Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (SBLK)

09/27/2022 Update
Baltic Dry Index -0.33% to 1,807
Capesize -1.60% to $17,916
Panamax +0.33% to $16,646
Supramax +0.80% to $18,376

09/26/2022 Update
Baltic Dry Index -0.17% to 1,813
Capesize -0.47% to $18,207
Panamax -0.19% to $16,591
Supramax +0.32% to $18,231

09/20/2022 Update
Baltic Dry Index +11.33% to 1,729
Capesize +31.28% to $16,540
Panamax +1.77% to $16,870
Supramax +1.91% to $17,382

Index Quote Change Change% Local
Baltic Dry 1816.00 96.00 5.58% 09/23
Baltic Capesize 2206.00 277.00 14.36% 09/23
Baltic Panamax 1995.00 -3.00 -0.15% 09/23
Baltic Supramax 1652.00 15.00 0.92% 09/23
Baltic Handysize 966.00 14.00 1.47% 09/23

From Stifel research website

Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (SBLK)
Star Bulk is one of the largest dry bulk companies in the world, with exposure to nearly every major asset class. With our expectation that the dry bulk market is improving, dry bulk rates and asset values should move higher. Star Bulk has reasonable leverage and significant operating leverage due to its primarily fixed cost nature of operating the business. Importantly, as the largest public dry bulk company, the shares should have the best trading liquidity, which should offer the best in class valuation. In addition, as fuel demand increases, investments in scrubbers should help increase rate premiums captured by scrubber equipped vessels. Our recommendation to buy the shares is based on the expectation that rates will get to mid-cycle levels, but we believe those expectations could prove to be conservative in time.

09/21/2022 Update
Baltic Dry Index +0.98% to 1,746
Capesize +1.33% to $16,760
Panamax -0.10% to $16,853
Supramax +1.57% to $17,657

09/22/2022 Update
Baltic Dry Index -1.49% to 1,720
Capesize -4.53% to $16,000
Panamax -1.22% to $16,647
Supramax +1.99% to $18,008

Some of you will undoubtedly already be aware of the following two items, but since I haven't heard any reference to either, I figured I'd cut & post 'em up. Both articles are on YF. The first I excerpted below, but the full original can be found here...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reminder-leading-dry-bulk-container-130000864.html

REMINDER - Leading Dry Bulk and Container Shipping Companies Presenting at Capital Link’s 14th Annual New York Maritime Forum September 21, 2022 in NYC

NEW YORK, Sept. 15, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Senior executives from leading publicly listed Dry Bulk and Container shipping companies will discuss the trends, developments and outlook of the global commodities and shipping markets. The panels will take place at Capital Link’s 14th Annual New York Maritime Forum on Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at the Metropolitan Club in New York City.

Featuring senior executives from 31 shipping and maritime companies, the Forum is organized in partnership with DNB and in cooperation with the New York Stock Exchange, NASDAQ, and The Port Authority of NY & NJ. The event is known for its large attendance by investors, shipowners and capital providers.

The Forum features a series of panel discussions as well as 1x1 meetings between investors and executives from shipping companies.

Registration is complimentary for institutional investors and shipping companies. To register please go to the link below:
https://forums.capitallink.com/shipping/2022NYmaritime/agenda.html

SHIPPING SECTOR PANELS
The panels will discuss the latest trends, developments and outlook in the specific shipping sector focusing, among other, on demand and supply fundamentals, the global energy markets, operational and commercial issues, freight rates, asset values, and more.

DRY BULK SECTOR PANEL
8:15 - 8:55 am EST

Moderator: Mr. Tate Sullivan, Managing Director, Senior Industrials Analyst, Maritime Research – Maxim Group

Panelists:

Mr. Gary Vogel, CEO - Eagle Bulk Shipping (NASDAQ:EGLE)

Mr. John C. Wobensmith, President & CEO - Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE:GNK)

Dr. Loukas Barmparis, President - Safe Bulkers (NYSE:SB)

****Mr. Hamish Norton, President - Star Bulk Carriers (NASDAQ:SBLK)****

Wondering if anyone is planning to participate / listen-in (if possible) &/or would be able to make a transcript, notes, impressions, etc. available???

Star Bulk posted a presentation to their website this morning. In it they highlight $370.3mm of cash as of September 9th, which is just after paying the recent dividend. The dividend policy calls for $268.8mm of cash on the balance sheet, with excess cash paid in dividends. That would imply roughly $100mm of excess cash at September 9th, or $1.00 per share.

Two unknowns: 1) Has the company paid their debt amortization of ~$47mm per quarter yet (i.e. does that get paid at quarter end or all along the way during the quarter) and 2) Will the pace of cash generation match the pace thus far. Through Sept 9th, the company generated ~$1.4mm of cash per day (100/71 days).

My base case scenario would have the debt getting paid along the way and that they earn the $1.4mm for the rest of the quarter, which would get us to ~$130mm of cash or a dividend of $1.25 per share.

Best case scenario: IF the $47mm of debt is already paid and the $100mm excess cash is AFTER debt repayment, then they generated $147mm of cash thus far ($2.05mm per day). At $2.0mm per day during the rest of the quarter, that would get us to $142mm available for the dividend, or roughly $1.40.

Personally, I am now targeting $1.25 for the 3Q dividend.

https://www.starbulk.com/media/uploads_file/2022/09/15/p1gd06uduuga6vutu2p3p9s234.pdf

Index Quote Change Change% Local
Baltic Dry 1595.00 187.00 13.28% 09/14
Baltic Capesize 1565.00 486.00 45.04% 09/14
Baltic Panamax 2145.00 71.00 3.42% 09/14
Baltic Supramax 1505.00 21.00 1.42% 09/14
Baltic Handysize 893.00 9.00 1.02% 09/14

09/15/2022 Update
Baltic Dry Index +1.07% to 1,612
Capesize +4.65% to $13,580
Panamax -2.76% to $17,477
Supramax +1.58% to $16,820

09/13/2022 Update
Baltic Dry Index +12.10% to 1,408
Capesize +42.78% to $8,952
Panamax +8.54% to $17,330
Supramax +0.78% to $16,325

09/12/2022 Update
Baltic Dry Index +3.54% to 1,256
Capesize +12.49% to $6,270
Panamax +3.34% to $15,966
Supramax -0.17% to $16,199

09/09/2022 Update
Baltic Dry Index +2.97% to 1,213
Capesize +3.09% to $5,574
Panamax +6.71% to $15,450
Supramax -0.12% to $16,227