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QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM)

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131.20-0.74 (-0.56%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT
131.30 +0.10 (+0.08%)
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  • E
    Erik
    A possible explanation why QCOM is underperforming despite all positives that are expressed on this board is what BofA is saying. QCOM is a company that is a good idea to sell during October for many funds, in order to claim tax loss. The same article says that those companies (13 are mentioned) will likely rally after Oct 31!
    https://www.thestreet.com/investing/qualcomm-fedex-bofa-list-tax-beneficiaries?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
    Bank of America identifies 13 stocks that may suffer from tax-loss selling through Oct. 31 and then rebound afterward.
    Bank of America identifies 13 stocks that may suffer from tax-loss selling through Oct. 31 and then rebound afterward.
    www.thestreet.com
  • k
    kastenz
    TEL AVIV, Israel, Oct. 26, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Quantum Machines, creator of the first universal quantum computing cloud infrastructure, today announced an investment from Qualcomm Ventures LLC. The investment in Quantum Machines is the first by Qualcomm Ventures in the Quantum Computing space and is an extension of the company's Series B round announced earlier this year. PR Newswire.
  • K
    Kingspellchecker
    From a sponsored Tech Crunch article a few months ago - but worth reading to understand what you are invested in.

    In September of 1882, Thomas Edison flipped a switch inside his Pearl Street Station, delivering electricity to 3,000 incandescent light bulbs across Lower Manhattan and igniting a revolution of interconnected technology. Nearly a century and a half later, 5G is on the verge of a similar transformative moment, ushering in a new era in which everybody and everything will be connected, driving a digital transformation of all industries, in all corners of the globe.

    This digital transformation is on a scale like we’ve never seen before, and 5G is the key ingredient fueling it. Unlike the G’s before it, 5G is the first generation of mobile technology designed to go beyond the smartphone. It is networks for all devices and industries, ranging from computers and XR headsets to factories and farms.

    No industry will be left untouched, including automotive, which is already in the midst of its digital transformation. Carmakers are working to phase out the internal combustion engine. They are connecting the car to other cars and its surrounding environment. And to support this, they are integrating advanced technologies, such as always connected, high performance, power efficient systems that are entirely transforming the driving experience.
  • G
    Greg
    Qualcomm has announced four new chipsets which are the Snapdragon 778G Plus, 695, 680, and 480 Plus. The new chipsets will offer more options to device manufacturers while choosing a Snapdragon processor, which could also help the company better compete with rival MediaTek........... https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/tech-news-technology/qualcomm-snapdragon-778g-plus-480-plus-695-680-announced-all-you-need-to-know-7593079/ 
    Here's what's new with the four additions to Qualcomm's Snapdragon lineup.
    Here's what's new with the four additions to Qualcomm's Snapdragon lineup.
    indianexpress.com
  • B
    Bruce
    5G Device Ecosystem – Executive Summary – October 2021
    The number of announced 5G devices continues to rise and has now passed the 1000 mark for the first time. There are now 1060 announced 5G devices, an increase of 21.4% in the last quarter. Of these devices, 66.4% are understood to be commercially available. The number of commercial 5G devices has grown by 26.4% over the last three months. For the first time, the number of 5G devices understood to be commercially available has passed 700 to reach a total of 704 devices.
    By end-September 2021, GSA had identified:
    •          twenty-two announced form factors.
    •          one hundred and fifty-eight vendors who had announced available or forthcoming 5G devices.
    •          one thousand and sixty announced devices (including regional variants, but excluding operator-branded devices that are essentially rebadged versions of other phones), including 704 that are understood to be commercially available:
    o          five hundred and twenty-three phones (up 45 from August), at least 459 of which are now commercially available (up 35 in a month).
    o          one hundred and eighty-eight FWA CPE devices (indoor and outdoor), at least of which 89 are now commercially available.
    o          one hundred and thirty-eight modules.
    o          seventy industrial/enterprise routers/gateways/modems.
    o          forty-six battery operated hotspots.
    o          twenty-three tablets.
    o          nineteen laptops (notebooks).
    o          eleven in-vehicle routers/modems/hotspots.
    o          eight USB terminals/dongles/modems.
    o          thirty-four other devices (including drones, head-mounted displays, robots, TVs, cameras, femtocells/small cells, repeaters, vehicle OBUs, a snap-on dongle/adapter, a switch, a vending machine and an encoder).
    o          five hundred and eighty-eight announced devices with declared support for 5G standalone in sub-6 GHz bands, 410 of which are commercially available.
    Not all devices are available immediately and specification details remain limited for some devices.
    5G Device Ecosystem – Executive Summary – October 2021
  • K
    Kingspellchecker
    Now that 5G phones are more affordable, Qualcomm wants to make those low-cost devices more desirable. The company has introduced three new systems-on-chip that all promise improved performance for budget 5G hardware. The star is easily the Snapdragon 695. This 6nm-based sequel to the 690 adds much faster millimeter wave 5G (important for carriers like AT&T and Verizon) while delivering up to 30 percent faster graphics and 15 percent speedier CPU tasks. Your next mid-range phone might be that much better-suited to gaming and giant downloads.

