China's massive stimulus will show up. It includes materials for EV and infrastructure.
J
In yesterday's Kitco report, Rio is ranked 9th on the list of the world's largest copper companies. It's not bad, esp. taking into account the upcoming increase in production at Oyu Tolgoi and the advanced development of the Winu project. In addition, the company manages numerous copper development/exploration projects around the world. Some of them are big. The company is not considered a big copper producer, mainly because its iron ore mining operations are huge in both size and profitability. The price of copper has fallen heavily this week, but this is nothing but a temporary phenomenon. Copper is in high demand, while the development of new mines is inadequate, mainly for political reasons.
s
I recently saw that Goldman Sachs issued a sell rating on a stock after it was down some 80 percent.
As someone on CNBC said this week “Where were they 80 percent ago??" Where were they?? Why telling you to buy more stock. Thats their job. Its not to protect you the investor from losses.
P
So what do you guys think? I'm planning to hold all next week for starters I made a good (big for me) buy last Thursday at the open and am way up. I keep seeing projections for Rio with another 10+ points of upside short-term,
J
Usually, I don’t re-post news that’s already on the Yahoo page, because it is already easy to find and read. However, I feel that making this exception would be justified. The US appeal court decision, upholding the land swap for Resolution copper development in Arizona, keeps the door open for the project, which is very important for both the company and the country. It is still not guaranteed that present US will stop obstructing copper mining and gives, finally, green light to construction now. The previous administration had already made this green light decision before 2020 election, but present administration put it on hold. Perhaps, it will take 2024 elections to make it happen finally. Resolution could become one of the largest copper mines in the world. Rio owns 50% and would operate the mine. BHP owns other 50%. If Resolution goes forward then Rio would become a legitimate major copper producer.
D
Going to hold RIO through this recession. The dividend is solid and strong. Materials may be down but not out. China will come back too.
J
Downgraded to EqualWeight at Morgan Stanley. Price target reduced from GBP6410 to GBP6230. This is still substantially higher than present price GBP4907.
J
How could you not buy here?
E
For some reason, I thought stocks of commodity companies were supposed to prosper during times of inflation...
J
When is the next ex-div date?
J
From today’s Global Times article “Chinese ambassador visits Australian miners, aims to deepen new-energy cooperation.” Start of quote Chinese Ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian visited three mining companies in Perth, Western Australia over the weekend - Rio Tinto, BHP Group and Fortescue Metals Group - pushing for more cooperation in green technology and new energy under Australia's new administration, highlighting the potential for bilateral cooperation under a "new juncture." During his visit to Rio Tinto's Operations Centre in Perth, the ambassador discussed with Rio Tinto Chairman Dominic Barton and CEO Jakob Stausholm issues involving iron ore and energy trade between China and Australia, as well as Rio Tinto's cooperation with China, according to a press release on the website of the Embassy of China in Australia. Xiao praised Rio Tinto's efforts in developing a long-term win-win partnership with China. End of quote China needs in Australian iron ore. It cannot be replaced by other sources. The only other big source, Brazil, is fully engaged, and its ore is more expensive, both in dollars and energy/emissions, because the ore must be moved to China over much greater distance than from Australia.
J
From Mining Weekly article published yesterday “Iron ore output poised to grow globally up to 2030”, covering Fitch’s research on future iron ore market. Start of quote Research agency Fitch Solutions Country Risk &Industry Research believes iron ore production is likely accelerate between 2022 and 2026, after stagnating somewhat over the last 5 years. The agency forecasts global iron-ore mine output to grow by an average 2.7% over the period, compared with a -1.3% growth rate over 2017 to 2021. End of quote Please note, Fitch, as any other credit agency, is extremely conservative to covered industries, projecting particularly tough scenarios. Start of quote Looking ahead, Fitch Solutions expects lower prices to eventually drag on production growth rates. It forecasts a yearly iron-ore production growth rate average of 1.1% over 2026 to 2030. The agency is confident that iron-ore output levels will stagnate by the end of the decade. End of quote The research provides details for regional market developments Start of quote Fitch forecasts iron-ore production in Australia to grow at an average yearly rate of 0.4% between 2022 and 2026. The significant slowdown compared with the previous five years comes from the launch of limited new sources of supply from new projects. This would lift yearly output by just 19.3-million tonnes in 2026 compared with 2022 levels. “We believe Australia's seating at the lowest end of the global iron-ore cost curve will provide a healthy buffer against falling prices in the coming years despite the slowdown. “On average, the cost of producing iron-ore in Australia is $30/t, compared with between $40/t and $50/t in West Africa and $90/t in China. End of quote In other words, Rio’s Australian iron ore mines will remain strongly profitable in any iron price scenario. It can be noted, in addition, that Rio is a low-cost producer, even by comparison with other Australian producers.
J
Perhaps, some additional information regarding Resolution project would be relevant in conjunction with Reuters article. Whole project area is owned Fed government. This is ok, mining is allowed and even supposed to be promoted on Federal lands. The problem is that one part of the area belongs to a National Forest and this part cannot by law be used for mining. Rio tried for many years to exchange this part for another land that it already bought in the area. This Rio owned land is substantially bigger and has higher environmental value. US Congress approved the land swap in Obama time, it was added by Rep Congress to another legislation to prevent veto. Next administration, president name is disallowed in messages by Yahoo censors, granted approval to the project, but present administration withdrew the approval for “more studies”. US House, fully controlled by Dems, tried couple of times already to make new law, annulling the land swap, but it cannot get through Senate so far. The lawsuit trying to make the land swap invalid is supported and likely financed by Dem-affiliated organizations. Present administration would not mind to get help from the Court annulling the deal and making the project impossible, but it did not work out, even in San Francisco court.
