^GSPC - S&P 500
| Previous close | 2,997.95 |
| Open | 2,996.84 |
| Volume | 1,986,308,651 |
| Day's range | 2,976.31 - 3,000.00 |
| 52-week range | 2,346.58 - 3,027.98 |
| Avg. volume | 3,542,300,769 |
- Yahoo Finance UK
UK economy delivered fresh blow as MPs ask for Brexit delay
MPs voted 322 to 306 to back a motion designed to rule out a no-deal exit.
- Yahoo Finance
CME dismisses Vanity Fair story on Trump chaos trades as 'patently false'
A viral Vanity Fair article that suggested traders may have had foreknowledge about a series of geopolitical events — and profited handsomely from them — is “patently false,” according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
- Bloomberg
Analysts Have a Few Problems With Trump ‘Chaos Trades’ Article
(Bloomberg) -- While the idea Donald Trump’s White House might have leaked market-moving news isn’t crazy, a new magazine story suggesting traders made billions of dollars front-running geopolitical events failed to pass the smell test among Wall Street professionals.Analysts and investors who spoke to Bloomberg News were mostly skeptical of a Vanity Fair article titled “The Fantastically Profitable Mystery of the Trump Chaos Trades” that raises the possibility traders did more than get lucky buying S&P 500 futures right before big market swings. While nothing is impossible, experts who examined the story said any implication that people traded on inside information fell short of being proven.“I don’t see where the dots are connected,” said Michael O’Rourke, JonesTrading’s chief market strategist. “Unless you have the trading records, which you don’t, you can’t tie one and one together to make two the way this story is laid out.”The story’s author, William D. Cohan, said “of course I’m standing by my reports,” which reflected the accounts of sources in Chicago trading pits. The one-time Bloomberg Opinion columnist said he was alerted to trading patterns that caught the attention of professionals with decades of experience, and that alternate explanations could exist.“I don’t make any allegations, I don’t know what really happened. I was just being reportorial about what traders in the pit were seeing,” he said. “Do I trust my sources? Absolutely. Are they vastly experienced? Absolutely. Does everybody see things differently? Probably. What I’m saying is ‘Hey, there are regulators whose job it is to see these things and investigate them.’”The article describes five big trades in S&P 500 e-mini futures from June 28 to Sept. 13, ranging from 55,000 to 420,000 contracts. It said each position was taken shortly before market-moving news -- three times involving the U.S.-China trade war, once the bombing of Saudi oil fields and once Hong Kong politics. Thanks to market reactions, the magazine said, people involved in the transactions could’ve booked gains of $82.5 million on the smallest to $1.8 billion on the biggest.But attributing sinister intent to a handful of trades that quickly became money-makers ignores how common such large trades are in the futures market, said industry pros. Given how often people move tens of thousands of futures contracts at once -- and how often people like President Donald Trump send stocks reeling -- someone looking for suspicious timing is guaranteed to find it.“Typically these stories focus on the times you’re right. No one writes about people buying a couple hundred million of e-minis and the market doesn’t do anything,” said Max Gokhman, the head of asset allocation for Pacific Life Fund Advisors. “Volume spikes happen all the time.”Anita Liskey, a spokeswoman for CME Group Inc., the exchange where S&P 500 futures trade, declined to comment. The Vanity Fair article cited a spokeswoman for the CME saying the trades in question didn’t originate from a single source and they were of no concern.One trading expert, the chief executive officer of a major quantitative shop who asked not to be identified, said an analysis by his firm suggests no giant trades like the ones the article described appear to have happened. The story says that in the last 10 minutes of trading on Aug. 23, someone bought 386,000 of the September S&P 500 contracts. That number is close to the total volume for September e-minis from 3:50 p.m. to 4 p.m. New York time, spread over thousands of trades -- unlikely to be the work of a single person.Moreover, CME rules prohibit anyone from owning more than 60,000 e-minis at a time. And such a trade would’ve been gargantuan: worth nearly $60 billion. That’s big enough to send the stock market sharply higher and probably trigger trading halts, according to the CEO. That didn’t happen.The Vanity Fair story described Chicago pit traders concerned that people got inside information on “Trump or Beijing’s latest thinking” before taking the positions. Others saw coincidence. In a world where the president sends markets up and down multiple times a day, they said, it’s possible to depict virtually all trading as a reaction to something he does.“Every time stocks move after some crazy Donald Trump news -- which, again, is every time stocks move -- half the people who traded futures ahead of the move will look smart (and the other half will look dumb), and you can, if you want, build a conspiracy theory out of that,” Bloomberg Opinion columnist Matt Levine wrote Thursday.Prompted by the Vanity Fair article, Democratic Representatives Ted Lieu and Kathleen Rice called for a federal investigation into the timing around sales of e-mini futures contracts before significant geopolitical events or statements from Trump.“Millions of futures contracts trade a day, billions of dollars trade a day, so to make a connection, I feel like it’s very hard to do,” said JonesTrading’s O’Rourke. “To me the article just speaks more about the national sentiment about the office of the president.”(Adds U.S. House members calling for an investigation. An earlier version of this story was corrected to remove erroneous volume data.)To contact the reporters on this story: Sarah Ponczek in New York at sponczek2@bloomberg.net;Nick Baker in Chicago at nbaker7@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Chris Nagi at chrisnagi@bloomberg.net;Jeremy Herron at jherron8@bloomberg.netFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
- Investing.com
Stocks - S&P Knocked Down by Boeing, JNJ, China
Investing.com – Stocks finished the week on a down note on slumps in Boeing and Johnson & Johnson, plus new worries about Chinese economic growth.
