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Bitcoin heading for a $10k fall – poll suggests

a man chashing a bitcoin which is rolling down a hill
The poll was designed to assess the confidence retail investors currently have in bitcoin. (Malte Mueller via Getty Images)

Bitcoin is more likely to hit $10,000 than $30,000, a new survey of retail investors has revealed.

According to Bloomberg’s MLIV Pulse survey, 60% of the 950 retail investors who took part in the poll think bitcoin will drop to $10,000.

Forty percent have confidence the world's preeminent cryptocurrency will rebound and reach $30,000.

The respondents to the survey that ran from July 5 to 8 were asked, "which level will bitcoin trade at first? $10k or $30k."

Almost 28% of the contributors to the poll expressed strong confidence that cryptocurrencies are the future of finance, whereas 20% said they're worthless.

This litmus test of retail investor sentiment is significant for the digital asset that relies upon a limited supply and the trust and confidence of investors for its value.

Bitcoin's price hasn't touched the $10,000 mark since September 2020, compared to an all-time high of over $68,000 in November last year.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) fell today below the $20,000 psychological level to $19,758, down 3.7% in the last 24 hours.

Ethereum (ETH-USD), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap fell almost 7% in 24 hours to stand at $1,070.

Although the price of bitcoin fell almost 4% on Tuesday to dip below $20,000, this tumble below the crucial psychological price threshold of $20k has not manifested in the same level of panic as in early June, when bitcoin seemed to be in freefall.

Read more: Crypto live prices

Cryptocurrency adoption is increasing among financial institutions, with the fifth-largest Swiss Bank set to enable bitcoin trading for over 2 million of its customers.

Leading Swiss retail bank, PostFinance, will allow its 2.69 million customers to buy, sell and hold bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies beginning in 2024, according to a report from SwissInfo.

The banking arm of Switzerland’s post office is joining other traditional institutions that have embraced bitcoin such as Julius Baer, LGT Bank, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Fidelity.

Mati Greenspan, founder of the crypto and foreign-exchange analysis firm Quantum Economics spoke to Coindesk about the recent price movement and said: "I've heard forecasts as low as $8,000 per bitcoin, but we may have seen the bottom already. The outlook only gets better when we realise that the absolute worst-case scenario is probably not extremely likely."

Speaking to Coindesk TV, CEO of the crypto trading platform CrossTower Kapil Rathi said: "The cleansing is happening, when we come on the other side, it should be healthy, and a stronger crypto market."

However, speaking on Tuesday at the British High Commission in Singapore Sir Jon Cunliffe gave a cautionary message for investors wishing to wade into the cryptocurrency waters now that prices look to be reaching a floor.

Read more: How the EU plans to regulate the crypto market

The deputy governor of the Bank of England for financial stability said: "Financial assets with no intrinsic value, that is to say with no real economy assets backing them and no means of generating revenue, are only worth what the next buyer will pay. They are therefore inherently volatile, very vulnerable to sentiment and prone to collapse. The proponents of crypto assets like Bitcoin have argued that their technological design enables them to function as a hedge against economic volatility and inflation – a sort of ‘digital gold’. The reality, however, is that they behave as a very speculative, risky asset."

Cunliffe went on to warn of the high leveraged positions that have greatly amplified the losses in the current crash and instigated a "fire sale of digital assets".

Speaking of the inherent risk that comes with leverage, he said: "We have seen a range of crypto funds taken down by these effects; one of the biggest has been here in Singapore with Three Arrows Capital filing for bankruptcy last week."

The collapse of crypto-asset valuations has spread rapidly through the cryptocurrency sector with crypto-lending platforms freezing withdrawals and others going bankrupt.

Firms that had exposure to collapsed crypto-hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC) have taken the brunt of the damage.

The 100,000 plus creditors of the failed crypto-brokerage Voyager Digital (VYGVF) are now expected to only receive a fraction of what they are owed, as the firm had exposure with 3AC of approximately $650 million.

Creditors have asked a US bankruptcy court in Manhattan to force the cryptocurrency hedge fund's founders to participate in the liquidation proceedings, but no one can find the Three Arrows Capital founders, the Credit Suisse traders Zhu Su and Kyle Davies.

Watch: The Crypto Mile – Jordan Belfort talks about bitcoin and crypto crash