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Norsk Hydro ASA (NHYKF)
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Did anybody catch that Fast Money segment today on aluminum and Tesla, in particular? It was about Tesla having to stick for now with its Russian supplier (Rusal) of aluminum and Elon Musk's personal challenge for a duel with Vladimir Putin. The segment's focus was the difficulty Tesla and automakers in general are having sourcing enough base metals like aluminum and nickel outside of Russia, which of course is a major producing country of those base metals.
I found it ridiculous when Melissa was searching around the panel for how to play this story with a trade and Guy and the others were concentrating on what levels (or not) to buy Tesla at instead of even mentioning the glaringly obvious play here: BUY THE NON-RUSSIAN GLOBAL BASE METAL SUPPLY! Indeed, I though it was fairly awful and quite shocking that the panel did not take this obvious opportunity to make the bullish case for base metal mining stocks outside of Russia. Especially when they were down across the board today even more than the automakers and can be bought at steep discounts here compared to just last week. Especially disappointing was Guy who is an Alcoa bull but only seems to want to make the call for it after it is already run up on any given day or week. Alcoa is down currently I believe 15% from when Guy told people to buy it just a week ago. And he doesn't even bother to mention it during this very aluminum-specific segment today???? What a total clown.
At least the guest analyst during the segment mentioned how Norsk Hydro of Norway is supplying automakers with aluminum. (Norsk Hydro is the Norwegian major global aluminum producer that uses its wholly-owned hydroelectric power plants for the power to produce its low-carbon aluminum). Also, Karen did matter-of-factly speculate that maybe Glencore (major global producer of nickel, copper, cobalt, and other metals) could possibly come to the rescue of one or more of these automakers... It was nice that that Norsk Hydro and Glencore were at least mentioned in the segment, especially considering that they happen to be my top two favorites in the base metal space.
But again, it was extremely disappointing that not Guy or anyone else in the segment made the obvious case for Alcoa, the domestic and global major aluminum company that I happen to also be very bullish on and hold a sizeable position in. Especially when you can get it this afternoon at such a nice discount from when Guy pitched it just a week ago! And especially when the very subject of the entire segment was aluminum. Just ridiculous!
I will try to post the link to the segment in the comments below...
$NHYDY $GLNCY $AA $TSLA $GM $F
Have you guys ever heard of (
)? The picks on there are way better than NHYDY
Value investing is about being greedy when others are fearful and basing your greed on sound fundamental analysis.
A sector that is extremely volatile but has positive underlying fundamentals is the aluminum sector. Stocks like Alcoa have rebounded significantly since the March 2020 lows, even more than 300%, but it is never a bad time to analyze a sector and follow interesting stocks.
This is my conclusion from the 5 analyzed stocks:
Alcoa (NYSE: AA) has legacy issues with big debt burdens and not really a competitive advantage given the US cost operational base, except for Ma'aden. I don't know if it will be able to create sustainable value for shareholders long-term.
Kaizer Aluminum (NASDAQ: KALU) looks like a really good business with strong margins, doing smart acquisitions, has great customers and is profitable no matter the environment. If you are looking for a quality business to follow, look no further.
Century Aluminum (NASDAQ: CENX) has 4 smelters and doesn't make any money. Glencore is keeping it alive but i don't know for how long. However, when aluminum prices go up, index funds and ETFs buy it, so the stocks goes up too.
Chinalco (NYSE: AHC) is owned by the Chinese government, so the interests of the main shareholder are not aligned with yours. Avoid.
Norsk Hydro (NO:NHY) is a good business with low cost hydro energy advantages offering a sound fundamental basis.
Here is a video discussing the aluminum investing opportunity. Unfortunately not a long-term investment place to put your money into because, as Buffett says: "in a battle between good management and a bad industry, the industry's reputation will almost always remain intact”! But, given the positive fundamental trends, it can offer low risk/high reward value investment trades here and there. I will cover Norsk Hydro and Kaizer, and some other for the long-term.
Norsk Hydro (NO:NHY) is a good business with low cost hydro energy advantages.
P/E ratio: 9,25
P/B ratio: 1.228
Be aware of -$222m in 3Q 2020
It takes part in all the value chains from LME futures, aluminium recycling, standard ingots, Profiling and other premiums.
I want to pinpoint that the negative net profit is an increase from 1Q 2020 reporting -$1.8b. IEC conducted reports finding arsenic, lead and cobalt etc allegedly dumped in rivers by hydro near their Alunorte facility, Brazil. they will recover but can you trust a company that does not take responsibility for their actions and hasn't done any restructuring after the scandal? I don't know. Don't forget that Yara, previously merged with hydro as "Hydro Agri" was found guilty of corruption when trying to enter the fertiliser markets in India and Libya?
I'm not long yet but will conduct further analysis and may go long within this year
was a great value before the drop, now is a bargain. kind of wish it would stay down for a while so I could buy more when I get more free cash, but I doubt it
Norsk Hydro is a major global producer of aluminum that many investors are unfamiliar with. Based in Norway, it is by far the world's greenest, low-carbon (and approaching zero-carbon) aluminum producer. The energy used to produce its aluminum comes from its own hydroelectric plants. Not only all this, it is a highly profitable, compellingly low-valuation company. As some of you may know, aluminum was already trading at or near all-time highs even before the Russia-Ukraine crisis began on supply/demand concerns. With the crisis, aluminum has been rising daily and is now firmly in all-time high territory. In my humble opinion, the price of Norsk Hydro stock does not fully reflect the incredibly bullish case for this company going forward.
$NYDDY $AA $RIO $BHP $VALE $FCX $SCCO $CLF
aluminum ---- strong buy stock. rating: 1
Back to $6
load up this won't stay down long
25% dividend withholding plus ADR fees
This will $100 before 2018
Is this company any good?
Solid Company. Employees have ownership stake. Diversified.
Norsk Hydro has 2GWatts of hydroelectric generating capacity. In Finland they have spent $12 billion on a nuclear plant that has about the same capacity. Nearly twice the current market cap of Norsk Hydro. So maybe you get all the aluminum plants for free.
Anyone know why there's been no volume today?
Hope it drops more, I'll take this "high" yielder! Solid Company.
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