Dial Summit 24th Sept 2020
Dial Summit 24th Sept 2020
(Bloomberg) -- Malaysia’s yield curve reached the steepest in almost four years amid a surge in virus cases. Two local events next week -- a policy meeting and budget announcement -- may hasten the spread-widening trend.Another potential risk leading to further spread widening is from the U.S. presidential election, where an unexpected outcome could sap demand for the Asian nation’s longer-maturity debt.Malaysia’s longer-dated yields have been climbing since August on concern the need for additional government spending to counter the pandemic will require greater issuance of longer-dated debt. At the same time, shorter-term yields are being pushed lower by expectations the central bank will cut interest rates again to support economic growth.The spread between three- and 10-year yields widened to 88 basis points this week, the most since January 2017. The gap had been as narrow as 17 basis points in February before the global outbreak of the virus lead to a sell-off in risk assets.The latest spike up in the spread came after new virus cases jumped to a record of more than 1,000 a day, leading the government to tighten its partial lockdown -- known as a conditional movement control order -- on Oct. 26. This entailed extending the partial lockdown by an additional two weeks to Nov. 9 in Kuala Lumpur, Selangor and Putrajaya, following a similar decision in Sabah a few days before.These areas contribute close to 50% of the nation’s gross domestic product, and every two weeks of the conditional movement control order are projected to shave 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points from baseline annual economic growth, according to Citigroup Global Markets. Slower growth means additional need for stimulus and a greater prospect of lower interest rates.Key Local EventsThe central bank will announce its next policy decision on Tuesday. While economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict it will stay on hold, the latest virus tally may policy makers to signal the prospect for further easing.This will be followed three days later by the release of the government’s 2021 budget, which will include its latest target for next year’s budget deficit. The current projection for this year is 5.8% to 6% of gross domestic product, already the highest in more than a decade.“We expect the government’s fiscal deficit this year to hit 6% of GDP, and any overshooting will mainly stem from GDP coming in lower than expected,” said Wellian Wiranto, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore. “We are forecasting a fiscal deficit of 5.5% of GDP next year,” which would be a balance between a gesture toward fiscal consolidation, and the need to offer fiscal support to help the still-fragile economic recovery, he said.The budget may also reignite political tensions. Although the position of Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin has become more assured in recent days after the largest partner in his ruling coalition voiced support for him, he faces another key test when he presents the budget in parliament. Failing to pass the resolution may count as losing a no-confidence vote, which could unleash another outbreak of political uncertainty and push long-term yields even higher.A previous Southeast Asia rates column in July carried the headline: “Shorter is better is the mantra for Malaysia bonds.” If anything, the prospect of further curve steepening is even stronger now than it was then.What to WatchIndonesia will publish inflation data on Monday and is targeting to sell 20 trillion rupiah ($1.4 billion) of conventional bonds on Tuesday. Third-quarter GDP figures will be released ThursdayThe Philippines will report export numbers Wednesday and inflation data the following dayThailand will publish inflation figures Thursday after seven consecutive months of deflationNote: Marcus Wong is an EM macro strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and not intended as investment advice.(An earlier version of this story was corrected to say next week in first deck headline.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
Matt Ryan threw for 281 yards and ran for a touchdown, Younghoe Koo made four field goals and the Atlanta Falcons held on to beat the Carolina Panthers 25-17 on Thursday night to avoid a series season sweep. The Falcons (2-6) have had a penchant for squandering leads this season, coming into the game 1-3 when leading entering the fourth quarter. Carolina was driving late, but Atlanta stalled the rally when Blidi Wreh-Wilson intercepted Teddy Bridgewater near the Falcons' 10-yard line with 1:04 remaining.
On the roof of his house overlooking the sea in northeast Scotland, David Milne stands below a Mexican flag and stares down at a palatial golf clubhouse owned by Donald Trump.
The Milwaukee Brewers declined a mutual option on the contract of former National League Most Valuable Player Ryan Braun on Thursday, potentially putting an end to his career. Instead of paying Braun's scheduled $15 million salary in 2021, the Brewers bought out the deal for a $4 million. Braun, who turns 37 next month, has enjoyed a decorated tenure, winning NL Rookie of the Year in 2007, NL MVP in 2011 and earning six trips to the All-Star Game.
Japan's move to embrace a climate target of carbon neutrality by 2050 could open the way for the beleaguered nuclear industry to fire up again, nearly a decade after the Fukushima disaster shut down most of the country's reactors. Once the world's third-largest user of nuclear energy, utilities are now decommissioning nearly 40% of the pre-2011 fleet and the public remains highly suspicious of the industry. There are currently only two reactors operating, down from about 50 before the 2011 earthquake and tsunami that caused the meltdown in Fukushima.
