Safe Bulkers, Inc. (SB)

For the reasons previously noted - I just added 100 contracts (10,000 shares) Apr 23 $5 put options. I don't understand why the BDI is so bad - all I can tell you - is it is getting worse by the day for SB. I am genuinely surprised the stock is still above$3. I suspect people are holding because that last earnings report was so good (and it was) . They are missing the freight train that is coming straight at them. My guess is when this falls apart, it is really going to fall apart.

By the way I hate owning puts. Over my total investment career 95% of my positions have been long. I would much soon believe something is going to do well then do poorly. But in this case with the BDI at 1213 in August with winter not that far away and all those ships up for re charter, and the fact the stock is still doing pretty well - I had to take advantage of this...

Good luck. Those that are holding and just hedging - that seems smart, if you still want to hold. I just think it is smarter to be out, - I will come back and buy the stock once the dust settles. Believe it or not, I still and will always love the drybulk sector for investing - but you have to time it right - to avoid disaster and/or make good money. To me the writing is on the wall - then next few quarters are not going to be pretty...

I posted a note on this a few weeks ago. As I said a few weeks ago, all of us small guys should be out of the drybulk sector at this point. I continue to add to my put positions - expect to make a ton. What is happening to the rates )BDI) is a complete disaster. This impact is going to hit SB harder than any other drybulk stock and the reason is simple: SB has about 65% of their fleet renewing in the next 45 days. It is not managements fault or anything, no one could have seen this coming. But now they are stuck - 65% of their fleet renewed at these rates (and maybe lower) - these guys will be reporting losses by the end of Q4. At some point the stock is going to collapse and mirror the BDI. When that happens - you don't want to be around. The employees are management of this company are stuck - they are going to have to fight through this. You are not stuck - you have a choice. If you stay - when you can clearly see what is happening - that is a decision you are making. To me - it is nuts to think this will not get very ugly for SB in the coming months - it does not appear to be a question of it, more the question is when.

Good luck and remember never never never fall in love with a stock. I will be back someday as a long - hopefully at much lower prices. This is not the time to be long...

Guys - I know you won't like the comment I am about to make - but you can look at my posting history - I have been right way often then not on this stock and in this industry.

I am buying puts on this stock right now and would say that everyone should sell.

The reason is simple - the BDI is falling apart - broke into the 1700's today. Given the time of year and the action in the index a move below 1000 is looking more and more likely as we get into December/January.

Regarding SB - look at their charters - they have a lot of ships coming up in August and September - as the BDI is moving to new lows. Future charters will be for substantially lower rates (unless the BDI changes course quickly). The result - you will see earning fall off the table as the year moves on and into the 1st half of next year. I sincerely believe you will see SB below $2 by the end of April 2023 (so in the next 9 months given or take)...

Good luck..