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AT&T Inc. (T-PA)

NYSE - Nasdaq Real-time price. Currency in USD
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26.00+0.09 (+0.35%)
At close: 04:00PM EST
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  • J
    Jim
    Financial Facts:
    1 Over 54B EBITDA in 2020 and in 2021.
    2 Net debt is about 3 x EBITDA.
    3 Market cap is also about 3 X EBITDA when interest rates are close to zero.
    4 Whatever they are using to invest is to increase earnings.
    5 6B per year cost reductions underway.
    6 7B per year less dividend payments staying in the coffers.
    7 6B per year in less interest payments as a result of the reduced debt with spin-off and improved credit rating (cost reductions, less debt, less dividends).
    8 CFO said 8-9B to be paid in dividends post spin: 8.5B/7.14B = 1.19$/share or 6% for Legacy T @ 20$ in a very low interest environment.
    9 Any share price appreciation is on top and above the 6%.
    10 Discovery deal is additional gravy here with Malone, Zaslav steering ship. Note Malone outperformed Buffet for many years.
    11 If there is an exchange the share count will substantially drop. Under an exchange scenario, share count reduction from 7.14B to 5.35B results in 1.50-1.70$ dividends/share (6.25 to 7% yield) with a lean focused company generating an EBITDA of 45B or 8.5$ EBITDA/share based on LTM and 43B less debt. The 6B cost cutting program adds 1$ EBITDA per share.
    12 IMHO it would be smart to sell the 70% stake in DirecTV for 15B+ and use another 10B of the 43B debt reduction and repurchase 850m shares to drop the float down from 5.35B post-exchange to 4.5B shares and you get over 10$ EBITDA per share (Legacy T has a trailing EBITDA of 45B minus DirecTV contribution). 10$ EBITDA per share means 100$ per share under this scenario.
  • J
    JG
    Per Yahoo From nance, book vale of T is 22.94 per share.

    At this point, T is like a CD. It should stay where it is at a minimum. If it goes much below book value, the company should fold.

    At this point, Mgmt has squeezed all value out of this company while taking generous income for themselves and Stephenson.

    Their split off of Warner and dividend cut have been disasters for shareholders at this point. I would have liked to see a temporary cut in mgmt and Stevenson’s benefits (to show mgmt will share in temporary pain) coupled with insider buying and company buybacks to show confidence in T’s future.

    On the other hand, I do think there will be a bounce-back next year due to end of tax loss selling and recognition that the split off of Warner and dividend cut are good for the longterm, which they are.

