to deliver, what would?Some employees also questioned why the company went ahead with a long-planned retreat to Iceland just days before delivering such bad news, according to a person familiar with the matter. Chief Executive Officer Reed Hastings and Chief Content Officer Ted Sarandos have since reassured employees that the second quarter was a hiccup, according to some who were privy to the conversations and asked not to be identified because they were private.For the quarter just ended, new seasons of hits such as “Stranger Things” and “La Casa de Papel” probably helped the company attract new customers. If Netflix hits its forecast when results come out next week, it’ll be a record for the quarter.“There’s a lot of money being spent, and Netflix will have to ramp up.”But employees and investors clearly worry this time is different. Netflix has a lot more customers than it did three years ago, making it harder to sustain the same level of growth. And that’s without new competition.Disney, Apple, Comcast and AT&T are all taking aim at Netflix, attempting to lure many of the same customers to their own online offerings. They are commissioning original shows and pulling programs from Netflix for their own services.The competition has set off an arms race for talent. Producers Ryan Murphy, Greg Berlanti and Shonda Rhimes have all secured deals in Hollywood worth hundreds of millions of dollars, while actors such as Reese Witherspoon and Jennifer Aniston now command more than $1 million an episode.Netflix’s thesis has long been that revenue will eventually far outstrip its program spending. As the company produced more in-house and relied less on outside studios, it could limit the cost of its shows. But with new rivals pressing in, that may not be the case.“There’s a lot of money being spent, and Netflix will have to ramp up,” said Wlodarczak, who, like most other analysts, continues to believe the company’s long-term future is bright. “We had told our clients that it will be tough for the stock to work ahead of Disney+ and HBO Max.”To contact the author of this story: Lucas Shaw in Los Angeles at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Turner at email@example.com, Rob GolumFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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Disney, which plans to launch its Disney+ video service to rival Netflix, has banned the streaming giant from advertising on its television networks.
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