SB should be thinking dividend on common and buyback some preferred. Anybody in SB stock probably noticed $SBLK. They are getting good press in IBD, etc., too. Mostly good news in dry bulk now.
M
Yes I know PE doesn't mean anything according to many brilliant market folks but SB is in the low single digits and the world keeps moving along no matter what Xi and others say or do. Bulkers are still in early phase of their bull market IMO.
P
It will be interesting to see how dry bulk shipping plays out over the next 6-12 months. If China goes back to stimulating their economy to pump up growth, I think dry bulk will recover. Might see the BDI back around 5000. If this happens and the BDI bounces between 2500-5000 for 12-24 months SB could be $5.00 - $9.00 per share.
If China pulls back on steel making and lowers coal use or continues to mine it's own coal, and holds back on stimulus (especially in the homebuilding area), dry bulk shipping will suffer more. We could see the BDI back around 1000. In this scenario SB will probably drop to $2.50 per share.
I don't see dry bulk shipping staying low for long (unless a black swan event appears). I think the trajectory is up long term. Eventually the transition to green energy will take a lot of steel and a lot of coal to produce the energy in the meantime. That transition will take 10-20 years minimum and more likely 30 years. This coupled with a low orderbook for ships and pressure to switch to efficient ship design and newer propulsion systems will favor the supply-demand ratio.
I will monitor the market and opportunistically acquire dry bulk shipping stocks as long as China continues to maneuver their economy forward. If China's economy starts to falter, then look out below!
Good luck all!
T
I have been involved with this stock in and out for the last 15 years. I have been a big fan of this company for a long time, but I have finally made a complete move. I sold my entire stake in SB and moved it to GRIN midday today. I have been overweight GRIN for the last year (as I have documented here) but yesterdays report was the final tipping point for me. The earnings number was fine, but here is what I did not like:
1) There is still 28 million left in the ATM (That is nearly 30% left). As long as that hangs out there it will hold the stock lower than it should be.
2) I hate the fact that they have those 5 ships tied up from March 2020 ( at the bottom of the market) and Now have two of their Capesize ships tied up for the next three years at way below market rates. I understand trying to lock up rates, but to do so - when we all believe the drybulk market should be good (2022 and 2023 especially) is just a terrible call unless you are getting a longer charter like 5-6 years or a better rate. Bad job on these 7 ships representing nearly 20% of the fleet.
3) Finally the biggest thing of all, while they raised money to pay down debt, they took on new obligations via their capital expenditures that will keep the company under cash pressure through 2024. SB needs a real good 2500+ BDI for the next 2-3 years to raise the cash they will need to meet the combination of their debt needs and capital needs. I think they might get it, so I am not saying they are in trouble, I am simply saying they are at risk - if the BDI goes back to 2019 levels - then these guys will likely need new capital sources by 2023-2024. If the BDI is strong, the cash flow will have to go to debt and capital - there likely will not be much left for shareholder dividends or share buybacks...
Maybe I will come back someday. For now I am going to shift my focus to GRIN - I believe it is a far superior company at this point, although we will learn more about that when they report later this month - I really hope I am not wrong about them...
As a long term fan of this company - I sincerely wish all of you who are sticking with these guys well...Maybe I will be back in with you guys again at some point in the future...
Y
Safe Bulkers is up 8.50% to 3.83
M
About that ATM. I just listened to conference call. Sounds like they have virtually no intention to sell more shares in the next few months. They seem happy where they are. Hmm. Just another option in their toolbox in case the price spikes crazy, I'm thinking.
They never answered Citi's question; kind of too hard to hear. But I think he was suggesting their valuation of fleet was low and he wondered why. If true, that would be a positive for us shareholders (again, just my thinking).
If you haven't listened to call or downloaded the presentation slides, you should. On their website.
A
Make the use of this opportunity to invest and earn today with the of Sheila M. Coil.
📥Contact with Facebook
Sheila M. Coil
L
Can this price decline lately for SB be because insiders know something like earnings day will not be good? I can't see any rhyme or reason for the recent price decline. As of this writing it is at $4.41.
J
Well, I'll chime in. Someone tell me where there's a problem, cause I think the numbers are outstanding!
s
SB would be flying after report
G
Below par performance with avg rates in these market conditions. Day rates below 30k not great.
