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Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
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From Seeking Alpha!
• Despite having less than 1% of global auto market share, Tesla's market cap is now greater than that of all non-Chinese automakers, combined.
• Tesla is clearly priced for massive growth, yet half of its current products are aging and its development pipeline is sparse.
• The Tesla Semi, new Roadster, and Cybertruck have all been unveiled; they are already facing significant competition from other automakers.
• Even if Tesla's most ambitious assumptions were to play out as planned, it would not be enough to justify the current valuation.
• Tesla is already seeing declining market share in the most mature EV markets; as this trend continues in 2021, the growth narrative will likely come under pressure.
At present, Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has just four electric vehicle models in active production: the Model S, the Model X, the Model 3, and the Model Y. The Model S and Model X, while extremely innovative at the time of their introduction, are now aging platforms in decline, leaving the Model 3 and Model Y to carry ever more of the load. While both have proven popular, their addressable market is finite, as evidenced by Tesla’s having had to resort repeatedly to price cuts to keep demand from ebbing throughout 2020, even in the supposedly near-limitless Chinese market.
CEO Elon Musk has stated that Tesla aims to produce 20 million vehicles per year by 2030, far beyond the wildest peak annual demand projections for the Model 3 and Model Y, combined. To achieve its goal, Tesla will have to bring a host of new offerings to market over the course of the next decade. Yet the company has struggled of late to expand its product development pipeline. As I discussed in a recent article, the Tesla Semi, which has yet to enter production more than three years after it was unveiled, is one clear example of this issue.
Not much upside and 80-90% chance that top hit at 880$. IBD advised that 6/7 indicators showed that Tesla is reaching a climax run. After a climax run, comes a BIG pullback.
P/E ratio- all time high
P/S ratio- all time high
RSI- off by one point from 2013 all time high
Tesla expected to make 31B in revenue but has a 800B market cap!! If anyone can find any other stock that has ever done this in the history of stocks (tech, auto, whatever) please give me the name. Apple disrupted the cell phone market when they developed the first touch screen iPhone (35B in revenue at the time - 175B market cap), Amazon disrupting brick and mortar business (amongst all other things)(had a 3600 p/e at one point but were making 55-60B in revenue and had a ~150B market cap), Google- I’m sure you’ve heard of them (highest p/e they ever had was around mid 50s), Netflix disrupting streaming business (traded at a about 450 P/E at their highest, while making close to 4B in revenue and had a 45B market cap- highest PS ratio of about 12).
So just compare Tesla to any other major tech company and you’ll see the insane overvaluation here (even though as it stands Tesla makes most of their money from selling cars!). Up close to 900% since March. People need to get a close look and see that numbers like that can only be compared to .com bubble. Welcome to the EV bubble. You have companies like NKLA with no revenue valued close to 10B. There’s a new EV company every other day and competition is EVERYWHERE. Tesla could sit at this price for the next 3-5 (or more) years and still be grossly overvalued.
Reality is Tesla is expected to make 31B this year, 45B next year and 65B in 2023. With this growth, fair value they should be around 300-400B market cap and that’s still being very generous.
Don’t worry, there was plenty of blind FOMO buyers in the .com bubble as well. They would speak the same language as the pumpers here. Keep in mind that it took investors 10-15 years to make their money back (and that’s if they invested in amazon). Looks like history will repeat itself.
This coming earnings report should do the job! Y’all better hope they smash expectations by at least 100%! Since they barely met 2020 delivery expectations, I expect a modest beat at best, then let the massive selling begin (sell the news)!
Leaving off with this. On 12/3 Musk stated to his employees that Tesla needs “to cut costs or the firm's stock price could be “crushed like a soufflé under a sledgehammer.” - that was around 550$ SP. Well we’re now ~55% higher and I am sure Tesla didn’t magically make any drastic changes to their cost cutting within a month. Should be a big warning sign ⚠️
I have extended my short exposure MASSIVLY.
The bubble actually stops and we will see abutting never seen at WALLSTREET.
Tesla to Produce 800 million cars?
PE is often used as a realistic barometer of a companies value. With an auto producer that PE could be extended to cars produced. For example, Toyota produced 8.8 million cars last year to achieve earnings. Their PE is 9.21. This indicates that Toyota needs to produce 8.8 million cars times 9.21 years of earnings to meet market cap. This total is 81,480,000 vehicles.
Tesla produced 500,000 cars last year. Their PE is 1,628 and this is not a fully diluted PE. Multiply the two and the total is 814 million cars. Fully diluted and this number nears 900 million. There is not enough raw material capacity to achieve this in the next 10 years.
World auto production in 2019 was 91,786,861. Tesla, at their present margin ratios which would include the sale of regulatory credits, would need to sell every car in the world for 10 years to have a PE similar to Toyota. The Tesla market cap is absurd at best. Buy it now and you will pay a hefty price in the next few years.
Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2020 after market close on Wednesday, January 27, 2021. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q4 and full year 2020 update, which will be available on Tesla’s Investor Relations website. Tesla management will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at 3:30 p.m. Pacific Time (6:30 p.m. Eastern Time) to discuss the Company’s financial and business results and outlook.
Good luck and GOD bless,
I admit to getting caught up in the FOMO thing, and thinking this might be a stock for making a quick 1-2k profit I could put to good use soon Moved in, out, in, out for a couple of days, between prices of 850 and 836. In between time, I did a lot of reading. Now I'm all out having lost just $168. Lesson learned. No regrets, even if it does hit 1000+. Too many things not making sense with this stock's meteoric rise, valuations, actual production, and competition ramping up.
