China to meet its 2030 renewable energy target by end of this year: state-owned researcher

China's solar and wind energy sector will continue to grow at breakneck speed this year, providing the momentum the country needs to meet its 2030 renewable targets six years ahead of schedule, according to a state-owned researcher's forecasts.

The country will add 70 gigawatts (GW) of installed wind power capacity and 190GW of solar capacity by the end of 2024, said a new report by the China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute (CREEI), a research body under the the National Energy Administration (NEA).

According to statistics released by the NEA for 2023, China added 217GW of solar power and 76GW of wind power capacity, bringing total capacity to 1,050GW by the end of last year.

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The estimated new additions would bring China's installed solar and wind energy capacity to 1,310GW by the end of this year, surpassing its 2030 renewable energy target of 1,200GW six years ahead of schedule.

"Improving energy self-sufficiency requires the further development and utilisation of renewable energy," the CREEI report said.

China, the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter and renewable energy developer, accounted for almost 60 per cent of the world's total renewable energy capacity additions last year, by adding a record 301GW of solar, wind, and hydro power generation capacity.

However, the lightning-fast expansion of the country's multibillion-dollar renewable energy sector - particularly the solar cell industry - has sparked concerns about overcapacity because of a mismatch between the rapidly increasing supply and much slower demand, with a leading industry executive calling for Beijing to intervene last month.

China's wind power sector will continue to grow "relatively fast", while solar power capacity will expand at "top speed", according to CREEI.

As of the end of May, China already had around 690GW of installed solar power capacity and 460GW of wind power capacity, accounting for some 38 per cent of the country's installed power generation capacity, according to data released by the NEA.

In order to meet the target of having 80 per cent of its energy mix coming from non-fossil fuels by 2060 - the same year it aims to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions - China must improve the stability and reliability of its renewable power supply, and upgrade its power grids to boost the consumption of renewable energy, according to CREEI.

This would bring huge opportunities for the energy storage and power grid equipment sectors, according to analysts.

China's energy storage capacity based on new technologies such as lithium-ion batteries tripled year on year in the first quarter of 2024, with tech giants like Tesla and Contemporary Amperex Technology all looking at the sector for growth opportunities.

The power grid equipment sector is also set to boom as state-owned utility firms boost their spending to meet the country's rising electricity demand and Beijing's call to better incorporate renewable energy generation capacity into the power system, according to reports from Citi and Daiwa Capital last month.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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