    The Snapdragon 480 Plus and 778G Plus, meanwhile, are iterations of the 480 and 778G that deliver minor gains to CPU and GPU performance through increased clock speeds. Think of them as tune-ups for entry-level and upper-mid-range phones, respectively — you won't have to make do with a chip several months old.

    There's also a lone LTE chip, the Snapdragon 680, that shares the 695's 6nm process without the added costs of 5G. It's aimed at markets where 5G service is either limited or too expensive.

    All four parts are due to reach shipping products before the end of 2021. Honor, Motorola, Nokia (that is, HMD Global), Oppo, Vivo and Xiaomi all expect to use one or more of the new Snapdragons in their phones.

    There's a pragmatism at work. The 6nm parts (including the 778G Plus) help Qualcomm continue to serve a large chunk of the smartphone market despite limited supplies of 5nm parts like the 780G. It doesn't have to rely on truly old process lStill, it's notable that the chip maker is launching so many speed-bumped chips in the first place — the company is clearly determined to fend off heavyweights like MediaTek that thrive on budget and mid-range hardware.
  • G
    Grayson
    I am confused by Rich's remark. 6 months from now (mid 2022) supply chain will be in much better shape. Also, they clearly indicated that they secured supply from primary and secondary nodes so they would have s meaningful increase in their supply chain by year end. This was stated earlier in the year and has not be retracted. So unless demand falls, why would they see a contraction in earnings?? Why would they start introducing lower priced Snapdragon chipsets for mid price phones if they had supply constraints. They can "sell everything they produce". I guess we will know next week.
  • s
    stefanos
    AMD reported stellar earnings. QCOM will blow away estimates. The difference between the two is that AMD is already prized sky high while QCOM is priced laughably low. It is coming boys and girls.
  • G
    Greg
    Qualcomm Upgrades Mobile Roadmap to Deliver Increased Capabilities Across Snapdragon 7, 6 and 4 Series

    https://www.qualcomm.com/news/releases/2021/10/26/qualcomm-upgrades-mobile-roadmap-deliver-increased-capabilities-across
  • E
    Erik
    My Testimony about Qualcomm

    This post is divided into:
    1. What Qualcomm used to be, until recently
    2. What Qualcomm is now
    3. What Qualcomm will develop into

    1. What Qualcomm was until recently:
    Qualcomm has, for decades been a leader in the development of foundational cellular technology, which has given it the right to charge license fees on all phones, all brands, smart or not, that use 3G, 4G and 5G technology, this meaning, pretty much all phones that exist. This was a good business with super high margins.

    Qualcomm has also used its superior inside knowledge about those standards, in order to develop the (by far) best modems in the business, and for the last decade developed SoCs that besides the modem, includes pretty much all intelligence on the phones.

    Though successful, here has been a couple of downsides to this strategy:
    a) Smartphones turned into a stagnant business in the late 2010’s,
    b) Their licence model was challenged by for example Apple, Huawei and FTC.
    c) More than 90% dependence on cellular phones.

