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The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM)
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This was only $350ish 18 months ago, pre-pandemic, for comparison.
TLDR of the Earnings call, is that they spent a ton of money expanding capacity, supplier contracts, and inventory in anticipation of seltzer growth that didn't happen. A lot of it was applied to Q3 numbers, but there's significant loss yet to be applied throughout the remainder of the year.
Truly continues to gain market share in the category, but the "peak delusion" numbers of 70% category growth from the beginning of the year is now like 10%. Truly will continue to gain market share in the category at anticipate rates, but the category growth itself has stagnated in a huge way.
The question is if the stock price has taken enough of a haircut already for this to be reflected in the market.
What I can say, is don't expect excitement from the market over this at all. I don't see a catalyst for a big bounce any time soon. I say this as a shareholder, and someone who is taking a big haircut tomorrow from my open options contracts. It's just not great news.
Whats even worse...you went 100% backwards when the markets are setting all time highs. Could you imagine what happens to this price if the market starts into a huge correction or even a crash? You may as well start warming the sudsy water
Who trust GS target 1500 ? Man, I shorted this and Z same time !
$300 be good entry for this.
Another of many Goldman Sachs recommendations that went south. Moral: Never listen to GS and never buy a fad.
I bought 4- $400 puts just in case !!! I have flipped SAM over and over since last earnings !
Share price getting in line with long term trends for a slow and steady advance. Enough with flash in the pan moves on the back of the next best thing BS. Let's make beer, sell beer, and collect the money.
It only took 30,000 shares to get a $12 cut, what a easy target to short.
I am not sure if I should sell it now or wait for earning, I have 100 of these and already lost ton of money. If Boston beer post another loss, it will be bad news for stock
I see solid growth for years to come and very popular brands. Can easily pass price increases onto the consumer. At the current price it's pretty intriguing.
Already factored inventory write off and tempered low earnings expectations for this year. Any positive revenue numbers coupled with reassuring PepsiCo’s distribution updates will be extremely helpful.
Never knew that there were that many LAW FIRMS!
500 will be long gone as more and more stop loss orders hit...soon this will go under 400
Current stock price, revenue, and earnings are all very roughly double 2018. So current price roughly aligns with historical pricing. Feb earnings comments: "No slowdown in growth momentum" and "Runaway demand for Selzer". What other justifications besides their growth commentary was there for $1,300 stock price?
Shorts slapped in the face with a cold bar rag. Shorts have been in control here since April 20, 2021. Todays report clears the seltzer saloon, and there is nothing but clear sailing now. Don't forget the Mountain Dew alliance with PEPSICO.
Nice rally … I bought 35 more at ￼$496.89… let’s see if it reverses it pop and drop routine ??
ER runup - target $650 by COB Friday.
This is precisely why I don't do options...
$1000+ to $492 in a little over a month.
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