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Does Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) Recent Track Record Look Strong?

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Analyzing Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) track record of past performance is a valuable exercise for investors. It enables us to reflect on whether or not the company has met expectations, which is a powerful signal for future performance. Today I will assess GRG's recent performance announced on 29 December 2018 and compare these figures to its long-term trend and industry movements.

See our latest analysis for Greggs

Were GRG's earnings stronger than its past performances and the industry?

GRG's trailing twelve-month earnings (from 29 December 2018) of UK£66m has jumped 16% compared to the previous year.

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Furthermore, this one-year growth rate has exceeded its 5-year annual growth average of 15%, indicating the rate at which GRG is growing has accelerated. What's enabled this growth? Let's take a look at whether it is merely because of industry tailwinds, or if Greggs has seen some company-specific growth.

LSE:GRG Income Statement, June 28th 2019
LSE:GRG Income Statement, June 28th 2019

In terms of returns from investment, Greggs has fallen short of achieving a 20% return on equity (ROE), recording 20% instead. However, its return on assets (ROA) of 13% exceeds the GB Hospitality industry of 5.9%, indicating Greggs has used its assets more efficiently. Though, its return on capital (ROC), which also accounts for Greggs’s debt level, has declined over the past 3 years from 26% to 26%.

What does this mean?

Though Greggs's past data is helpful, it is only one aspect of my investment thesis. Positive growth and profitability are what investors like to see in a company’s track record, but how do we properly assess sustainability? I recommend you continue to research Greggs to get a better picture of the stock by looking at:

  1. Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for GRG’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for GRG’s outlook.

  2. Financial Health: Are GRG’s operations financially sustainable? Balance sheets can be hard to analyze, which is why we’ve done it for you. Check out our financial health checks here.

  3. Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.

NB: Figures in this article are calculated using data from the trailing twelve months from 29 December 2018. This may not be consistent with full year annual report figures.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.