    While Qualcomm was a money-making machine with cool dividends, their stagnant growth and constant challenges to their licencing created the perception of a company at war with its large customers, so it kept the stock from taking off. Many investors unfortunately still think of them that way.

    2. What Qualcomm is now

    In the last few years, the picture has changed greatly, driven primarily by:

    a) Settlements and wins with Apple, Huawei and FTC
    b) The emergence of 5G
    c) Qualcomm focus on high growth product lines besides smartphones.

    Some detail:
    a) Especially FTC dropping its lawsuit entirely after the appeals court ruling as well as the Apple settlement were hugely important for Qualcomm. Sure, some countries or entities may fuss a little and create some relatively minor troubles, but when it comes to license fees, the sailing will be much smoother going forward.

    b) In general, investors don’t understand just how complex 5G modems are, and how far ahead Qualcomm are any other company. It is a joke to believe that Apple, with their acquired Intel failed modem division, would have a product ready by 2023 as some “analysts” seem to believe. It will likely take 5years or more. Also, MediaTek lags far behind, and are confined to low end phones.

    As Qualcomm is stating, and the numbers show, 5G unit prices are about 50% higher than 4G. Evidence: QCOM handset sales first 9 months FY2021 are $12,14 vs $7,46B same period FY2020 .

    There is also an ongoing windfall, from Huawei, who used other suppliers than QCOM, has exited the handphone business, and that market is mainly taken over by QCOMs best customers Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo and Honor, the guys that buy Qualcomm’s excellent complete SoC’s, and together supply about 45-50% of all 5G phones. This transition will be noticeable in the next few quarters. Margins are enhanced by the ongoing gradual introduction of mmWave.

    c) New High Growth Products – Recent high growth product are divided into 3 segments:

    - IOT (Internet of Things) – This segment increased a whopping 83% y/y for the last quarter and is now the largest area outside of handsets with 1,40B in quarterly sales. It includes high growth areas like computing, industrial, and edge networking.
    - RFFE – In this area Qualcomm has grown from a minor player to the largest supplier in the world in just a couple of years. It grew 87% in the first 9 months this year. Qualcomm expects continued high growth there with integrated system designs, using its strong market position to sell systems to existing customers.
    - Auto – Probably the most exiting future area of the company. It grew 60% y/y first 9 months this year, Qualcomm has an order book of about 10 BUSD and has 23 of the the 26 leading auto brands as its customers already. The recent acquisition of Veoneer’s ADAS properties positions QCOM well to become the world leading supplier in automated driving functionality.

    Total sales this year (FY21) will exceed 33B according to Yahoo Finance consensus compared to last year just 21,7B. Next year sales is estimated at 36,6B, but estimates are bumped up each quarter, and based on the developments outlined above, sales should be around 42B and EPS around $12 rather than current consensus of $9.28.

    3. What Qualcomm will develop into
    QCOMs handset business growth will eventually slow, even though gradual growth of mmWave can counter-balance that. However, other fast growing segments will be more than 50% of the business soon. Margins are higher there. Auto is hugely exciting after Veoneer is integrated.

    Therefore I predict that EPS will grow to $15 per share in 2023, and onward to $18 per share in 2024.

    Bottom Line

    As it becomes clear that Apple are nowhere near launching their own iPhone modem, and also clear how QCOM growth businesses are taking over, forward PE should rise from todays 14 to somewhere between 25 and 30. This makes me expect a stock price of 375 to 540 in 2-3 years’ time.
  • S
    SamIAm
    This is so frustrating. Luckily I have AVGO AMD and NVDA but my bulk ownership is QCOM. Can't seem to make any headway.
  • B
    Bruce
    Mediatek conference call is interesting read. He all but concedes market share losses for remaining of 21 but then says he will gain it all back when he releases the new "flagship" chip next year. When pressed about design wins, he refused to answer.
  • B
    Bruce
    Mr Market time to pay attention.....

    That being said, there was another big mobile semis story this week. Qualcomm unveiled its new RF chips. We have written a lot about Qualcomm’s dramatic change of fortunes in the RF space (and here and here). Put simply, Qualcomm has gone from almost a joke in RF to a powerhouse. They have had the capabilities to build RF products for over a decade, but it took them a long time to get the organization to the right place, and now that they have, they are firing on all cylinders.