- Reuters - UK Focus
GLOBAL MARKETS-Dollar weakens on Brexit, shares sapped by weaker China growth
The dollar posted its worst week in almost four months on Friday, pummelled by sterling and euro rallies driven by a deal on Britain's departure from the European Union, while China's weakest growth in nearly three decades weighed on equities. The dollar crept lower against the euro as the common currency enjoyed a lift from hopes a Brexit deal could improve the odds of the euro zone avoiding a recession. Dismal manufacturing data and worries the U.S.-China trade war could slow euro zone economies even further have rattled the euro this year, while fears of a disorderly Brexit had slammed sterling until a week ago.
- Reuters - UK Focus
US STOCKS-Boeing, J&J, dismal China data drag Wall Street lower
- Bloomberg
Stocks Fall as Boeing Leads Drop; Dollar Weakens: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. equities ended the week on a down note after flirting with all-time highs in the wake of mostly positive earnings reports. The dollar weakened to its lowest level since July.Boeing accounted for about two-thirds of the decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, while sagging technology stocks such as Microsoft weighed on the Nasdaq Composite. U.S. regulators said Boeing failed to turn over communications between its employees during the certification of the grounded 737 Max jet.“Markets are more forward looking, meaning that what happened in earnings season in the previous quarter has a temporary impact in the markets, but what is more important to know is the big trends,” said Juha Seppala, director of macro asset-allocation strategy for UBS Asset Management.Treasuries rose, while most sovereign bonds fell across Europe. Oil futures fluctuated. The lira gained after Turkey and the U.S. agreed Thursday to a temporary cease-fire plan for Syria. While sterling was range bound it was still poised for a third week of gains before U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson seeks parliamentary backing on Saturday for his Brexit deal.American earnings so far have been relatively upbeat, after Morgan Stanley on Thursday became the latest big bank to buck concerns about weak growth. Traders will also be mulling the data from China, which showed GDP slow to 6% in the third quarter, with limited pick-up from domestic demand, but factory output improve and retail sales hold up.Earlier in Asia, shares closed down in Shanghai after Chinese GDP rose by the least since the early 1990s last quarter. Benchmarks in Japan and South Korea gave up gains to finish lower.Here are the main movers in markets:To contact the reporters on this story: Claire Ballentine in New York at cballentine@bloomberg.net;Sarah Ponczek in New York at sponczek2@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at jherron8@bloomberg.net, Dave LiedtkaFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
- FX Empire
US Stock Market Overview – Stocks Slide but Rise for the Week as Volatility Drops
Brexit could generate volatility
- Reuters - UK Focus
US STOCKS-Wall Street weighed by Boeing, J&J, bleak China data
- FX Empire
S&P 500 Weekly Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue To Grind Higher
Stock markets around the United States have continue to grind higher, and the S&P; 500 of course was no different. The E-mini contract has reached towards the 3000 level yet again, which is starting to show obvious signs of resistance.
- FX Empire
S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Pulled Back Ahead Of The Weekend
The S&P; 500 has pulled back slightly ahead of the weekend, which isn’t much of a surprise considering just how close we are to the all-time highs and we are of course in the midst of earnings season. Beyond that, there is a Brexit vote coming.