    Just my opinions.
  • G
    G
    T is significantly undervalued and I am new to the shares but have been buying aggressively in lock-step with this capitulation in the shares to accumulate 2000 shares...now owing the spin-off that would re-rate to compete with a Netflix multiple and frees mgmt to optimize remainCo to finally start stumping out T-mobile and move more into internet of everywhere with 5G+......I will take my divvy payment and wait for several event driven catalysts to drive T shares back above $30 very early 2022 and start etching a path to $40 PRE-Spinoff...
  • b
    bud
    AT&T , Has Paid Safe HUGE Dividend's , For More Then 30 Year's , And Down We Only Have , 9 To 10% Div's And I Am Getting Only , 1.5% To 2% At Our Bank's ? WHY ? And When People Realize , The Pure Profit's In Owning , AT&T Stock , Their Stock Price Will Return To $35.00 To $40.00 , And The 9% Dividend's , And When Warner Bros And Discovery Merge , AT&T Stock Will Rise To $60.00 To $70.00 , We Our Just Waiting For Our TAX , Write Off , Buy Back Is Coming Soon , And We Will Be Buying Back Our AT&T , Stock , GLTA ,
  • R
    Rick
    $65 Billion in Broadband Infrastructure. Jeff should have mentioned in his update. On the earnings call, Stankey mentioned that T is well position and should get its fair share.
  • L
    LearnToPlay
    T should be buying and retiring all the shares they can why it's trading under book value. They should be retiring all the shares they can with that cash flow and even cut the dividend now in 1/2 and use the money saved on the dividend pay out to retire shares. They should also be taking managements salaries and buying shares to retire , They also should whacking heads the dead wood and taking the salaries and buying and retiring shares. That is the best thing T can do in the long run for shareholders , employees both working and retired because even the employees are getting FD by Wall Street. I think long term splitting off HBO MAX is the wrong thing to do but if they do , yes you will make more money in the short run , T is now leveraging HBO MAX with their Cell unlimited plans and it showed in the growth last Q , I think a ad version of HBO MAX at a lower cost or FREE once the ads pay for it is the way to go. HBO Max around the world that has billions of eyes watching that ads can reach all at once , That is more powerful than you know . Just my opinion but something that is more powerful than any thing else that T could every come up with . The real power in the future is ads on HBO MAX and billions watching it. Just my opinion and what I purchased T to see. but either way at the price T is now trading for you will make money whether the spin off happens and you get both pieces or T cuts the dividend and keeps HBO MAX to leverage the future in cell phone sales ,plans and selling ads on an HBO version .
  • G
    Giantsfan
    Besides stock being down 30% since the TWD announcement, the stock was in the $38 range pre-pandemic (Feb 2020). I know there was a 5G auction since then that added billions of debt. But T is a profitable company with improved HBO max, and selling various parts of the business for billions. The stock downturn loss is much so greater than the billions lost with DTV acquisition. I don't view the TW acquisition as a substantial loss when all is said and done. Hedge and mutual funds are selling T to buy high tech. Prior management decisions have been simply terrible, and management not clarifying TWD and dividend details will cause 18 months of uncertainty. But is the stock price drop since Feb. 2020 justified? Guess it doesn't matter because "it is what it is".
  • R
    Rick
    Stock up nicely in down market. News Monday? John Stankey, AT&T CEO, gives keynote at UBS on Monday, December 6, 2021, noon ET, live webcast available on AT&T Investor Relations site.
  • P
    PaulL
    What happened
    Shares of AT&T ( T -2.02% ) fell 4.4% on Tuesday after comments by one of the telecom's key executives sparked concerns of slowing growth among investors.
    So what
    Speaking during the Wells Fargo Technology Media and Telecom Summit, AT&T Communications CEO Jeff McElfresh indicated that the strong customer growth the company experienced over the past year was likely to decelerate.
    "We suspect the activity level for postpaid in 2022 is probably going to subside," McElfresh said. "We're not forecasting it to be as strong as it was this year."

