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California Low Carbon Fuels Standard Outlook 2023: Analysis on Demand, Supply and Pricing of Credits

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Dublin, April 27, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "California Low Carbon Fuels Standard Outlook on Demand, Supply and Pricing of Credits" report has been added to's offering.

California Low Carbon Fuels Standard Outlook on Demand, Supply and Pricing of Credits Targeting the carbon intensity of fuels to reduce emissions from the transportation sector has led to the consideration of low-carbon fuels. The California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) is a mechanism that uses the life cycle carbon intensity of various fuel routes as a metric to cut emissions by 10%. Currently, the credit bank is at 11.70 MT. Tier 1 pathways are squeezing the other pathways, with a major credit increase from renewable diesel.

In this insight report, along with market trend analysis, we present the results of the three scenarios, which are based on the CFS Carbon Outlook model. The model is a fuel demand-supply model that also calculates price based on the marginal abatement costs of the different fuels.


Demand and supply of credits are linked to a number of variables impacting the transportation sector: projected stock of different types of vehicles in California, kinds of fuels used, Vehicles Miles Traveled (VMT) for different kinds of vehicles, seasonal behavioral changes on driving patterns, etc. Variations also take into account technological pathways and new emerging credit generation opportunities such as hydrogen (fuel cell electric vehicle), carbon capture & storage, refinery improvement.

Key Topics Covered:

Executive Summary

  • North American clean fuels markets are doubling overnight in 2023 and demand dynamics will change over the next few years.

  • The biggest driver in 2023 is going to be the carbon intensity target for 2030.

  • 205 credit generation pathways have come up.

  • ZEV adoption in California is on path to meet the Advanced Clean Cars II Targets.

  • Beyond CI changes things to watch out for in 2023 include:

1 LCFS Market Overview
1.1 Emerging Carbon Intensity (CI) based clean fuel market landscape in North America
1.2 Regional clean fuels markets
1.3 Background and history of California Low Carbon Fuels Standard

2 California LCFS performance to date
2.1 Transportation role in California's emission profile
2.2 Carbon Intensity Distribution
2.3 Low Carbon Fuel Supply Assessment
2.4 Electric Vehicle Fleet Development
2.5 Credit generation and trading

3 California LCFS current market dynamics
3.1 LCFS CA Cumulative Bank is still increasing
3.2 Renewable diesel is the highest credit generator with electricity set to catch up
3.3 Electricity is in competition with Tier 1 pathways for credit generation
3.4 Renewable diesel, Electricity, Bio-CNG, & Ethanol are driving the credit bank
3.5 Corn and UCO are the major feedstock producing credits for all seasons
3.6 Across EV fleet LDV/MDV on road residential charging is leading the growth rate
3.7 CARBOB continues to be the largest deficit generator
3.8 Around 80% of deficits are from CARBOB
3.9 In the last one-month benchmark Price has increased to $75.5 with Spot prices at 75.15
3.10 Volume continues to stay elevated with credit prices dropping close to $62

4 Interplay between different Clean Fuels markets
4.1 Modeling the interplay impact on market forecast
4.2 Incentives from LCFS for different fuel types
4.3 Stack of other incentives from different markets on the West
Coast for renewable diesel

5 Development on CA LCFS Pathways
5.1 Lookup Table
5.2 Tier 1 Pathways
5.3 Tier 2 Pathways
5.4 Analysis of Pathways in CA LCFS

6 Status of production, consumption, capacity, and demand for biofuels up to 2030
6.1 Ethanol
6.2 Biodiesel
6.3 Renewable Diesel

7 Demand and supply outlook for CA LCFS credits: possibilities till 2030
7.1 Key market variables at play in CA LCFS influencing supply and demand
7.2 CFS.CarbonOutlookTMModel
7.3 Scenarios
7.4 Feb 2023 Model Output
7.5 Discussion on model output

8 Annexures
8.1 Location wise Lookup Pathways for different fuel type, feedstock & range of current CI
8.2 Location wise Tier 1 Pathways for different fuel type, feedstock, & range of current CI
8.3 Location wise Tier 3 Pathways for different fuel type, feedstock, & current CI
8.4 Company wise total number of pathways certified

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