- Bloomberg
As Investors Bail From Drug Stocks, Companies Step Up as Buyers
(Bloomberg) -- Are you one of the of the many investors exiting drug and hospital stocks lately? Be advised: you may be selling your stock to the company that issued it.That’s because health-care shares, whose returns trail every S&P 500 sector but energy this year, are being snapped up in repurchases.For a second week, Bank of America’s corporate clients spent near-record cash on buybacks. The spree is happening as investors have pulled more than $3 billion since June from exchange-traded funds focusing on health-care. The outflows are the biggest among sector ETFs tracked by Bloomberg.The split reflects a tug-of-war between fundamentals and politics. Shares from Pfizer to UnitedHealth Group have fallen as politicians advanced drug-pricing regulations and promoted “Medicare-for-All” insurance plans.Corporate repurchases are surging amid the lowest valuations in more than two years. Trading at less than 16 times forecast earnings, health-care shares are priced at a 14% discount to the market, data compiled by Bloomberg showed.“This is smart, given some depressed levels,” Jared Holz, a health-care strategist at Jefferies, said of the buybacks. “It feels like a lot of negatives are well or at least better understood and appreciated.”The surge in buybacks may be a vote of confidence from management on their own businesses. After all, the industry is one of the few in the S&P 500 whose growth has stayed positive amid trade and geopolitical turmoil, and is expected to remain so through at least next year, analyst estimates showed.Health-care profits are estimated to increase 3.3% in the third quarter, compared with an expected decline of 3.6% for all companies in the S&P 500. Eli Lilly & Co., Anthem Inc. and Biogen Inc. are scheduled to report results next week.To Francois Trahan, UBS Group AG’s head of U.S. equity strategy, the discount valuation suggests that part of the policy risk is already reflected in the stock prices. Investors spooked by those issues shouldn’t forget that the industry’s forecast earnings growth hasn’t been negative for more than 25 years, a track record that’s sure to boost its haven status as the economy heads for a slowdown, he said.“Investors have been treating health care like a cyclical sector in the face of a slowing economy,” Trahan wrote in a note on Oct. 16. “We expect health care’s defensive characteristics to outweigh policy risk in the coming quarters.”To contact the reporters on this story: Lu Wang in New York at lwang8@bloomberg.net;Tatiana Darie in New York at tdarie1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Brad Olesen at bolesen3@bloomberg.net, Chris Nagi, Richard RichtmyerFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
- FX Empire
USD/JPY Weekly Price Forecast – US Dollar Facing Significant Resistance
The US dollar has gone back and forth during the week, in relatively quiet trading. The 50 week EMA has offered some resistance, and it now looks likely that we need another catalyst to go higher.
- FX Empire
USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Quiet Ahead Of The Week
The US dollar is relatively quiet against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Friday again as the S&P; 500 reaches highs that are difficult to break. Remember, these two markets do tend to move in the same direction, so this all lines up quite nicely.
- Reuters
Graphic: Take Five - Super Saturday, Super Mario
Britain may be about to draw a line under almost 3-1/2 years of political chaos, economic uncertainty and tortuous discussions with the European Union over the terms of its exit from the bloc. Depending on the election outcome, Britain will either leave with Johnson's deal or hold a second referendum that may cancel Brexit altogether. Thursday could be an emotional day for Mario Draghi, the ECB chief credited with saving the euro and euro zone with his pledge in 2012 to do "whatever it takes".
- Yahoo Finance
IMF: Trade resolution can only do so much to address 'synchronized slowdown'
The International Monetary Fund said a "synchronized slowdown" is partly to blame on trade concerns but said there are more deeply rooted economic issues weighing on growth as well.
- Reuters
Wall Street pressured by J&J, global growth concerns
The world's second-largest economy expanded at its weakest pace in almost 30 years in the third quarter amid a bitter trade war with the United States, which has roiled financial markets and fueled fears of a global recession. "China data just adds to the continued slowing global growth concept that has been out there for a while," said Chris O'Keefe, managing director at Logan Capital Management in Ardmore, Pennsylvania. A 4.2% fall in shares of Johnson & Johnson also pressured the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 indexes.
- Reuters
Wall Street Week Ahead: Tech haves and have-nots face third-quarter tests
Technology companies, which make up the largest swath of the U.S. stock market, are expected to post a nearly 8% drop in third-quarter profits as reports roll in next week from many of the sector's biggest corporations. The overall sector's earnings performance is being dragged down by semiconductors, which are expected to post a nearly 27% plunge in quarterly profits, according to IBES data from Refinitiv, as analysts point to impact from the U.S.-China tariff conflict and generally weak demand. Growing business IT spending continues to support other pockets of tech, according to investors.
