TSLA Mar 2021 55.000 call

OPR - OPR Delayed price. Currency in USD
389.61
0.00 (0.00%)
As of 11:58AM EST. Market open.
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Previous close389.61
Open391.15
Bid517.80
Ask525.75
Strike55.00
Expiry date2021-03-19
Day's range389.55 - 391.82
Contract rangeN/A
Volume46
Open interestN/A
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    (Bloomberg) -- When Tesla Inc. reports earnings Wednesday, Elon Musk will be trying for a repeat performance.The electric-car maker’s shares have been on an unprecedented ascent since the chief executive officer crammed his last release with positive updates. Tesla didn’t just blow earnings estimates out of the water, returning to profitability faster than Wall Street was expecting. Musk also reported being ahead of schedule opening a China plant and bringing out the Model Y crossover, kicking off a rally that’s been buoyed since then by record deliveries.Tesla will have to clear a higher bar this time. Analysts are expecting an adjusted profit of $1.74 a share for the fourth quarter, a little short of what the company earned both in the prior three months and year-ago period. But there are several levers Musk, 48, could pull to support the stock, which has climbed 33% already this year and 119% since he last reported results.Model YIn the months since Musk said the Model Y would be ready to launch this summer, sleuths have spotted prototypes in warm- and cold-weather states, spurring speculation that production could begin even sooner.The Model Y also has shown up on the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s database for tracking vehicle identification numbers, or VINs. The Performance AWD version of the crossover also has appeared on a California Air Resources Board site that hints at driving range.If Model Y deliveries are imminent, it will be another indication Tesla has turned a corner. Musk predicted during the last earnings call that the vehicle will outsell the S, X and 3 combined, without giving a time frame. While the CEO has a tendency to over-hype, SUVs are hot worldwide, so it’s not outlandish to expect the Model Y to catch on quickly. One bull has predicted it could carry the company to at least 550,000 total deliveries this year, from 367,500 in 2019.AutopilotIn October, Musk said Tesla was pushing to release a beefed-up version of a feature within its suite of driver-assistance technologies branded Autopilot. He expected a more advanced mode Tesla bills as “Full Self Driving” would be available for limited release to people who paid extra to get early access to certain software updates.Musk described a “feature-complete” version of the system that would enable Tesla cars to drive passengers from their house to work, “most likely without interventions,” though the driver would still need to supervise.If Musk pulled this off, it could generate more than just bragging rights, which brings us to the next trick Tesla could have up its sleeve.Deferred RevenueEarnings improved in the last quarter in part because the company recognized about $30 million of deferred revenue based on Musk releasing Smart Summon, a controversial addition to the Autopilot suite. The feature allows Tesla owners to tap their smartphone and remotely call their car to drive itself from elsewhere in a parking lot.Musk has been charging customers for performance features before Tesla’s vehicles are actually capable and socking away that revenue to be recognized later. At the end of September, the company said it expected to cash in on $662 million of deferred revenue in the following 12 months.Regulatory CreditsAnother revenue source Tesla can tap into that’s difficult for analysts to model for are the regulatory credits the company can sell to other automakers that need them to comply with emissions standards.Tesla generated $461 million in revenue from these credits in the first nine months of 2019, up 42% from the year-earlier period. Analysts expect this business to take off in the years to come, since Europe and China are making their car-pollution rules stricter.Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV reached a deal last year to pool its fleet with Tesla’s in Europe. The amount of money Fiat Chrysler has said it will fork over—about $2 billion through 2023—will effectively fund the cost of the new factory Musk plans to open near Berlin, Ben Kallo, an analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co., wrote in a report earlier this month.ChinaChina was a source of much optimism for Tesla toward the end of the year, with the company handing over the first Model 3s assembled at its new factory near Shanghai to local employees. Deliveries to the public started the first week of January and was a dance-worthy occasion.The coronavirus that’s claimed the lives of at least 100 people in China’s Hubei province has sent markets tumbling and raised concern about exacerbating the nation’s auto-sales slump. Electric vehicles could be hit particularly hard since demand has been concentrated in major cities, Robin Zhu, a Bernstein analyst, warned in a report Monday.The public-health crisis casts a cloud over a promising story Musk could still shed more light on, focusing on the longer term. As of the end of last year, only about 30% of the parts being used to build Model 3s near Shanghai were sourced locally.  The goal is for that number to reach 100% by the end of the year, reducing the company's costs and enabling Tesla to keep lowering prices and increasing sales.