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Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. (TRQ)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed price. Currency in USD
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26.87-0.67 (-2.43%)
At close: 04:00PM EDT
26.30 -0.57 (-2.12%)
After hours: 04:57PM EDT
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  • V
    I am not selling this. No matter what.
  • G
    Copper has entered a bear market, which may indicate a stronger chance that recession is coming.
    The metal, which is an economic barometer, fell 24% from its peak in May 2021 on Friday.
    The risk of a recession is gathering pace as interest rate hikes and inflation choke global growth.
  • U
    The market is saying the RIO buyout offer for C$34, will succeed.

    Without RIO, TRQ fails.

    Everyone knows that.

    However, if you believe otherwise, remember to vote NO to the RIO buyout offer.

    Otherwise, C$34 is all you get and you'll be happy with it.
  • M
    the silence is deafening
  • g
    "A China SOE should bid for TRQ . . and w help of Mongolia > force RIO out
    They could force RIO to sell at the TRQ final bid price.
    US and UK sanctions against Eastern Blk countries cont. violate international Law . There is no G.D. LAW anymore , in international trade
    . . Why would China want to continue to be shafted by high raw materials prices made so by US-Western geopolitical "full spectrum dominance" machinations
  • Z
    In regards to the drawbell firing:

    "The Company is assessing any net positive impact that this may have on timing of sustainable production of Panel 0 which is currently forecast in the first half of 2023 and will update the market as appropriate."

    Given how much TRQ withholds information, we probably won't hear any updates on this until after they begin sustainable production lol.
  • D
    When is this drama going to be over?
  • G
    Rio will FAIL in its max. pressure deal tactics with a small raise to make a binding offer with a "take it or leave it" approach....but the underground cashflows will make this offer a fractional number!!! TRQ a LONG waiting for the very short or near-term underground returns!!!!
  • g
    Fair Value of TRQ stock , depends on (among other things) the
    fair value of copper , which -- w the west going into some kind of recession -- depends on China's (Li's) economic plans . . . Sheez !
  • K
    KEVIN (mrpancake)
    almost 95K traded after hours 26.65 +0.18 (+0.68%)
  • M
    I didnt thought we gonna fall back to offer price, but i am glad. Added an other 50k today...

    I bet on a 5 for 3 stock swap... even i still think 150$ is needed but Rio knows how to scam otherwise they wouldnt be what they are
  • G
    check out Mongolia is saying sustainable production is being pulled forward!!! surprise surprise....TRQ heading higher!!!
  • Z
    If you haven't seen it yet, check out the drawbell explosion. Looks freaking cool.
  • R
    June 14, 2022 - 5:00 pm
    MONTREALTurquoise Hill Resources Ltd. (TSX: TRQ) (NYSE: TRQ) ("Turquoise Hill" or the "Company") today announced that the first drawbell of the Hugo North underground mine at Oyu Tolgoi (“OT”) is scheduled to be fired on 17 June 2022. This is ahead of expectations and represents continued progress in terms of caving related milestones.

    The Company is assessing any net positive impact that this may have on timing of sustainable production of Panel 0 which is currently forecast in the first half of 2023 and will update the market as appropriate.
  • P
    TRQ Valuation Estimate.

    Rio Tinto made an all cash proposal to acquire the Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd shares it does not already own (99 Million shares) for a cash consideration of C$34.00 per share. Using an exchange rate of (1 US $ = 1.27 C $) this is about US $26.77 per share.

    The value we are to put on Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd (TRQ) shares is critically dependent on the future market prices of coppper and gold, and, to the estimates of future debt and Free Cash Flow (FCF).

    TRQ has a value which is significantly enhanced by a premium associated with Rio Tinto's cash bid.
    Shareholders wil lose the large potential share price appreciation of TRQ shares if the Rio Tinto cash bid is accepted.
    TRQ has increasing value as time passes due to it's debt decreasing to zero, and, to positive Free Cash Flow in coming years.