    AT&T's stock price sank on Tuesday. Image source: Getty Images.
    Postpaid subscribers are some of the most sought-after customers in the communications industry. They pay monthly bills and are typically among the most profitable customers for wireless carriers.
    McElfresh hinted that with pandemic-related stimulus measures unlikely to persist, more cash-strapped consumers may be less likely to upgrade their wireless plans.
    "The stimulus programs have put some extra cash in household budgets," McElfresh said. "We're not expecting that level of activity to continue into 2022 and beyond."
    Now what
    After the market close, AT&T provided investors with an update. The company noted the "healthy" increase in its wireless service revenue and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in recent quarters. AT&T also said that its simplified pricing plans and improved network performance should help it continue to attract and retain wireless subscribers. In turn, AT&T believes it can "profitably increase its wireless market share."
    However, judging by the sharp decline in its stock price, investors aren't so sure the telecom giant can deliver on its growth targets.
  • R
    Ray
    It's sad we are getting excited to hit 23, 23.4 when the stock should be in high 30s.
  • C
    CuteDog
    CNBC interviewed a AT&T mild Bull this morning suggesting T will be the better telecommunications stock going forward. But long term keep an eye on management’s ability to execute.
  • s
    simby
    Overbought and oversold stocks can be easily traced with the Relative Strength Index (RSI), where an RSI result of over 70 would be overbought, and any rate below 30 would indicate oversold conditions. An RSI rate of 50 would represent a neutral market momentum. The current RSI for T stock in for the last two-week period is set at 23.66, with the RSI for the last a single of trading hit 18.80, and the three-weeks RSI is set at 26.99 for AT&T Inc. [T]. The present Moving Average for the last 50 days of trading for this stock 25.62, while it was recorded at 24.03 for the last single week of trading, and 28.29 for the last 200 days.
  • J
    Joe
    How come management never has anything to say to shareholders regarding share price?
    It’s always: We are creating long term shareholder value!
    If so why have shares cratered the past year, five years ten years!
    Management at T are horrible and don’t have a clue
  • A
    Ant
    Can anyone clarify- when should I enter this stock so I qualify for a dividend? (If a dividend is to be announced). Should I build a position Now in December ? Or the beginning of January? Thank you!
  • C
    Corona
    The perfect storm is brewing. The average person checks their cell phone 250 times a day. They give up food rather than get rid of their cell phone service. The market will only grow no matter what news media tells you otherwise. Buying opportunity of a lifetime here.
  • S
    SeanE
    This whole mess will come down to what dividend they pay after the spin-off. The stock would stabilize or even go up if they gave those details.
    They have said it's $8B to $9B total dividends. They need to quantify that with a hard number and tell us the % that Warner is of T. T will lose 25% (Share of Warner of T) of it's equity stock in the deal. (We need to know Warner % of T to be more accurate)
    We know they currently pay $14.9B in dividends. Let's say they decide to pay $8B in dividends. If they lose 25% of the equity, then the formula for the new dividend yield is easy. 8/14.9/.75 = 71.5% of the current dividend. Current dividend today is 9.1%. so 71.5% of that is the new dividend = 6.5%.
    All the other stuff is noise.
    This is a dividend stock and that dividend will control it's future.
    The cut of the dividend is supposed to be offset by getting WBD shares, so that should be a wash, but the future dividend is what needs clarifying. No matter what anyone argues between now and the spin-off, we can't know the future stock price without this yield. So we have to make our best judgement and guess.
    ** (Please don't write about exchanges or share count - it's all irrelevant because the equity loss with come from reduced shares or reduced price. Either way it all washes out because less shares means higher dividend per share of a higher share price, but the same yield and same number of WBD shares given to us.)
    I'm done arguing with people who claim T will be filing BK or some other nonsense. This company makes a lot of profit and yet the stock is cheap. But there is a reason and we all know those past bad decisions.
    Investing is all about predicting the future and you buy when you think a company has a catalyst for positive news flow and/or better earnings and you sell if you think they only have negative news in their future. Notice I used the word FUTURE. I don't care about the past. Is the future any better than today and if so will it move the stock. With T, it might not even require good news, but simply detailed news about the dividend.
    If that future dividend is truly 6.5%, then the stock moves quickly to $26 to reduce it to 5.8%. Which at 5.8% would still make it the highest yielding stock in the S&P 500 that has less than a 100% payout ratio on the dividend. T has said it will be 40-43%, I don't care if it's a 50% ratio. it's stable and better than 100% of the other stocks out there.
    That's the simple truth. The BOD controls our fate and they currently seem content to let T stock keep dropping. I can't predict what they will do an so I have no crystal ball as to what the next 4-6 months will bring. T may drop 10% or rise 10% in the next few months because we have no visibility on the dividend.
    Maybe Stankey says something on the Dec 6 meeting or the BOD waits until the first dividend to announce it. It's impossible to predict.
    As for me, I bought in big yesterday because I like the future 6.5% rate, but that is not a guaranteed yield and in the meantime I have to endure the torture of owning this stock. But I will not sell because I think T will have a better news flow ahead. (it can't get any worse than losing $100B in 5 yrs on two stupid company mergers.)
    With their massive cash flow, I don't care what the debt or equity will end up because I know they can pay the dividend and that's what I will own it for.
  • s
    simby
    if you bought @ 22.20 yesterday, you got the dividend today,

    just starting the comeback
  • R
    Raj Raj
    Jack McElfresh
    Made poor comments in Wells Fargo Tech Summit. Summary: AT&Ts growth depends largely on continued government stimulus checks.
    How do such people get hired? I use AT&T products and they are rock solid in technology and quality.
    This is beginning to reinforce what many have been saying on this Board - T is infested with poor quality management. Motorola, Kodak, GE, Blackberry, - is T gonna be another icon cratering or can shareholders save their investment?
  • T
    Tony
    T - $23.14 / +$0.91 and up 4.07% at 1:47pmEST
    The 5 Day Simple Moving Average is $23.25
    The 8 Day Simple Moving Average is $23.78
    The current RSI is 35.07 (yesterday 20.38)
    The first gap up starts at $23.68
    The first gap ends at $23.85

    T will capture all the above.
  • H
    HotMess Tortuga (Ro)
    Bought 12,000 shares of T today near $22.50. Anyone who sold below this price needs to have their heads checked but THANK you for dumping your shares, to my benefit. If confused about the timing of the spin off, look at the draft S1 published in mid November. The draft has some key blanks to be filled in and notes an estimated closing date of mid 2022. But one thing is clear - the company will in fact reduce a huge amount of debt due to the spin off, and become more invested and focused on its future versus just trying to please stockholders with a high dividend in the short term.