(Updates earnings per share consensus estimate in third paragraph)To contact the authors of this story: Dana Hull in San Francisco at dhull12@bloomberg.netDavid Welch in Southfield at dwelch12@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Craig Trudell at ctrudell1@bloomberg.netFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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    (Bloomberg Opinion) -- The greatest shakeup in automobile history reordered the stock market this month when a minnow grew larger than a whale.Tesla Inc., the 17-year-old Palo Alto maker of battery-powered, zero-emission vehicles, is now the second-largest automaker measured by market capitalization, overtaking No. 2 Volkswagen with a value of $101 billion. It wasn’t long ago that no industry analyst would have predicted that the 82-year-old Wolfsburg, Germany-based seller of 30 times as many vehicles last year would become an also-ran to Tesla. Most of them remain unconvinced that Tesla is worth its price of $558 a share and less than 32% recommend buying the stock, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.But Tesla customers and investors are making the case that the reliance on the internal combustion engine by Volkswagen — and by the 39 other major automakers committed to a commercial fossil fuel machine invented in the 19th century — is a dubious strategy. Tesla is worth $131 billion less than No. 1 Toyota Motor Corp., but its sales growth has been more than nine times the industry average during the past decade and 832 times Toyota's 25% appreciation since Tesla became a public company in June 2010 with an initial valuation of $2 billion.  It opened its largest service center in Germany last year and agreed in December to build its first European car factory, in the state of Brandenburg.All of which explains why Tesla has been poised to catch Volkswagen in the stock market since 2014. That’s when U.S. regulators confirmed that Volkswagen equipped more than 10 million vehicles worldwide with software to defeat emissions tests, an existential moment for the industry. The global sales leader in effect revealed that growth depended on making cleaner vehicles, and that it would cheat if necessary to stay ahead.Volkswagen subsequently admitted that it had conspired to violate the U.S. Clean Air Act and paid a $4.3 billion fine. Several senior executives were sentenced to prison and former Volkswagen Chief Executive Officer Martin Winterkorn and six other Volkswagen executives were eventually criminally charged by German prosecutors.Volkswagen still is beloved by industry analysts, 86% of whom favor the German automaker with a “buy” recommendation, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Volkswagen now wants to emulate Tesla and recently raised its battery electric production target to 1.5 million vehicles in 2025. Tesla sold a record 367,500 vehicles in 2019.“The time of the traditional car manufacturers is over,” said CEO Herbert Diess in prepared remarks at an internal Volkswagen meeting this month. “The magnitude of our task and the brevity of time” necessitated by Tesla's challenge “gives us exactly one single try,” he said. Diess, who was a member of the management board at Bayerische Motoren Werke AG before he joined Volkswagen as chairman and CEO in 2015, should know. As recently as 2013, Volkswagen's $109 billion valuation was seven times more than Tesla's. By 2015, the gap had narrowed to $22 billion and was just $10 billion after the first week of January. During this period, the average 5-year and 3-year returns (income plus appreciation) for the 10 largest automakers were 30% and 28%, respectively. Volkswagen investors suffered by comparison with a loss of 4% and a gain of 20%. Tesla shareholders crushed the industry, earning 181% and 120%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.Yet too few analysts agree with Diess's assessment. The Bloomberg Recommendation Consensus shows that the appraisal of Tesla by 36 analysts, measured on a scale of 1 to 5 (the most bullish), has fallen 37% from 4.1 in 2015 to 2.57 when the comparable measure for the Russell 3000 is 4.05. Bloomberg ranks the performance of analysts by calculating the total return of their buy and sell recommendations. The top 10 analysts have a target price for Tesla of $454 a share. The bottom 10 have a target of $397 a share.Ryan Brinkman, the automotive equity research analyst for JPMorgan Chase Bank, is among the biggest Tesla bears, with a target price of $240 a share and a sell rating for the next 12 months. He has issued 28 consecutive sell recommendations since February 2015; Tesla has appreciated 178% since then. During the preceding three years, he initiated 14 “neutral” or hold ratings in a row as the shares were climbing 487%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.Colin Rusch, a top-10 performer in the group and the Oppenheimer & Co. analyst who is most bullish on Tesla, said on Jan. 13 that the shares were worth $612, a 59% increase from his $385 target price published Jan. 3. He said the company was a buy on Aug. 2, 2018 and rated the shares a buy even when they lost almost 50% between August 2018 and June 2019. Tesla shareholders who followed Rusch's buy and sell suggestions throughout the past 12 months made 90%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.Investors who followed his advice on the 26 stocks he covers reaped a total return of 41% as against the 16% return that would have gone to followers of his top 10 peer group. More than half of Rusch's companies are committed to clean energy rather than being traditional auto stocks.As for Tesla, Rusch is the lonely analyst who agrees with Volkswagen's Diess. “While Tesla has stumbled through growing pains, we believe the company has reached critical scale sufficient to support sustainable positive free cash flow,” Rusch wrote earlier this month.That's another way of saying that the best for Tesla is yet to come.\--With assistance from Shin Pei.To contact the author of this story: Matthew A. Winkler at mwinkler@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Jonathan Landman at jlandman4@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.Matthew A. Winkler is Co-founder of Bloomberg News (1990) and Editor-in-Chief Emeritus; Bloomberg Opinion Columnist since 2015; Co-founder of Bloomberg Business Journalism Diversity Program in 2017. During his 25 years as Editor-in-Chief, Bloomberg News was a three-time finalist and winner of the Pulitzer Prize for Explanatory Reporting and received numerous George Polk, Gerald Loeb, Overseas Press Club and Society of Professional Journalists and Editors (Sabew) awards.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinionSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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