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What's in Offing for Harley-Davidson (HOG) in Q1 Earnings?

Zacks Equity Research
Updated

Harley-Davidson, Inc. HOG is set to report first-quarter 2018 results on Apr 24, before the opening bell. Last quarter, it delivered a positive surprise of 17.4%. Of the trailing four quarters, the company surpassed estimates in three while meeting in one. The average positive surprise came in 7.9%.

In the last three months, shares of Harley-Davidson have underperformed the industry it belongs to. The stock has lost 23.9% compared with the industry’s 11.3% decline.

Let’s see, how things have shaped up for the upcoming announcement.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Harley-Davidson, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise | Harley-Davidson, Inc. Quote

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Factors Influencing This Quarter

In first-quarter 2018, Harley-Davidson expects to ship 60,000-65,000 units of motorcycles compared with 70,831, shipped in the year-ago period. This decline in anticipation is primarily due to high competition, global economic uncertainty and softness in the market.

Also, the company’s stock has seen the Zacks Consensus Estimate for annual earnings being revised 0.3% downward over the last seven days.

In March, Harley-Davidson reported its investment and teaming up with Alta Motors for developing electric-motorcycle technology along with a focus on product developments. This progress of Harley-Davidson’s investment in EV technology is in line with its 10-year strategy to build next-generation riders. Also, the company aims to introduce its first electric motorcycle in 2019.

For first-quarter 2018, the company earlier announced a cash dividend of 37 cents per share paid on Mar 2, reflecting a hike of 1.4% from 36.5 cents a year ago. Additionally, its board authorized to repurchase up to 15 million common shares, which adds to its existing share-repurchase authorization, approved in February 2016.

For the soon-to-be-released quarterly results, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for total revenues of Motorcycles and Related Products segment is pegged at $1.24 billion, up from the fourth quarter’s total revenues of $1.04 billion.

Similarly, consensus estimates for total revenues of the company’s Financial Services segment stand at $175 million, down from the fourth quarter’s total revenues of $182 million.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Harley-Davidson is likely to beat earnings this quarter. This is because, a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. But that is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Harley-Davidson has an Earnings ESP of -8.35% as the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at $1 and $1.09, respectively. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Harley-Davidson carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). Further, this, combined with its Earnings ESP, makes the surprise prediction difficult. Note that we caution against Rank #4  and 5 (Strong Sell) stocks going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is witnessing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks worth considering from the same space, with the right combination of elements to outpace earnings estimates this time around:

BorgWarner Inc. BWA has an Earnings ESP of +1.33% and a Zacks Rank #2. Its first-quarter 2018 results are expected to be released on Apr 26. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Autoliv, Inc. ALV has an Earnings ESP of +1.74% and has a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is expected to report first-quarter 2018 results on Apr 27.

Cummins Inc. CMI has an Earnings ESP of +0.49% and is a #2 Ranked player. Its first-quarter 2018 results are slated to be announced on May 1.

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Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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