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Atalaya Mining Plc Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for Atalaya Mining Plc (LON:ATYM) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 3.4% to UK£3.64. Atalaya Mining reported €340m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of €0.26 beat expectations, being 7.0% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Atalaya Mining

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earnings-and-revenue-growth

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Atalaya Mining from five analysts is for revenues of €365.8m in 2024. If met, it would imply an okay 7.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 42% to €0.39. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €376.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.36 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that while sentiment around revenues has declined following the latest results, the analysts are now more bullish on the company's earnings power.

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The consensus has made no major changes to the price target of UK£4.42, suggesting the forecast improvement in earnings is expected to offset the decline in revenues next year. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Atalaya Mining analyst has a price target of UK£5.30 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£3.40. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Atalaya Mining shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Atalaya Mining's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 16% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 1.1% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Atalaya Mining is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Atalaya Mining's earnings potential next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at UK£4.42, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Atalaya Mining going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Atalaya Mining Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.