J
Rumors about imminent death of Chinese economy are slightly exaggerated. Enough to say, these speculations are propagated now by the same media observers, who completely missed impending inflation, recession and stagflation in US. Now they try to shift attention from own blindness by inventing crises in every other place.
C
Thanks, I'll check them out.Thanks for the tip!Thanks for the update!
D
China plan to stimulate the economy by pumping money to infrastructure, IT and AI.
s
head n shoulders is forming over the last 6mths. i can see a further 4-5% downside to finish this pattern down to USD 57.80 / 4735p
s
trading economics website has true Iron Ore price, atm it’s $125
Iron Ore 125.00 -6.50
J
FYI. Iron ore price dropped this week from $145 to $120. This is a big drop, though it is not exactly something unseen before. The price was below last winter, and anyway 120 is still a high level by historical standards. Certainly, present share price decline got more severe coverage because of recession fears. It is unknown, obviously, whether and/or when the recession comes, but the market looks forward. Also, the mass media bombards now “global recession” wording, mostly trying to convince US public that it is not bad in US only. As you know, Rio’s business has little dependence on US economy and big dependence on China economy. So far, Chinese economy looks better.
M
Why the sell off? Simply doesn’t make any sense to drop this much under current economic situation.
The price of copper has fallen heavily this week, but this is nothing but a temporary phenomenon. Copper is in high demand, while the development of new mines is inadequate, mainly for political reasons.
As someone on CNBC said this week “Where were they 80 percent ago??" Where were they?? Why telling you to buy more stock. Thats their job. Its not to protect you the investor from losses.
I made a good (big for me) buy last Thursday at the open and am way up.
I keep seeing projections for Rio with another 10+ points of upside short-term,
It is still not guaranteed that present US will stop obstructing copper mining and gives, finally, green light to construction now. The previous administration had already made this green light decision before 2020 election, but present administration put it on hold. Perhaps, it will take 2024 elections to make it happen finally.
Resolution could become one of the largest copper mines in the world. Rio owns 50% and would operate the mine. BHP owns other 50%. If Resolution goes forward then Rio would become a legitimate major copper producer.
Start of quote
Chinese Ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian visited three mining companies in Perth, Western Australia over the weekend - Rio Tinto, BHP Group and Fortescue Metals Group - pushing for more cooperation in green technology and new energy under Australia's new administration, highlighting the potential for bilateral cooperation under a "new juncture." During his visit to Rio Tinto's Operations Centre in Perth, the ambassador discussed with Rio Tinto Chairman Dominic Barton and CEO Jakob Stausholm issues involving iron ore and energy trade between China and Australia, as well as Rio Tinto's cooperation with China, according to a press release on the website of the Embassy of China in Australia. Xiao praised Rio Tinto's efforts in developing a long-term win-win partnership with China.
End of quote
China needs in Australian iron ore. It cannot be replaced by other sources. The only other big source, Brazil, is fully engaged, and its ore is more expensive, both in dollars and energy/emissions, because the ore must be moved to China over much greater distance than from Australia.
Start of quote
Research agency Fitch Solutions Country Risk &Industry Research believes iron ore production is likely accelerate between 2022 and 2026, after stagnating somewhat over the last 5 years. The agency forecasts global iron-ore mine output to grow by an average 2.7% over the period, compared with a -1.3% growth rate over 2017 to 2021.
End of quote
Please note, Fitch, as any other credit agency, is extremely conservative to covered industries, projecting particularly tough scenarios.
Start of quote
Looking ahead, Fitch Solutions expects lower prices to eventually drag on production growth rates. It forecasts a yearly iron-ore production growth rate average of 1.1% over 2026 to 2030. The agency is confident that iron-ore output levels will stagnate by the end of the decade.
End of quote
The research provides details for regional market developments
Start of quote
Fitch forecasts iron-ore production in Australia to grow at an average yearly rate of 0.4% between 2022 and 2026. The significant slowdown compared with the previous five years comes from the launch of limited new sources of supply from new projects. This would lift yearly output by just 19.3-million tonnes in 2026 compared with 2022 levels. “We believe Australia's seating at the lowest end of the global iron-ore cost curve will provide a healthy buffer against falling prices in the coming years despite the slowdown. “On average, the cost of producing iron-ore in Australia is $30/t, compared with between $40/t and $50/t in West Africa and $90/t in China.
End of quote
In other words, Rio’s Australian iron ore mines will remain strongly profitable in any iron price scenario. It can be noted, in addition, that Rio is a low-cost producer, even by comparison with other Australian producers.
The lawsuit trying to make the land swap invalid is supported and likely financed by Dem-affiliated organizations. Present administration would not mind to get help from the Court annulling the deal and making the project impossible, but it did not work out, even in San Francisco court.
Iron Ore 125.00 -6.50
Certainly, present share price decline got more severe coverage because of recession fears. It is unknown, obviously, whether and/or when the recession comes, but the market looks forward. Also, the mass media bombards now “global recession” wording, mostly trying to convince US public that it is not bad in US only. As you know, Rio’s business has little dependence on US economy and big dependence on China economy. So far, Chinese economy looks better.