The mother of a 17-year-old accused of killing two demonstrators in Kenosha, Wisconsin, is among those slated to testify Friday during a hearing in Illinois to decide if her son should be extradited across the border to stand trial on homicide charges. Kyle Rittenhouse’s lawyers also planned to call an expert on self-defense, a prison-safety consultant and two former homicide detectives in a long shot bid to convince Judge Paul Novak in Waukegan, Illinois, not to turn their client over to Wisconsin authorities. The case has become a rallying point for some conservatives who see Rittenhouse as a patriot who was exercising his right to bear arms during unrest in Kenosha following the shooting of a Black man by a white police officer.
Blame John Mulaney. The actor/comedian is hosting Saturday Night Live this week, making his first appearance since Feb. 21 on the late night show. What’s happened since then? “A global pandemic that ruined everything,” Mulaney admits, as he’s chided for cursing the world. Of course, there are apologies all around, starting at 0.17 of the […]
Faced with a veto from the United States, the World Trade Organization has two unpalatable options for selecting its next leader - override its biggest paymaster with a vote or hope for a change of U.S. president and wait until he takes charge. With just days to go before the U.S. election, President Donald Trump's administration struck another blow to the global trade watchdog on Wednesday by rejecting Nigeria's Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the woman proposed by a nomination "troika" to be the WTO's next director-general. Okonjo-Iweala, who would be the first African WTO leader, is also a U.S. citizen.
Japan’s coronavirus cases have topped 100,000, nine months after the first case was found in mid-January, the health ministry said Friday. The country confirmed 808 new cases on Thursday, bringing the cumulative COVID-19 cases to 100,334, including 712 people who were on a cruise ship that was docked off a Japanese port earlier this year. About one-third of the cases come from Tokyo, where 221 cases were confirmed Thursday, bringing a prefectural total to 30,677, with 453 deaths.
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Asian markets suffered further losses Friday as investors were spooked by soaring virus cases in Europe and the United States that have forced fresh lockdowns, while uncertainty ahead of next week's US election was also dampening sentiment.
“Better to put those voters on notice now while they still have at least some time to adjust," the panel wrote.
An investigation into Australia’s catastrophic wildfire season on Friday recommended greater efforts to forecast the impacts of climate change on specific parts of the country, warning fire behavior was becoming more extreme. The Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements began in February while wildfires were ravaging vast swathes of the nation’s southeast in a fire season that is now known as Black Summer. One firefighter was killed when an extraordinary weather event described by authorities as a “fire tornado” flipped a 10-ton fire truck upside down.
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(Bloomberg) -- Fresh concerns about the outlook for technology giants dragged U.S. equity futures lower, while Asian stocks also slipped on Friday. The dollar gave back some of its advance from the prior session.Japanese shares fell over 1%, with declines more modest in Hong Kong and Australia. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 sank following a string of reports from the likes of Amazon.com Inc. and Apple Inc., with the iPhone maker down more than 4% in after-hours trading.The S&P 500 had earlier bounced back a day after its biggest rout in four months, with investors encouraged by better-than-forecast economic data even as they kept a wary eye on growing coronavirus infections. This month’s sell-off in Treasuries eased but the benchmark yield remained above 0.80%. Elsewhere, oil rose from a multi-month low.Weakness in technology shares is adding to volatility that’s likely to remain elevated heading into next week’s U.S. election, with global equities on course for the worst weekly decline since March. Lockdown measures in some countries and the lack of agreement on a U.S. stimulus plan are also weighing on sentiment. New U.S. coronavirus cases topped 86,000, setting a daily record.“There is going to be more volatility ahead of the election,” Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial Inc., said on Bloomberg TV. “Over the weekend folks are going to be focused on Pennsylvania to see whether or not Biden is gaining there. The concern is if he gains a little bit, that may be one where you could actually look to a contested election.”Here are the main market moves:StocksS&P 500 Index futures fell 0.9% and Nasdaq 100 contracts were down 1.3% as of 12:22 p.m. in Tokyo. The S&P 500 rose 1.2% on Thursday.Japan’s Topix index fell 1.3%.Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.1%.Shanghai Composite was little changed.South Korea’s Kospi lost 1%.Euro Stoxx 50 futures were 0.2% lower.CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.1% after increasing 0.4% Thursday.The yen was at 104.45 per dollar, up about 0.1%.The offshore yuan rose 0.3% to 6.6860 per dollar.The euro bought $1.1691, up 0.2%.BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries steady at about 0.81%.Australia’s 10-year yield was at 0.82%.CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.7% to $36.42 a barrel.Gold was at $1,877.37 an ounce, up 0.5%.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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