    The Oyu Tolgoi - Technical Report 2020, OTTR 2020 uses conservative estimates for commotity prices.
    3.08 $/lb for copper, 1,292 $/oz for gold, 19.00 $/oz for silver.
    My financial model uses more realistic commodity market prices of those as at 25-Feb-2021.
    4.32 $/lb for copper, 1,792 $/oz for gold, 28.02 $/oz for silver.

    The Oyu Tolgoi - Technical Report 2020, OTTR 2020 identifies a Net Cash Flow After Tax - $US 2,777M for year 2028.
    My financial model using higher commodity prices indicates TRQ will have zero debt and free cash Flow of $US 4,666M for year 2028.

    If TRQ pays a dividend in 2028 that is half of it's Free Cash Flow (Dividend Cover 2) it will distribute $US 2,333M to the holders of the outstanding 201,231,430 TRQ shares. This is a divdend of $US 11.59 per share. In this scenario, if the shares have a dividend yield of 5.00%, then we can deduce that TRQ shares will trade at $US 231.80 per share.

    The TRQ share price is sensitive to the level of dividend cover, (5.00% dividend yield) as follows.

    Dividend Cover. - 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4
    TRQ Share Price. - $185.40 $210.80 $231.80 $257.60 $289.80 $331.20

    The value of Rio Tinto's cash bid of C$34.00 (US $26.77) can now be assessed in the context the potential price of $231.80 in 2028. Rio Tinto's cash bid should be at a premium level which recognises the loss of upside share price potential if the cash bid is accepled.
    The current bid is derisory and should be rejacted by shareholders. A far more realistic cash bis should be in the region which rewards TRQ shareholder and allows Rio Tinto to acquire the outstanding shares at a discount to their potential value. Accordingly the Rio Tinto bid should be in the region of C$ 165.00 (US $ 130.00) per share.

    Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd (TRQ), Oyu Tolgoi - Technical Report 2020, OTTR 2020 - 28-Aug-2020.

    Page 12, Note 4. - 4. The metal prices used in determining the CuEq formulae are:
    3.08 $/lb for copper, 1,292 $/oz for gold, 19.00 $/oz for silver, and 10.00 $/lb for molybdenum.

    Page 336. - Table 22.5 Statement of cash flows (100% project basis).
    Net Cash Flow After Tax - $ US Millions, 2,777 for year 2028.

    Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd (TRQ), Oyu Tolgoi, (31) - Rio Tinto Makes All Cash Proposal to Acquire Full Ownership of Turquoise Hill - 14-Mar-2022. - Cash Consideration of C$34.00.
  • D
    It takes a long time to evaluate the offer...
  • D
    Namsrai said COVID restrictions in Mongolia, the recent lockdowns in China, logistical issues and changes to domestic labour laws meant they could go over budget again.

    "The announced budget increase is ...probably likely to go over, although it is difficult to say by how much," Namsrai said.
  • D
    $FCX conversation
    Bloomberg podcast with Goldman Sachs metals strategist, Nick Snowdon. 42 minutes, Very bullish long term
    #SCCO #TRQ
  • G
    Get setup for Pentwater to come with its fairness opinion!!! TRQ heading higher
  • R
    Goldman Sachs metals strategist Nick Snowdon

    "Speaking with Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast on Wednesday, Mr Snowdon predicted copper could rise from its current price of around $US9300 ($13,000) a tonne to $US15,000 ($20,000), and “we don’t rule out [that] copper could be a $US50,000 ($70,000), could be a $US100,000 ($140,000) commodity”.

    “Green” demand from EVs, charging infrastructure and the renewable energy sector was only about 1.5 million tonnes today, but that is tipped to sharply increase to between six and seven million tonnes by the end of the decade, largely driven by China.

    “When we look at the outlook for the copper market over the course of the next three, five, 10 years, what we see are essentially impossibly large deficits developing over that timeframe,” he said."

    Ohly isht - that's a lot of $$$$$$$$$$

    And Rio want's to get TRQ on the cheap lol -