E
Buy a stock based on a number of factors but SELL on technicals. SB has excellent fundamentals but the technicals stink. SB can't even rally on great earnings (which slightly exceeded expectations). If a stock can't rally on good news, it could be look out below. SB looks like dead money for a while!
J
When does SB report earnings?
S
Year to year profits and expenses show management is managing the company very well. I'm holding what I have and will consider two more increasing buys, smallest 4, largest 3. My buys were 5.10, and 4.75 so far. The people who are taking profits will be putting the money back in at those lower levels. That's what's causing the price decline, not the container problem. Sb isn't in that business and it's an answer to that problem. $$ 💰 $$
A
$5 baby! Let’s go!!!
S
Bloomberg. Container Crisis Gets So Bad Coca-Cola Switches to Bulk Freight
CC is the first. More companies are looking for cintainer alternatives and bulk shippers are at top of the list. 👍
MONACO, Nov. 03, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Safe Bulkers, Inc. (the “Company”) (NYSE: SB), an international provider of marine drybulk transportation...
MONACO, Nov. 03, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Safe Bulkers, Inc. (the “Company”) (NYSE: SB), an international provider of marine drybulk transportation...
www.globenewswire.com
D
Additional ships, new contracts, backlogged and profitable! Excellent upside.
T
BDI is continue going down.
P
this is a solid company that has always made pretty good business decisions, that being said, they will be the dominating Force in the dry bulk business. those who are smart to pick up the stock at this very low price in 2 years time will be extremely happy. when they purchase new ships they know what they are doing. BUY LOW SELL HIGH
If China pulls back on steel making and lowers coal use or continues to mine it's own coal, and holds back on stimulus (especially in the homebuilding area), dry bulk shipping will suffer more. We could see the BDI back around 1000. In this scenario SB will probably drop to $2.50 per share.
I don't see dry bulk shipping staying low for long (unless a black swan event appears). I think the trajectory is up long term. Eventually the transition to green energy will take a lot of steel and a lot of coal to produce the energy in the meantime. That transition will take 10-20 years minimum and more likely 30 years. This coupled with a low orderbook for ships and pressure to switch to efficient ship design and newer propulsion systems will favor the supply-demand ratio.
I will monitor the market and opportunistically acquire dry bulk shipping stocks as long as China continues to maneuver their economy forward. If China's economy starts to falter, then look out below!
Good luck all!
1) There is still 28 million left in the ATM (That is nearly 30% left). As long as that hangs out there it will hold the stock lower than it should be.
2) I hate the fact that they have those 5 ships tied up from March 2020 ( at the bottom of the market) and Now have two of their Capesize ships tied up for the next three years at way below market rates. I understand trying to lock up rates, but to do so - when we all believe the drybulk market should be good (2022 and 2023 especially) is just a terrible call unless you are getting a longer charter like 5-6 years or a better rate. Bad job on these 7 ships representing nearly 20% of the fleet.
3) Finally the biggest thing of all, while they raised money to pay down debt, they took on new obligations via their capital expenditures that will keep the company under cash pressure through 2024. SB needs a real good 2500+ BDI for the next 2-3 years to raise the cash they will need to meet the combination of their debt needs and capital needs. I think they might get it, so I am not saying they are in trouble, I am simply saying they are at risk - if the BDI goes back to 2019 levels - then these guys will likely need new capital sources by 2023-2024. If the BDI is strong, the cash flow will have to go to debt and capital - there likely will not be much left for shareholder dividends or share buybacks...
Maybe I will come back someday. For now I am going to shift my focus to GRIN - I believe it is a far superior company at this point, although we will learn more about that when they report later this month - I really hope I am not wrong about them...
As a long term fan of this company - I sincerely wish all of you who are sticking with these guys well...Maybe I will be back in with you guys again at some point in the future...
They never answered Citi's question; kind of too hard to hear. But I think he was suggesting their valuation of fleet was low and he wondered why. If true, that would be a positive for us shareholders (again, just my thinking).
If you haven't listened to call or downloaded the presentation slides, you should. On their website.
📥Contact with Facebook
Sheila M. Coil
Container Crisis Gets So Bad Coca-Cola Switches to Bulk Freight
CC is the first. More companies are looking for cintainer alternatives and bulk shippers are at top of the list. 👍