Yahoo Finance Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ:GEVO) Just Reported And Analysts Have Been Cutting Their Estimates
Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ:GEVO) just released its latest first-quarter report and things are not looking great. Earnings fell badly short of analyst estimates, with US$4.0m revenue falling -13% short, and statutory losses of US$0.08 per share being -10% greater than forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
See our latest analysis for Gevo
After the latest results, the four analysts covering Gevo are now predicting revenues of US$18.6m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a decent 8.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$0.36 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$19.8m and losses of US$0.29 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Gevo after this update; revenues were downgraded and per-share losses expected to increase.
The consensus price target fell 76% to US$1.05, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Gevo at US$1.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$0.80. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Gevo's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 12% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 31% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 2.0% annually. So it looks like Gevo is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Gevo. They also downgraded Gevo's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Gevo's future valuation.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Gevo analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Gevo has 3 warning signs (and 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) we think you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