    In particular, they launched a new line of filters. RF modules on phones are a collection of parts: filters; power amplifiers (PA); and a bunch of other stuff (these things are pretty complicated). Since the launch of 4G, which brought a lot of new spectrum bands into play, we have been living in a Golden Age of RF content in phones, and nowhere is that more true than with filters. With phones tapping into all sorts of radio frequencies, and with many of those frequencies laying pretty close to each other filter requirements have gone way up. Leading filter makers like Broadcom, Murata and Qorvo (in that order) have done very well. But now, just like everyone else in RF, they have to contend with Qualcomm looking to eat their lunch.

    In all fairness, we still do not know a lot about the new Qualcomm chips. Filters are very difficult to manufacture profitably, the manufacturing process is very challenging with very tight specs. So we do not yet know how well these product will do commercially, but our sense is that they would not have launched them if they had not already gotten these to a fairly mature stage. Note they are already sampling these to customers with volume production expected later next year.

    All of this is bad news for the other filter makers, but it is also likely good news for companies like Rubicon who we suspect are providing the specialized SOI wafers for Qualcomm’s RF line and Global Foundries who has built a nice SOI foundry business.

    But as we were reading this, we realized there are broader implications. For years, Qualcomm has had to use its core modem and AP business lines to “encourage” customers to buy its lagging RF products. But now the tables may be finally reversing, whereby the RF products can help pull customers to other Qualcomm parts. (We say finally because this was the original promise of Qualcomm entering the market ten plus years ago.) Qualcomm’s RF products may be able to not only expand Qualcomm’s Total Addressable Market (TAM), but may also start protecting the core product lines.

    Qualcomm has a big advantage in the RF market. Because they make all the chips in the phone related to communication (i.e. everything but the screen and memory), they can tightly couple their RF products to the compute engine in the AP. This gives “intelligence” (or at least digital logic) to the RF chain which can have a big impact on the performance of the phone. Go back to that Ars article about Google’s Tensor, a lot of the same thinking applies here to the way that well designed compute can have an impact on other parts of the phone. In Qualcomm’s case, this can go even further. Using digital logic and a lot of tricky design work, Qualcomm’s integrated RF chain can actually reduce the filter requirement of a phone (among many other enhancements). So in the hypothetical case where Qualcomm’s new RF chips are maybe not quite as good as other companies’ filters, they can likely make up for the shortfall with this integration. This fully integrated RF Front End (RFFE) has long been the Holy Grail of RF companies, and Qualcomm is likely on the cusp of delivering that. They have already demonstrated one for fixed wireless access points, and if we had to guess we would say that Qualcomm is probably going to announce a fully mobile version at next year’s Mobile World Congress (if the show happens).

    The importance of this extends beyond the RF space. If Qualcomm can really deliver on this (and by no means is it certain) then they will once again have a differentiated product, something that no one else has. This will be trouble for their arch-nemesis Mediatek whose market share this has overtaken Qualcomm for the first time. Mediatek has some RF assets, but lags considerably. But this is also important for the smartphone makers. All the leading smartphone makers have now been forced to build their own APs, with Apple going so far as to build its own modems, but none of them can make RF products. If Qualcomm’s RF products are as good as they could be, their customers will have to rethink their AP plans. They will turn to Qualcomm’s AP because it will be able to deliver far superior RF performance. In theory, Apple with a few hundred billion dollars in cash on its books could build its own RF chips, but it would take a long time to get there, certainly beyond the 2024 timeline when everyone thinks they will have their own modem. If they really wanted to avoid Qualcomm, Apple wou
  • h
    hehe
    after buyback announcement, the volume is significantly reduced. it is curious.
  • B
    Bruce
    THERE SHOULD BE NO DOUBTS ABOUT THE RELEASE TIME OF XIAOMI 12

    The first point among the advantages of Xiaomi 12 will be the latest platform Snapdragon 898. One cannot but recall the fact that for several years the company has been doing everything to be the first on the market to release a flagship with the latest top-end SoC from Qualcomm. All indications are that this year, too, its Xiaomi 12 will claim the title of a pioneer in the market with the Snapdragon