Market caps calculated today according to yahoo finance with eur to usd conversion rate 1.22
Toyota 208.346B usd
Volkswagen 81.098B eur = 98.939B usd
Daimler 60.69B eur = 74.041B usd
BMW 44.782B eur = 54.634B usd
Ford 39.486B usd
GM 72.138B usd
Hyundai 49.554B usd
Honda 47.349B usd
Fiat Chrysler 31.264B usd
Peugeot 19.781B eur = 24.132B usd
Total 699.883B usd
Tesla 804.37B usd
Conclusion Tesla is over 100 billion usd bigger in market cap than all the other manufacturers mentioned above.
Tesla is the first stock we have ever bought. Until now it has been only Vanguard 500 index. This adventure would be exciting if not so scary! What have I done?
Thanks to all the Tesla sellers ... for the buying opportunities in Tesla and the market today
TSLA Global EV share:
2020 YTD 3Q 26.0%
Price analysts thinking 4Q could be big for Tesla, Wedbush price ups to $950 to $1250, GS maintains strong position
Don’t let one red day misguide you about TSLA! We have many strong catalysts ahead of us! Tesla Breaking $1000 by March 🚀 also For the true TSLA investors who believe in the companies future n wanna show off 😂... after getting scammed like 3x I finally found a legit site that sells quality TESLA Merch... this morning I bought a TSLA mug off all that TSLA money LETS GOOOO 🚀🚀🚀 more gains to come guys‼️
their link is:
Many believe that sell side analysts like the guy at Wedbush rate companies based on the agenda of his investment bank, rather than the real fundamental story. In Europe, Tesla is getting pummeled by the EV competition from major players like VW and Renault. Sales in the U.S. are not great, yet this analyst is incessantly cheerleading future prospects for the very competitive China market. Then with overbought conditions (a move from $400 to $850 in 8 weeks, an RSI at 80) he's still raising the price target. It's irresponsible for traders, and many will be sorry they listened to the Wedbush analyst and bought at the top.
lots of GAPs to fill...if this is the correction, support is at $740 (fills a gap) 20dMA...then $614 50dMA...
dan Ives has lost his magic. first time Tesla is down on his upgrade to 950. market is in a correction now finally.
GM could be be considered an EV start up company, that just happens to have 118 facilities across the U.S., including 11 assembly plants; 25 stamping, propulsion, component and battery plants; 19 parts distribution centers; and two engineering campuses, that has 1/12th the market cap of Tesla, and a heathy profitable ICE market as a buffer.
DETROIT (AP) — Tesla Inc. is balking at recalling about 159,000 vehicles with potentially defective touch screens, so U.S. safety regulators are moving to force the company to take action.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration on Wednesday sent a letter to Tesla saying it has tentatively determined that the screens are defective and pose a safety risk because they can cause backup cameras to go dark and defrosters to malfunction.
The agency wouldn't comment beyond the letter, which is a rare step toward a public hearing and eventual legal action. Experts say the letter means that Tesla has resisted doing a recall that NHTSA feels is necessary.
“It's obvious to me that Tesla told NHTSA to go pound sand, so what they're about to get, they've earned it,” said Frank Borris, a former head of the agency's Office of Defects Investigation who now runs a safety consulting business.
Messages were left Wednesday seeking comment from Tesla, which is based in Palo Alto, California.
Last June, the agency opened an investigation into complaints that the giant touch screens would go dark in certain 2012 through 2018 Model S cars and 2016 through 2018 Model X Tesla vehicles. It upgraded the probe to an engineering analysis in November.
The letter says the agency has determined that the screens are defective because their computer processors have a finite number of program-and-erase cycles. NHTSA says the screens would fail in five to six years, which isn't sufficient for safety-critical features.
“The lack of a functioning windshield defogging and defrosting system may decrease the driver's visibility in inclement weather, increasing the risk of a crash,” the letter said.
In data submitted by Tesla, the agency found more than 12,000 customer complaints, field reports, warranty claims and other claims related to the screens, the letter said.
NHTSA also determined that the failure rate for the screens is higher than the rate for vehicles involved in prior recalls for similar problems.
Tesla tried to fix the problem with several over-the-air software updates, but NHTSA said it tentatively believes the fixes are insufficient.
“I think it's planned obsolescence, which requires physical replacement of a part which Tesla tried to gloss over by sending a software update,” said Jason Levine, executive director of the nonprofit Center for Auto Safety.
The screen failures also can cause the loss of audible chimes and alerts that are part of Tesla’s “Autopilot” driver-assist system.
The letter says that if Tesla formally decides not to do a recall, it has to provide NHTSA with an explanation. The agency can schedule a public meeting on matter and could turn it over to the Justice Department for legal action, Borris said.
Borris, who reviewed the letter, called it very thorough and said NHTSA has a strong case should Tesla decide to challenge the agency in court.
longest bull market ending, return of da 🐻 bear
California adds $1,500 incentive for new EVs, total state + fed incentives now up to $13.5K.
Footnote: This does not apply to Tesla buyers.
THIS IS A CAR COMPANY! If anyone can show me profits made on any other part of the business I would be happy to listen but all other areas are not profitable yet and unless they can lower the cost on the other technologies they never will be.
I wonder who was the genius who bought this at $880.
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