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Did You Manage To Avoid ITC Properties Group's (HKG:199) Painful 70% Share Price Drop?

Generally speaking long term investing is the way to go. But that doesn't mean long term investors can avoid big losses. To wit, the ITC Properties Group Limited (HKG:199) share price managed to fall 70% over five long years. We certainly feel for shareholders who bought near the top. And it's not just long term holders hurting, because the stock is down 47% in the last year. Even worse, it's down 15% in about a month, which isn't fun at all.

Check out our latest analysis for ITC Properties Group

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

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During the five years over which the share price declined, ITC Properties Group's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 25% each year. Notably, the share price has fallen at 21% per year, fairly close to the change in the EPS. This suggests that market participants have not changed their view of the company all that much. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

SEHK:199 Past and Future Earnings, November 13th 2019
SEHK:199 Past and Future Earnings, November 13th 2019

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on ITC Properties Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, ITC Properties Group's TSR for the last 5 years was -52%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

ITC Properties Group shareholders are down 41% for the year (even including dividends) , but the market itself is up 4.7%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 14% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares - and the price they paid.

ITC Properties Group is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.