    Network insider Ice Universe, who is quite accurate in his predictions, said that he is 100% confident that the Xiaomi 12 will premiere in December. You can trust this insider, so it is worth taking for granted that the company will arrange the announcement of the new flagship in the last month of the outgoing year and it will be the first on the market to offer the latest premium platform from Qualcomm. Presumably, the announcement will take place after December 12th.
  • A
    Angelo
    $NLST conversation
    $NLST Officially becoming a $Qcom company like it should've been all along.
  • B
    Bruce
    Analysts should be allowed to update their ratings / price targets only once per quarter all on the same day at the same time. This will minimize the blatant manipulation and collusion going on between hedge funds and brokerage / banks / market makers.
  • G
    Greg
    Arm to Launch 5G Solutions Lab With Qualcomm, Google, and Others
    Arm plans to play a central role in the market for 5G network infrastructure, with Arm-based chips inside the majority of base stations. Arm is also dominant in smartphones that can connect to 5G networks.

    Arm said it plans to launch a 5G lab with the support of several major semiconductor vendors and other players, giving them a place to test new technologies and plot out strategies for bringing them to market.

    The company detailed its plan for the new 5G Solutions Lab ahead of its annual conference on Monday. Arm said it would allow companies to work together to test and validate 5G solutions in areas ranging from small cells and macrocells to core networks and software in charge of coordinating all of the base stations in a telecom giant's 5G network. The lab could also focus on new network architectures including cloud RAN.

    Arm executives said 5G networks have already been deployed in 60 markets globally. Moreover, 5G phones are on pace to represent 40% of global shipments in 2021, growing to almost 70% by 2025, according to IDC.

    "The rapid pace of deployment underscores how critical it is that we achieve faster development of network and edge infrastructure solutions," said Chris Bergey, SVP and GM of Arm's infrastructure business, in a blog.

    Arm plans to open the 5G labs' doors as many telecom giants overhaul how they operate new 5G networks. Many telecom firms are investing in a new standard for open radio access networks called Open RAN, which will allow them to use more commodity networking gear in 5G networks. This model mirrors the "white box" systems widely used by Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and other cloud players for software-defined networks.

    Previously, telecom giants would buy all of the components necessary to build a base station from a single supplier such as Nokia, Ericsson, or Huawei, each with proprietary packages of hardware and software that limited their customers' flexibility. But the Open RAN standard would make it possible for them to mix and match interchangeable components sold by different vendors and assemble them in a more modular way.

    The Open RAN model could also reduce costs by bringing more competition to the market. By giving telcos the ability to add features to 5G networks by upgrading the software or swapping out standard hardware, Nokia, Ericsson, Samsung, Cisco, and other telecom gear vendors will have to compete more on pricing.

    Arm proposed the 5G solutions lab as a place for hardware and software vendors to test new products against each other to make sure that they are interchangeable and meet 5G standards like Open RAN.

    Arm said the lab is supported by a wide range of industry partners, including Nvidia, NXP Semiconductors, Marvell, and Qualcomm, which has been investing to expand its footprint in the market for 5G base station silicon. Google's cloud computing arm plans to take part in the 5G technology lab, along with more than 10 other networking gear makers, software firms, and telecom giants such as Dish Networks and Vodaphone.

    https://www.electronicdesign.com/technologies/embedded-revolution/article/21178283/electronic-design-arm-to-launch-5g-solutions-lab-with-qualcomm-google-and-others
  • A
    Anonymous
    Sony Xperia Pro-I flagship smartphone announced with Qualcomm Snapdragon 888 5G SoC

    - first smartphoine with a big 20Mpixel 1"-type stacked CMOS sensor with built-in memory and phase-detection autofocus
    - 6.5" 4K HDR 10-bit (8-bit with 2-bit temporal dithering, or FRC) OLED display with a 21:9 aspect ratio and a 120Hz refresh rate
    - 12GB DRAM and 512GB NAND
  • S
    Stanley
    AMD surpasses market cap of QCOM. Our day will come.