Yahoo Finance PostNL N.V. Just Missed Earnings With A Surprise Loss - Here Are Analysts Latest Forecasts
PostNL N.V. (AMS:PNL) last week reported its latest first-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of €765m missing analyst predictions by 6.8%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of €0.04 per share, a substantial decline on analyst expectations of a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
View our latest analysis for PostNL
Following last week's earnings report, PostNL's four analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be €3.21b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 88% to €0.12. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €3.34b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.14 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the €1.33 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values PostNL at €1.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €1.10. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of PostNL'shistorical trends, as the 2.6% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 2.4% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 2.9% per year. It's clear that while PostNL's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for PostNL. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. The consensus price target held steady at €1.33, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for PostNL going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with PostNL .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