- Reuters
Wall Street Weekahead: Tech haves and have-nots face third-quarter tests
Technology companies, which make up the largest swath of the U.S. stock market, are expected to post a nearly 8% drop in third-quarter profits as reports roll in next week from many of the sector's biggest corporations. The overall sector's earnings performance is being dragged down by semiconductors, which are expected to post a nearly 27% plunge in quarterly profits, according to IBES data from Refinitiv, as analysts point to impact from the U.S.-China tariff conflict and generally weak demand. Growing business IT spending continues to support other pockets of tech, according to investors.
- Bloomberg
After Hemorrhaging $100 Billion, Europe Stages a Comeback
(Bloomberg) -- Growth remains slow, the Brexit saga is far from over and yet, European assets are gaining favor with investors.The reason? There are several, including optimism that a no-deal Brexit is off the table and that the U.S. and China are making progress in trade talks. But in Europe’s case, it’s also a contrarian call on buying a market that has been largely avoided by investors this year.“We saw that the positioning was particularly poor and Europe was one of the more unloved and under-owned areas of the world,” said Nathan Thooft, head of global asset allocation at Manulife Investment Management, which has been buying European stocks in October. “As soon as people start to see positive signs, they come running back and the opportunity for the upside is still there."Just this year alone, European equity funds have lost about $100 billion to outflows, even as the returns have been comparable to those of the S&P 500 index. Fund managers see Europe as the region with the least favorable profit outlook among major markets, according to the latest Bank of America Corp. fund manager survey. And they have a point since Germany on Thursday slashed its 2020 growth forecast and is flirting with recession.But the October moves in key European markets are signaling that bears may be giving up some of their positions. The euro, which last month hit a two-year low, is the best-performing major developed-market currency after the pound this month, while the Euro Stoxx 50’s 2.8% gain in U.S. dollar terms is three times that of the S&P 500. And Europe’s primary bond market jumped back to life on Thursday and may set a new annual record by the end of next month.Strategists from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America turned bullish on European stocks earlier this month, saying that economic data are hitting lows and can only get better from here, whereas low investor positioning creates ample room for entry. The latest figures from EPFR Global and Bank of America on Friday showed that European-focused equity funds continued to see outflows, losing $1.2 billion in the week through Oct. 16.“Given the strong consensus underweight and fading political uncertainty, some international investors view Europe more positively now,” said Ulrich Urbahn, head of multi-asset strategy and research at Joh Berenberg Gossler & Co. “There is a bigger chance now that Europe can attract more inflows in the coming months."And now that Boris Johnson managed to bridge a deal with the European Union, all eyes are on his ability to get it through Britain’s Parliament. Success would be a major positive catalyst for European and U.K. assets. European stocks are unlikely to jump 5% overnight if a deal is passed, but it’ll fuel further upgrades in investor positioning, according to Manulife’s Thooft.Reports that the EU and U.K. were closing in on a draft deal sent the Stoxx Europe 600 to the highest level in 17 months on Tuesday. The likes of JPMorgan said that euro-area stocks would be a key beneficiary of increased political clarity.Speculation that the U.K. is nearing a Brexit deal pushed Sanford C. Bernstein strategists led by Inigo Fraser-Jenkins to raise European equities -- but not the U.K. -- to overweight. Analysts blame passive funds for their different views on Europe and the U.K., saying that index-tracking funds for Europe excluding the U.K. have seen strong selling over the past 18 months, whereas U.K. passive funds have seen no material exit.“Europe has been left behind and it is proving to be a wrong choice already,” said Alberto Tocchio, chief investment officer at Colombo Wealth SA, who has bought call options on European stocks on expectations of a Brexit deal. “A potential resolution of the Brexit issue could be the spark that would lead to some major inflows into Europe over the next months."(Updates with EPFR Global’s latest flow data in the sixth paragraph.)\--With assistance from Priscila Azevedo Rocha and Hannah Benjamin.To contact the reporter on this story: Ksenia Galouchko in London at kgalouchko1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Blaise Robinson at brobinson58@bloomberg.net, Jon MenonFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
- Reuters - UK Focus
US STOCKS-Futures flat as China data gloom overshadows upbeat earnings
U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Friday, as better-than-expected earnings reports were overshadowed by fresh jitters about the global economy after economic data from China revealed growth slowed to its weakest pace in almost 30 years. Oilfield services provider Schlumberger NV also gained 1.8% following a quarterly profit beat. The reporting season kicked off on a strong note this week, with solid results from major banks, healthcare giants and streaming pioneer Netflix Inc. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average indexes were on pace to cap their second week in gains.
- Yahoo Finance
What scares investors most about negative interest rates: Morning Brief
Top news and what to watch in the markets on Friday, October 18, 2019.
